MD Sen Democratic primary: Who wins?

[wbrocks67]

I think the Alsobrooks late surge is real-

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1790153101518811216

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If Alsobrooks has a sizeable win I think there’s a good arguement that pollsters undersample urban blacks. The same thing happened in 2022 with Wes Moore was was polling around 20% but then won with 32%.

If this is true on a larger scale then that could be a good sign for Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania

[Tekken_Guy]

If Alsobrooks has a sizeable win I think there’s a good arguement that pollsters undersample urban blacks. The same thing happened in 2022 with Wes Moore was was polling around 20% but then won with 32%.

If this is true on a larger scale then that could be a good sign for Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania

And Georgia…

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Alsobrooks has a sizeable win I think there’s a good arguement that pollsters undersample urban blacks. The same thing happened in 2022 with Wes Moore was was polling around 20% but then won with 32%.

If this is true on a larger scale then that could be a good sign for Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania

I think this will end up being the case, simultaneously while Trump horrifically underperforms, and we get one day of discussion saying "okay, maybe Biden can still win," and then that conversation will be nullified by a poll taken at face value of Trump leading in Hawaii by 15 points or something.

[David Hume]

Trone. Electability is a big issue in this primary since we have to beat Hogan.

How is Trone, a white male super rich self-funder with scandals, more electable than Alsobrooks, a black female that is supported by the whole party apparatus?

[David Hume]

I'm thinking Trone at this point. PPP not giving the primary numbers is telling. There's only six days left and Trone has been in the driver's seat the entire time. Alsobrooks just hasn't made a compelling enough case as to why Trone supporters should switch to her. Despite her endorsements, she doesn't have an ideological angle or an electability angle to persuade people. She's relying solely on the endorsements and on making history as a Black woman, but that doesn't make enough of a difference.

Alsobrooks. Both two polls in May have Alsobrooks leading now.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Trone. Electability is a big issue in this primary since we have to beat Hogan.

How is Trone, a white male super rich self-funder with scandals, more electable than Alsobrooks, a black female that is supported by the whole party apparatus?

He consistently polls better than her?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can't wait til Alsobrooks win

[Beet]

Trone. Electability is a big issue in this primary since we have to beat Hogan.

How is Trone, a white male super rich self-funder with scandals, more electable than Alsobrooks, a black female that is supported by the whole party apparatus?

He consistently polls better than her?

Alsobrooks is up 10 points in the latest poll. Trone is up 11 points. But Hogan is at 38% in both, and 21% never heard of Alsobrooks vs. just 14% for Trone, so the 1 point difference is likely name recognition.

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/maryland-2024-poll-alsobrooks-42-trone-41/

[Agafin]

Maryland gets to avoid criticism because it's not a swing state but I distinctly remeber them counting votes very slowly in 2022, similar to California or Arizona. Will we even know the result tonight if it's close-ish?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Alsobrooks by 4.

[Oppo]

Maryland gets to avoid criticism because it's not a swing state but I distinctly remeber them counting votes very slowly in 2022, similar to California or Arizona. Will we even know the result tonight if it's close-ish?

You can blame Larry Hogan for that — he vetoed a bill that would have allowed mail-in-ballots to be counted early!

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

My prediction is the same as when the race started.

Alsobrooks beats Trone 55/45

[David Hume]

Maryland gets to avoid criticism because it's not a swing state but I distinctly remeber them counting votes very slowly in 2022, similar to California or Arizona. Will we even know the result tonight if it's close-ish?

You can blame Larry Hogan for that — he vetoed a bill that would have allowed mail-in-ballots to be counted early!

Didn't Dem have vetoproof supermajority?

[2016]

Maryland gets to avoid criticism because it's not a swing state but I distinctly remeber them counting votes very slowly in 2022, similar to California or Arizona. Will we even know the result tonight if it's close-ish?

You can blame Larry Hogan for that — he vetoed a bill that would have allowed mail-in-ballots to be counted early!

Didn't Dem have vetoproof supermajority?

Betting Markets have Alsobrooks ahead!

[President Johnson]

I think the Alsobrooks late surge is real-

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1790153101518811216

If true, that would actually vindicate several posters on this forum that have predicted that. And would bode well for our predictions about early general election polls being moot or outright nonsense... ergo Hogan is going to crater in November.

[Oryxslayer]

Maryland gets to avoid criticism because it's not a swing state but I distinctly remeber them counting votes very slowly in 2022, similar to California or Arizona. Will we even know the result tonight if it's close-ish?

You can blame Larry Hogan for that — he vetoed a bill that would have allowed mail-in-ballots to be counted early!

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1790484089868370270?t=xltVLx-ChrNivoPl-_6qUQ&...

Here's that timeline.  If things are close, like they were in the gov primary in 2022, then there won't be a call.

[Mr. Smith]

STOP TEH COUNT WE HAVE TRONEMENTUM!

[Oryxslayer]

STOP TEH COUNT WE HAVE TRONEMENTUM!

These initial results actually seem really bad for Trone in counties that are majority White even in Dem registration.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Alsobrooks takes the lead with a big dump from PG County where she gets 70%. Not sure if that will be enough though.

[Oryxslayer]

If Trone doesn't get a landslide result in Montgomery County, then this is probably callable. Those numbers in the majority-White counties do not suggest a close race.

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Alsobrooks only up 12 in Baltimore City. She's still in the lead by 1% even after more vote dumps came in having her get creamed on the Eastern Shore and in Trone's district. She's not losing Montgomery County as badly as I thought at the moment (8%), but I'm unsure if those votes are from Raskin's district and not Trone's.

[Oryxslayer]

Alsobrooks only up 12 in Baltimore City. She's still in the lead by 1% even after more vote dumps came in having her get creamed on the Eastern Shore and in Trone's district. She's not losing Montgomery County as badly as I thought at the moment (8%), but I'm unsure if those votes are from Raskin's district and not Trone's.

Look at the timeline from above. This is mostly EV and early-mail. Aka in theory Trone's best groups. And he lost In person EV 53-43, and won early-counted mail 55-42. The in-person tells us the upcoming direction of travel.

[Beet]

It's not looking good for Alsobrooks... she's only leading in 2 counties, PG and Prince Charles, and Baltimore City. And PG has a higher % in than the rest of the state. But it's going to be close. She'd have to rely on ED vote breaking for her.

[wbrocks67]

If Trone doesn't get a landslide result in Montgomery County, then this is probably callable. Those numbers in the majority-White counties do not suggest a close race.

Trone only being up 8 with the early vote there doesn't seem to bode well for him.

Didn't expect Alsobrooks to be in the statewide lead either with the early vote.