The Hill: State by State: Pennsylvannia, Georgia, Oklahoma, Oregon, Maryland

[Adlai Stevenson]

By The Hill Staff
June 29, 2007

Pennsylvania

Freshman Rep. Joe Sestak (D), sure to be a top GOP target in 2008, told supporters in a fundraising e-mail this week that he hasn’t focused on his reelection war chest over the last three months.

“Unfortunately, I have been late in turning to fundraising this quarter due to the demands of trying to be a good Congressman,” Sestak wrote. “I guess it means that I am doing my job.”

Whatever Sestak’s second-quarter numbers turn out to be, he was one of the top Democratic fundraisers in the first quarter.

In the first three months of the cycle, he pulled in about $450,000 despite not being a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Frontline program, which protects vulnerable incumbents. Most Democratic freshmen are in the program.

No major challengers have entered the race yet.

— Aaron Blake


Georgia

Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) comfortably leads the two Democrats who have stepped forward to challenge him, but his support for the current Senate immigration bill has pushed his approval rating down to 50 percent, according to a new Strategic Vision poll.

Chambliss leads DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones 55-31 and former television reporter Dale Cardwell 56-28. Jones has been in the race for months; Cardwell recently left his job to pursue a bid.

Both opponents have run to the right of Chambliss on illegal immigration, and only 23 percent of those polled supported a description of the Senate immigration bill.

Chambliss’s disapproval rating was 39 percent.

A poll conducted last month by InsiderAdvantage had Chambliss narrowly edging former Gov. Roy Barnes (D), who has shown no interest in the race. The race is not a top Democratic target.

— A. B.

Former Rep. Max Burns (R) has accepted a job at North Georgia College and State University, where he starts Monday. The move appears to make it unlikely that Burns will pursue a third straight race against Rep. John Barrow (D) in the 12th district.

Burns will head the school’s business administration department and is listed on its faculty page. An office spokeswoman said the move was several months in the making.

He lost to Barrow by less than 1 percent in 2006 after falling four points shy in 2004.

Burns announced his last candidacy in May 2005, meaning he would already be starting at a later date this cycle.

Burns declined to comment through his spokeswoman.

— A. B.


Maryland

Democrat Donna Edwards was scheduled to hold a fundraiser in Washington last night and will officially launch her primary campaign against Rep. Albert Wynn (D) on Saturday.

Edwards nearly pulled off a shocking upset last cycle, falling 50-46 to Wynn.

This cycle, the primary has been moved up to February. Wynn has already launched his campaign — a nod to Edwards’s strong showing in 2006 and her earlier start this time.

The kickoff will be held at Watkins Regional Park in Upper Marlboro, Md.

— A. B.


Oklahoma

State Sen. Andrew Rice (D) will step up his exploration of a bid against Sen. James Inhofe (R) and begin traveling the state, according to a statement he posted on a website seeking to draft him.

“Running for the United States Senate is difficult, and I have had several conversations about it with my wife and many of my friends and family,” Rice wrote on runandrewrun.com. “They are all very encouraging and supportive.”

Fellow state Sen. Kenneth Corn (D) also said last week that he will examine a bid at the urging of supporters, according to local reports. Corn, 30, was elected to the state House at the age of 22.

Rice’s older brother was killed in the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001. Rice, 34, is in his first term in the legislature.
He told the Associated Press in mid-June that he hopes to make a decision “in the next month or so.”

— A. B.


Oregon

Radio talk-show host and former county commissioner Jeff Golden (D) is thinking about a run against Sen. Gordon Smith (R) in 2008, according to several reports.

Golden hosts a show on public radio and also writes books and a newspaper column.

He was a Jackson County commissioner in the late 1980s and lost a bid for state Senate shortly thereafter.

State Sen. Alan Bates (D) is also weighing a bid. Two members of the state’s Democratic delegation — Reps. Peter DeFazio
and Earl Blumenauer — have declined to run for the seat, as has former Gov. John Kitzhaber.

— A. B.
http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/state-by-state-pennsylvannia-georgia-oklahoma-oregon-maryland-2007-06-29.html

[HardRCafé]

Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) comfortably leads the two Democrats who have stepped forward to challenge him, but his support for the current Senate immigration bill has pushed his approval rating down to 50 percent, according to a new Strategic Vision poll.

He has been a solid "no" vote for some time.

