The Hill: Pryor leads Huckabee 49-42 in poll

[Adlai Stevenson]

By Aaron Blake
June 27, 2007

Sen. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) leads former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) 49-42 in a hypothetical 2008 Senate match-up, according to a poll conducted last month by the state chapter of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

Huckabee has not shown any public interest in running against Pryor in 2008 and has said he is focused on his presidential ambitions. But some have speculated that the Senate might be a good fallback plan if the 10-year governor’s under-funded White House bid falls through.

Huckabee currently stands at less than 5 percent in most national polls, and he raised only $500,000 in the first quarter of the cycle.

The poll surveyed 496 likely voters between May 29 and 31 and had a margin of error of 4.5 percent. It asked respondents to answer 40 questions — the bulk of which were related to labor issues.

The match-up featured a lead-in description, which referred to Pryor as the “current United States Senator” who “has announced his candidacy for reelection.” It said Huckabee “has been mentioned as an opponent if he abandons his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination.”

Pryor and Huckabee both got “very favorable” or “somewhat favorable” ratings from about 60 percent of respondents.
Huckabee’s unfavorable rating, at 38 percent, was higher than Pryor’s (23 percent).

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/pryor-leads-huckabee-49-42-in-poll-2007-06-27.html

[Keystone Phil]

That's all? I don't think that Pryor is vulnerable but that certainly is not a sign of a safe incumbent.

[HardRCafé]

That's all? I don't think that Pryor is vulnerable but that certainly is a sign of a safe incumbent.

Indeed, no challenger ever has overcome an initial 7% deficit.

[Keystone Phil]

That's all? I don't think that Pryor is vulnerable but that certainly is a sign of a safe incumbent.

Indeed, no challenger ever has overcome an initial 7% deficit.

I meant to say that that is not a sign of a safe incumbent.

[Gabu]

That's all? I don't think that Pryor is vulnerable but that certainly is not a sign of a safe incumbent.

If I recall correctly, Kohl only led by a few points over Tommy Thompson.  That poll probably meant as much as this one does.

[Keystone Phil]

That's all? I don't think that Pryor is vulnerable but that certainly is not a sign of a safe incumbent.

If I recall correctly, Kohl only led by a few points over Tommy Thompson.  That poll probably meant as much as this one does.

Huckabee might actually run though.

[HardRCafé]

I meant to say that that is not a sign of a safe incumbent.

Good point, then.

[SPC]

That's all? I don't think that Pryor is vulnerable but that certainly is not a sign of a safe incumbent.

If I recall correctly, Kohl only led by a few points over Tommy Thompson.  That poll probably meant as much as this one does.

Huckabee might actually run though.

I think he'd be more likely to be the VP.

[Gabu]

That's all? I don't think that Pryor is vulnerable but that certainly is not a sign of a safe incumbent.

If I recall correctly, Kohl only led by a few points over Tommy Thompson.  That poll probably meant as much as this one does.

Huckabee might actually run though.

Might.  I personally doubt it, but we'll see.

[DownWithTheLeft]

That's all? I don't think that Pryor is vulnerable but that certainly is not a sign of a safe incumbent.

If I recall correctly, Kohl only led by a few points over Tommy Thompson.  That poll probably meant as much as this one does.

You don't Thompson would have beaten Kohl?

[Gabu]

That's all? I don't think that Pryor is vulnerable but that certainly is not a sign of a safe incumbent.

If I recall correctly, Kohl only led by a few points over Tommy Thompson.  That poll probably meant as much as this one does.

You don't Thompson would have beaten Kohl?

I don't think that Thompson was going to run, making the poll meaningless.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Huckabee's support was drying up in Arkansas when he was reelected last time and won a narrow race against the dems in 2002 when the GOP were strong in that state. I think his time may be up either as a national candidate or as a senator. Mark Pryor has not angered the independents who tend to vote more conservative in Arkansas, especially with his Iraq votes not to cut off funding for the troops.

[Verily]

Indeed, I recall Huckabee having a lot of problems because his wife was involved in some major state-level scandal, and that he left office with only middling approval ratings.

