NYT/Siena: PA--Trump +3, WI-Biden +2, MI-Trump +7, GA-Trump +10, NV-Trump +12, AZ-Trump +7

[Minnesota Mike]

Wasn't GoTFan basically trying to convince everyone on election night 2020 that Trump would win Wisconsin and it was a lost cause for Biden? Like, while the votes were still being counted?

As I explained above (that you just decided to ignore) I generally assume the worst case scenario for everything.

Then what do you add to the discussion? I appreciate anyone's honest opinion even if I don't agree with it but when you readily admit your default position is to believe the worst for one side your opinion becomes meaningless.

[AltWorlder]

Have to wonder if the ANZAC nations' politics are less cooked than the rest of the Anglosphere

[Tekken_Guy]

It's looking like the situation the Tories & Liberal Party in the UK & Canada are facing is starting to look like Biden's fate. We know there is no going back for the Tories right now pretty much the same for Trudeau. I think we need to start thinking there is no coming back for Biden with the electorate.

No it’s not, because Biden is still competitive in the rust belt.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am starting to think it was a mistake to indict Trump until after Eday, everyone called on Trump to get indicted before 22 midterm it's having the reverse effect and even if he is convicted he won't serve jail his conviction will be appealed to SCOTUS and they have Gorsuch, Alito and Thomas that will prevent Trump from serving jail right away

[Tekken_Guy]

Have to wonder if the ANZAC nations' politics are less cooked than the rest of the Anglosphere

For the last time, there is little to indicate Trump is a heavy favorite because he hasn’t solidified his position in the rust belt.

[Minnesota Mike]

Unpopular opinion, these are not bad polls for Biden.

The NYT polls and the 2 and 5 way averages all show the tipping point state currently around Trump 1-3 points. Of course team Biden would prefer it was the other way around but the polling does not show the disaster some are making it out to be.

[wbrocks67]

It's looking like the situation the Tories & Liberal Party in the UK & Canada are facing is starting to look like Biden's fate. We know there is no going back for the Tories right now pretty much the same for Trudeau. I think we need to start thinking there is no coming back for Biden with the electorate.

Once again - I'm gonna need people to really start taking some breaths here. This is not the end all be all of polling, we have literally gotten close polls in AZ and GA just in the last few weeks, let alone Biden leads in WI, MI and PA. You'd think we were getting Trump +20 polls right now and it was the week before the election.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unpopular opinion, these are not bad polls for Biden.

The NYT polls and the 2 and 5 way averages all show the tipping point state currently around Trump 1-3 points. Of course team Biden would prefer it was the other way around but the polling does not show the disaster some are making it out to be.

Yeah as I said most of the dooming is because of the H2H RV polls due to the catastrophic Michigan number there, even though every other MI poll shows a dead heat a la PA/WI.

[GAinDC]

It's looking like the situation the Tories & Liberal Party in the UK & Canada are facing is starting to look like Biden's fate. We know there is no going back for the Tories right now pretty much the same for Trudeau. I think we need to start thinking there is no coming back for Biden with the electorate.

Once again - I'm gonna need people to really start taking some breaths here. This is not the end all be all of polling, we have literally gotten close polls in AZ and GA just in the last few weeks, let alone Biden leads in WI, MI and PA. You'd think we were getting Trump +20 polls right now and it was the week before the election.

Atlas has always been like this. Sometimes I wish I had never discovered this forum because my friends who aren't as tuned in are absolutely not this fearful every election cycle. They follow the horse race headlines from afar, but it never seems to deter their support for their preferred party or candidate. I want that.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

Trump hasn’t really broken through in rust belt polling like he has in the sun belt. He has marginal leads at best in the three states and if Biden can sweep the trio he wins.

Earlier this year it was a bit different because Trump was often getting comfy leads in MI that we haven’t seen that much of lately.

[heatcharger]

Looks like TRUMP has a significant lead in Michigan.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

They are though? The polling averages are a tossup in MI, PA, and WI.