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak won't be a top target unless U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan gets in the race. I don't see any other candidate that could make it close. Even with Meehan in the race, Sestak is favored.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Sestak won't be a top target unless U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan gets in the race. I don't see any other candidate that could make it close. Even with Meehan in the race, Sestak is favored.

Kerry won the District 56%-44% in 2004 and Sestak won 53%-47% in 2006, or was it the other way around?  I can't remember now. 

[Keystone Phil]

Sestak won't be a top target unless U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan gets in the race. I don't see any other candidate that could make it close. Even with Meehan in the race, Sestak is favored.

Kerry won the District 56%-44% in 2004 and Sestak won 53%-47% in 2006, or was it the other way around?  I can't remember now. 

I thought Sestak carried it with 57%.

[Mr.Phips]

Sestak won't be a top target unless U.S. Attorney Pat Meehan gets in the race. I don't see any other candidate that could make it close. Even with Meehan in the race, Sestak is favored.

Kerry won the District 56%-44% in 2004 and Sestak won 53%-47% in 2006, or was it the other way around?  I can't remember now. 

I thought Sestak carried it with 57%.

He did, and Kerry carried it by 53%-47%. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

according to DCPolitical Report, these are Sestak's declared opponents: GOP activist Andrew Reilly (R), Michael Puppio (R)

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

[TeePee4Prez]

according to DCPolitical Report, these are Sestak's declared opponents: GOP activist Andrew Reilly (R), Michael Puppio (R)

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

I'm not too worried about the Southeast seats at all.  In fact in PA-6, we're looking MUCH better than in 2006.  PA-10 was a miracle and I'm thinking we'll lose that seat.  I think DKos is too optimistic.  They're basically saying PA could be all Dem except PA 5, 9, 16, and 19.  Wishful thinking, but I know that could never happen.  Here's my order as of now:

PA 10 D->R
PA 6 R->D

I think the above will actually happen

PA 18 R->D
PA 4 D->R corrected

Big Gap.

PA 15 R->D

Above COULD happen.  Gap widens after this

PA 3 R->D
PA 8 D->R
PA 7 D->R

Below would need either a 1994 scenario and/or a marquee candidate or a scandal

PA 17 D->R
PA 13 D->R

[Keystone Phil]

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

So you totally ignored the points about U.S. Attorney Meehan. Typical.

I'm not too worried about the Southeast seats at all.  In fact in PA-6, we're looking MUCH better than in 2006.

Uh, how?

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Hahaha...right. They're insane. They do realize that 10 and 17 have GOP registration advantages, right?

[socaldem]

according to DCPolitical Report, these are Sestak's declared opponents: GOP activist Andrew Reilly (R), Michael Puppio (R)

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

I'm not too worried about the Southeast seats at all.  In fact in PA-6, we're looking MUCH better than in 2006.  PA-10 was a miracle and I'm thinking we'll lose that seat.  I think DKos is too optimistic.  They're basically saying PA could be all Dem except PA 5, 9, 16, and 19.  Wishful thinking, but I know that could never happen.  Here's my order as of now:

PA 10 D->R
PA 6 R->D

I think the above will actually happen

PA 18 R->D

Big Gap.

PA 15 R->D

Above COULD happen.  Gap widens after this

PA 3 R->D
PA 8 D->R
PA 7 D->R

Below would need either a 1994 scenario and/or a marquee candidate or a scandal

PA 17 D->R
PA 13 D->R

Why so optimistic on PA-06?

Where does PA-04 fit into your scheme?

[TeePee4Prez]

according to DCPolitical Report, these are Sestak's declared opponents: GOP activist Andrew Reilly (R), Michael Puppio (R)

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

I'm not too worried about the Southeast seats at all.  In fact in PA-6, we're looking MUCH better than in 2006.  PA-10 was a miracle and I'm thinking we'll lose that seat.  I think DKos is too optimistic.  They're basically saying PA could be all Dem except PA 5, 9, 16, and 19.  Wishful thinking, but I know that could never happen.  Here's my order as of now:

PA 10 D->R
PA 6 R->D

I think the above will actually happen

PA 18 R->D
PA 4 D->R corrected

Big Gap.

PA 15 R->D

Above COULD happen.  Gap widens after this

PA 3 R->D
PA 8 D->R
PA 7 D->R

Below would need either a 1994 scenario and/or a marquee candidate or a scandal

PA 17 D->R
PA 13 D->R

Corrected to show PA 4.

I'm optimistic about PA 6 because you have State Rep. Mike Gerber as a candidate with the possibility of State Sen. Andy Dinniman.  Both are far superior candidates to Lois Murphy.

