Prediction stagnation?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

just might take a little bit to update, the last two tossup predictions were within the last hour or so, the last one was within the last 20 minutes, which is what actually moves it back to tossup

Except that the previous predictions from those people also had Pennsylvania as a tossup.  None of the four predictions made so far today (07-14) have had any change in the person's prediction for Pennsylvania.

[Smash255]

just might take a little bit to update, the last two tossup predictions were within the last hour or so, the last one was within the last 20 minutes, which is what actually moves it back to tossup

Except that the previous predictions from those people also had Pennsylvania as a tossup.  None of the four predictions made so far today (07-14) have had any change in the person's prediction for Pennsylvania.

With one more prediction with a tossup it now shows tossup on the map.  Only think I can think of as to why it showed lean when GOP lean + tossup was one higher than lean + strong Dem is if the Ind vote counted for the Dems for some reason

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's been one week since I last did this:

Here are the States that would need 10 or fewer of the existing 207 (+10 from last time) predictions to be changed to affect the map (assuming my idea of how the results are being tabulated is correct).  Only the changes marked below in bold would affect the line graph:

Delaware: 7 (+1 from last time) Weak D or lower to Strong D would change the prediction from Weak D to Strong D.

Hawaii: 9 (+3 from last time) Strong D to Weak D or less would change the prediction from Strong D to Weak D.

Missouri: 8 (+1 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak R or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak R.

New Hampshire: 9 (+1 from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or lower would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.

Pennsylvania: 2 (+5  from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or lower would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.



Pennsylvania has changed condition since last time, which is why I note the margin is up 5 from last time despite it being only 2.  No new close predictions.  Of the five close predictions 1 improved in favor of the Republicans, 4 for the Democrats.  Unless we see more change than usual, the only change that would be a possibility for next time would be a return of Pennsylvania to tossup status.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's been one week since I last did this:

Here are the States that would need 11 (+1 from last time)  or fewer of the existing 220  (+13 from last time) predictions to be changed to affect the map (assuming my idea of how the results are being tabulated is correct).  Only the changes marked below in bold would affect the line graph:

Delaware: 4 (-3 from last time) Weak D or lower to Strong D would change the prediction from Weak D to Strong D.

Missouri: 11 (+3 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak R or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak R.

Nevada: 10 (new to list) D> 40% or stronger to D>30% or lower world change the prediction from D>40% to D>30%.

New Hampshire: 7 (-2 from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or lower would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.

Pennsylvania: 3 (+1  from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or lower would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.



Hawaii is no longer close enough to be considered a potential candidate for switching from Strong D to Weak D.

Nevada has just barely returned to being within reach of a change in its predicted percentage.

Of the six predictions tracked this time or last time, 2 showed Republican improvement, 3 Democratic, and 1 has to be considered a walk given that the margin has now increased from 10 to 11.  We're floating in statistical noise right now.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's been two weeks since I last did this:

Here are the States that would need 13 (+2 from last time)  or fewer of the existing 254  (+34 from last time) predictions to be changed to affect the map (assuming my idea of how the results are being tabulated is correct).  Only the changes marked below in bold would affect the line graph:

Delaware: 4 (+0 from last time) Weak D or lower to Strong D would change the prediction from Weak D to Strong D.

Hawaii: 13 (new since last time) Strong D to Weak D or newer would change the prediction from Strong D to Weak D.

Missouri: 10 (-1 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak R or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak R.

New Hampshire: 12 (+5 from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or lower would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.

Pennsylvania: 6 (+3  from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or lower would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.



More statistical noise, which is to be expected in the absence of any events in the past two weeks likely to change results.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It's been two and a half weeks since I last did this:

Here are the States that would need 14 (+1 from last time)  or fewer of the existing 287  (+33 from last time) predictions to be changed to affect the map (assuming my idea of how the results are being tabulated is correct).  Only the changes marked below in bold would affect the line graph:

Arkansas: 5 (new since last time) Weak R or stronger to Tossup or weaker would change the prediction form Weak R to tossup.

Colorado: 12 (new since last time) D>40% or stronger to D>30% or weaker would change the prediction from D>40% to D>30%.

Delaware: 4 (+0 from last time) Weak D or lower to Strong D would change the prediction from Weak D to Strong D.

Missouri: 13 (+3 from last time) Tossup or lower to Weak R or higher would change the prediction from Tossup to Weak R.

New Hampshire: 11 (-1 from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or lower would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.

Pennsylvania: 12 (+6 from last time) Weak D or higher to Tossup or lower would change the prediction from Weak D to Tossup.



More statistical noise.

[Jaggerjack]

Bleh. Delaware keeps bouncing back and fourth between lean Dem and strong Dem.

[Hatman 🍁]

wtf? Arkansas should be at least a tossup by now, but people haven't changed their predictions yet.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

wtf? Arkansas should be at least a tossup by now, but people haven't changed their predictions yet.

Why should they?  I haven't heard of any news that has caused me to want to change my prediction of July 20.

[Verily]

wtf? Arkansas should be at least a tossup by now, but people haven't changed their predictions yet.

Why should they?  I haven't heard of any news that has caused me to want to change my prediction of July 20.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=61264.0

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I said news, not polls.  Clinton, while the front runner, is not yet the nominee.  She also has a significant name recognition advantage in Arkanasas that I doubt any of the Republican nominees have done enough to offset yet, since they are largely conceding that state to Huckabee so they can concentrate on states for which a Mega-Tuesday loss would be harder to spin, but which the eventual nominee will have rectified come November 2008.  Show me a Clinton-Huckabee poll with her having a 20 point lead, and I'll take notice.  At this point, Arkansas general election polls are largely meaningless.

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.katv.com/news/stories/0806/355707.html

It's not 20 points, but it's a large lead nonetheless.

[Јas]

Stagnation in the Prediction Stagnation thread.


or else needs more statistical analysis...either way, get back to it Ernest!