[wbrocks67]

Looks like TRUMP has a significant lead in Michigan.

Biden's +1/+3 in the LV

[Tekken_Guy]

Looks like TRUMP has a significant lead in Michigan.

Only in the LV H2H, Trump only leads by 2 in the 5-way and Biden leads both LV ballot tests.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

They are though? The polling averages are a tossup in MI, PA, and WI.

The polling averages have Trump up in all 3 and Biden needs all 3 three and NE-2. He at present is less than a coin flip in each one.

The chance of a coin landing on heads 3 straight times is 12.5%. Now if the states were actually true 50/50 chances Biden's odds would be better than that as there would be some correlation, but it still wouldn't reach 50%.

There is a chance that the polls are underestimating Biden, but there is at least an equal chance they are underestimating Trump (they have underestimated him in two straight elections). The margin of error works both ways.

That is not to mention that there is some polling showing that VA may be at risk. And if the Sunbelt numbers are accurate NM may be at risk as well. If Trump wins either he does not need the three rust belt swing states

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1790011165868769419

Two things can be true at once:

1. Biden is in a better polling position that he was a few months ago.
2. Trump still has a narrow edge.

Being on the wrong end of a toss-up race is still preferable to being a clear underdog like polling showed at the beginning of the year.

The polls are not pointing to a tossup race. Biden is still a clear underdog.

They are though? The polling averages are a tossup in MI, PA, and WI.

The polling averages have Trump up in all 3 and Biden needs all 3 three and NE-2. He at present is less than a coin flip in each one.

The chance of a coin landing on heads 3 straight times is 12.5%. Now if the states were actually true 50/50 chances Biden's odds would be better than that as there would be some correlation, but it still wouldn't reach 50%.

There is a chance that the polls are underestimating Biden, but there is at least an equal chance they are underestimating Trump (they have underestimated him in two straight elections). The margin of error works both ways.

That is not to mention that there is some polling showing that VA may be at risk. And if the Sunbelt numbers are accurate NM may be at risk as well. If Trump wins either he does not need the three rust belt swing states

Well the rust belt trio doesn’t move independent of each other. If Trump wins one of the three, that’s good for his chances in the other two, and vice versa.

[Matty]

You guys are assuming NE-2 is going to Biden, but, given the ~5 pt national shift in polling from 2020, it’s not at all clear to me that it’s likely Biden at this point. It’s as much a tossup as the rust belt states

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wasn't GoTFan basically trying to convince everyone on election night 2020 that Trump would win Wisconsin and it was a lost cause for Biden? Like, while the votes were still being counted?

As I explained above (that you just decided to ignore) I generally assume the worst case scenario for everything.

OK SnowLabrador.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

6 pages… idea we should lock replies in poll threads

[Arizona Iced Tea]

You guys are assuming NE-2 is going to Biden, but, given the ~5 pt national shift in polling from 2020, it’s not at all clear to me that it’s likely Biden at this point. It’s as much a tossup as the rust belt states

Well it's a urban blue trending small metro area in the Midwest, which was basically the heartland of the abortion backlash movement in 2022. If Biden is actually losing NE-02 then his campaign is royally screwed and it won't even end up mattering in the outcome.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

You guys are assuming NE-2 is going to Biden, but, given the ~5 pt national shift in polling from 2020, it’s not at all clear to me that it’s likely Biden at this point. It’s as much a tossup as the rust belt states

Well it's a urban blue trending small metro area in the Midwest, which was basically the heartland of the abortion backlash movement in 2022. If Biden is actually losing NE-02 then his campaign is royally screwed and it won't even end up mattering in the outcome.

Your incorrect if Ds win NH, NV, VA MI, PA and WI that's 270 irregardless of whatever happens in NE 2 you really believe in polls it's not time to vote yet

[Eraserhead]

6 pages… idea we should lock replies in poll threads

I mean the forum is literally called "Talk Elections" these days, isn't discussion of them a good thing?