[TheresNoMoney]

No way that Huckabee runs for Senate.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Indeed, I recall Huckabee having a lot of problems because his wife was involved in some major state-level scandal, and that he left office with only middling approval ratings.

Which makes it surprising to say the least that Pryor is only up by 7 here (and under 50).  I'd have expected a stronger lead.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I know Mark Pryor personally, and he is a wonderful Senator.  Arkansas is a much more Democratic state than people give it credit for, and Pryor is very popular.  His dad served in the Senate for 24 years, and was also the governor.  If Hillary wins Arkansas (which I think she will), then Pryor should coast to reelection.

[RBH]

I wonder how badly Pryor can cut up Huckabee on the "Federal Sales Tax" idea (the "Fair"tax that Huckabee is backing)

[Democratic Hawk]

I know Mark Pryor personally, and he is a wonderful Senator.  Arkansas is a much more Democratic state than people give it credit for, and Pryor is very popular.  His dad served in the Senate for 24 years, and was also the governor.  If Hillary wins Arkansas (which I think she will), then Pryor should coast to reelection.

Yes, Arkansas is a very democratic state; however, I've found something that, initially, took me rather by surprise

Assuming all states allocated their Electoral votes in the same way as Maine and Nebraska, Arkansas would have been the only 'Dixie' state not to have cast a single vote for Kerry. Then it occurred to me, that she has no African-American majority congressional districts

Pryor should be re-elected easily enough in 2008

Dave

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Pryor is a horrible person, but he is still much better than Huckabee.

[Democratic Hawk]

Pryor is a horrible person, but he is still much better than Huckabee.

He's the right kind of Democrat for Arkansas. That's all that matters

Dave

[jokerman]

I know Mark Pryor personally, and he is a wonderful Senator.  Arkansas is a much more Democratic state than people give it credit for, and Pryor is very popular.  His dad served in the Senate for 24 years, and was also the governor.  If Hillary wins Arkansas (which I think she will), then Pryor should coast to reelection.

Yes, Arkansas is a very democratic state; however, I've found something that, initially, took me rather by surprise

Assuming all states allocated their Electoral votes in the same way as Maine and Nebraska, Arkansas would have been the only 'Dixie' state not to have cast a single vote for Kerry. Then it occurred to me, that she has no African-American majority congressional districts
Dave

Right, Arkansas doesn't gerrymander.  Plus it would be very, very hard to create a black-dominated congressional district.  Few counties at all are black-majority.  On the other hand there are few yellow dog holdouts (going Democratic for even Kerry and giving Beebe totals in the 70s) that combined with black that combined with black-counties would produce a legitiment gerrymandered district.  Thankfully, Arkansas won't have anything close to a GOP legislature for a very long time (hopefully forever).

[RBH]

Plus it would be very, very hard to create a black-dominated congressional district.  Few counties at all are black-majority.

I tried creating a black majority district made out of state senate/house districts (I forget which). I got a district with a 47% African-American population.

Here's the map:



So yes, Preston is right. Arkansas is the sancutary for White Dems in the South.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Plus it would be very, very hard to create a black-dominated congressional district.  Few counties at all are black-majority.

I tried creating a black majority district made out of state senate/house districts (I forget which). I got a district with a 47% African-American population.

Here's the map:



So yes, Preston is right. Arkansas is the sancutary for White Dems in the South.

Probably the grey one I suspect. 

[Democratic Hawk]

Plus it would be very, very hard to create a black-dominated congressional district.  Few counties at all are black-majority.

I tried creating a black majority district made out of state senate/house districts (I forget which). I got a district with a 47% African-American population.

Here's the map:



So yes, Preston is right. Arkansas is the sancutary for White Dems in the South.

Probably the grey one I suspect. 

I suspect the green one since it borders the Mississippi. Most of the counties both sides of the river seem presidentially Democratic, and I dare say with large African American populations and it looks like it includes Pulaski, which has a significant minority African-American population

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Would that map harm Boozman in AR-03 [assuming yellow would be 03]

Dave