[TeePee4Prez]

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

So you totally ignored the points about U.S. Attorney Meehan. Typical.

I'm not too worried about the Southeast seats at all.  In fact in PA-6, we're looking MUCH better than in 2006.

Uh, how?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hahaha...right. They're insane. They do realize that 10 and 17 have GOP registration advantages, right?

Yes Phil I realize that and am also calling for PA 10 to flip back considering you have a large field of candidates plus it's a very GOP area.  If Scranton was in the district, I'd still call it for Carney, but considering the Dem areas are in PA 11 in NE Pennsylvania, it will be tough for Carney to hold.

Pat Murphy is not going anywhere and is making a name for himself already.  Mike Fitzpatrick took positions outside the views of his district and got burnt despite his prior popularity.  2008 will be no different and a comeback attmept will be an uphill battle for Mike Fitzpatrick.

[bullmoose88]

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

So you totally ignored the points about U.S. Attorney Meehan. Typical.

I'm not too worried about the Southeast seats at all.  In fact in PA-6, we're looking MUCH better than in 2006.

Uh, how?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hahaha...right. They're insane. They do realize that 10 and 17 have GOP registration advantages, right?

Pat Murphy is not going anywhere and is making a name for himself already.  Mike Fitzpatrick took positions outside the views of his district and got burnt despite his prior popularity.  2008 will be no different and a comeback attmept will be an uphill battle for Mike Fitzpatrick.

Its hard to tell what sort of job Murphy's done...i havent seen much in the courier's editorial pages either way.

But I agree, Murphy seems to be the favorite here, almost clear favorite...its gonna be hard to say, lets replace him with the guy who was there last time barring any sort of screw up by Pat...which hasn't happened.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes Phil I realize that and am also calling for PA 10 to flip back considering you have a large field of candidates plus it's a very GOP area.  If Scranton was in the district, I'd still call it for Carney, but considering the Dem areas are in PA 11 in NE Pennsylvania, it will be tough for Carney to hold.

Well, I am glad you are sane though there is still that small chance that Carney can hang on.

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Fitz did not lose because of your belief that he was some radical right winger. He was running against a young Iraq veteran. If it was anyone else, you would still be calling Fitz "Congressman Fitzpatrick." Murphy is making a name for himself. He's working. He's popular. Fitz might be wavering on the idea of a comeback because of this. The race will be tough for him but he could still win back the seat. Advantage is definetley for Murphy though.

Its hard to tell what sort of job Murphy's done...i havent seen much in the courier's editorial pages either way.

Look, you know how I feel about Murphy. I have to give him credit though. He's working hard.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Well, they may be reluctant to replace him but it won't be a "Let's replace him with the old guy" argument. Fitz is more than that and you know that. Fitz is better known and has been around much longer. He's a strong candidate. We'll have to see if that translates into enough to get rid of Murphy which, as I said before, probably won't be good enough since Murphy is riding high.

[J. J.]

The grand jury is still investigating Weldon, and that could take some of the GOP leadership out in that county.  There are also some civil suits pending.  They got problems.

Prediction, Dems hold PA 6.

[Keystone Phil]

The grand jury is still investigating Weldon, and that could take some of the GOP leadership out in that county.  There are also some civil suits pending.  They got problems.

Prediction, Dems hold PA 6.

Oh, they have obvious problems down there. I am not counting on a pickup. By the way, that would be PA 7. 

[they don't love you like i love you]

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

So you totally ignored the points about U.S. Attorney Meehan. Typical.

I don't know anything about him, what am I supposed to say? Although you admitted Sestak is favored in any race, and as I pointed out, his current opponents are jokes.

[Keystone Phil]

So basically, a "GOP activist" (aka wingnut) and a guy who doesn't even have a website up. I bet Sestak sure is scared!

So you totally ignored the points about U.S. Attorney Meehan. Typical.

I don't know anything about him, what am I supposed to say?

Don't make jokes about how Sestak isn't scared at all.

[Rob]

Oh, they have obvious problems down there. I am not counting on a pickup.

I guess you'll have to be content with the dozens of others you make in the great Republican sweep of 2008, right?

[Keystone Phil]

Oh, they have obvious problems down there. I am not counting on a pickup.

I guess you'll have to be content with the dozens of others you make in the great Republican sweep of 2008, right?

Yes, because I have suggested such a thing. 

You really have become quite the annoying troll.