Georgia Supreme Court Election

[GAinDC]

Gender gap is also 13 points. Is that typical?

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

I think we'll flip this one. There seems to be almost no enthusiasm for the R side, i doubt half of them even know its happening.

[Duke of York]

is this a general election for this seat?

[GAinDC]

is this a general election for this seat?

Yup -- winner take all

[wbrocks67]

Gender gap is also 13 points. Is that typical?

Yeah, looks like its been about Female +11-13-ish since 2020 for the EV. Though this seems to be the most female of the bunch by a hair.

Black turnout looks good among the EV compared to previous. It's just this one is a bit more white than previous.

2020
57% white, 28% black
55% female, 43% male

2022
57% white, 29% black
55% female, 44% male

2022 runoff
55% white, 32% black
56% female, 44% male

2024
61% white, 30% black
56% female, 43% male

[GAinDC]

Gender gap is also 13 points. Is that typical?

Yeah, looks like its been about Female +11-13-ish since 2020 for the EV. Though this seems to be the most female of the bunch by a hair.

Black turnout looks good among the EV compared to previous. It's just this one is a bit more white than previous.

2020
57% white, 28% black
55% female, 43% male

2022
57% white, 29% black
55% female, 44% male

2022 runoff
55% white, 32% black
56% female, 44% male

2024
61% white, 30% black
56% female, 43% male

very interesting -- thanks!

[wbrocks67]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

[Oryxslayer]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

[SnowLabrador]

That's today, huh? I'm rooting for Barrow - maybe that'll assuage my fears a bit if he wins. It's pretty shocking that Georgia had such good trends for Democrats, and now it's seen as one of Biden's weakest swing states.

[wbrocks67]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

Cant wait for the hot takes on how Biden is losing GA by 10 if Barrow loses decently

[Sir Mohamed]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

Cant wait for the hot takes on how Biden is losing GA by 10 if Barrow loses decently

And if not, Biden is also doomed because this election is very different from a presidential race.

[GAinDC]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

I don't think Barrow will win, but it'll probably be closer because of the partisan nature it has taken on.

But it may show us interesting trends below the surface. For example, if Barrow overperforms in those blue trending ATL suburbs, it might tell us something about November

[wbrocks67]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

Cant wait for the hot takes on how Biden is losing GA by 10 if Barrow loses decently

And if not, Biden is also doomed because this election is very different from a presidential race.

Honestly, even if Barrow performed a miracle and somehow won, we all know that's how it would play. The "this means nothing for November" gang would be out in full force

[GeorgiaModerate]

I didn't realize though that the ballot apparently says "incumbent" next to the Rs name, so I assume that will likely help him

That's why its very, very hard for 'nonpartisan' court justices anywhere to lose. Unless there is a party label, or the court gets uber-politicized like Wisconsin, these races are usually quiet retentions. This sometimes leads to weird or even decades-old political coalitions showing up.

That we are even discussing such a race is unique.

I don't think Barrow will win, but it'll probably be closer because of the partisan nature it has taken on.

But it may show us interesting trends below the surface. For example, if Barrow overperforms in those blue trending ATL suburbs, it might tell us something about November

This is my take as well.

[GAinDC]

According to Election Twitter, the early vote looks really bad for Barrow as it skews pretty white and older.

But doesn't it seem like it's middle aged and older women (from the Second Wave Feminism era when Roe became law) are the angriest about Dobbs, since they can see the full picture of fighting for that right and then watch it being taken away?

Idk, maybe I'm overthinking this and the race is just too under the radar for Barrow to even have a chance

[wbrocks67]

According to Election Twitter, the early vote looks really bad for Barrow as it skews pretty white and older.

But doesn't it seem like it's middle aged and older women (from the Second Wave Feminism era when Roe became law) that are the angriest about Dobbs, since they can see the full picture of fighting for that right and then watch it being taken away?

Idk, maybe I'm overthinking this and the race is just too under the radar for Barrow to even have a chance

Yeah it's hard to tell b/c while the electorate is certainly older, it's more female (slightly) than any EV period since 2020. So at the very least, you likely have older females voting which would be better for Barrow than older males.

But yeah, the 65+ share is definitely a lot higher than any EV period as well. Though it's still 30% black, which isn't bad. Also depends on election day voting, if younger/non white voters decide to come out today.

[DaleCooper]

According to Election Twitter

[GAinDC]

According to Election Twitter

lol true

[GAinDC]

I think we'll flip this one. There seems to be almost no enthusiasm for the R side, i doubt half of them even know its happening.

But do Dems?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just voted at my precinct in western Forsyth County.  There was one other voter present; I joked to the poll worker that they looked overwhelmed, and she said well, it's starting to pick up.  I was voter #122 at the precinct, but I have nothing to compare that to because I usually do early voting (just never got around to it for this election).

[wbrocks67]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/21/us/elections/results-georgia-primary.html

NYT isn't even bothering to do a map for it. -_______-

[GAinDC]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/21/us/elections/results-georgia-primary.html

NYT isn't even bothering to do a map for it. -_______-

Aww, at the very least they could do that...

I guess the SOS website is the next best option?

[SnowLabrador]

CNN also has a map. Of course, we still have a few hours to go.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at turnout patterns so far I think the Conservative Incumbent lie favored to hold on. Metro Atlanta counties like Cobb and Gwinnett aren’t doing so well aren’t wise relative to most rural parts of the state. The only real positive for Dems with turnout right now is heavily black parts of the Atlanta metro seem to be holding up relatively well.

Hispanic and Asian areas seem to be doing the worse relative to 2020 turnout (which was already poor).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I just voted at my precinct in western Forsyth County.  There was one other voter present; I joked to the poll worker that they looked overwhelmed, and she said well, it's starting to pick up.  I was voter #122 at the precinct, but I have nothing to compare that to because I usually do early voting (just never got around to it for this election).

Are you in one of those giant 20k people precincts in Forsyth County - if so that seems pretty horrible for turnout.