Singapore General Election(2024/25)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong (LHL) has submitted his formal resignation effective may 15th and advised President Tharman Shanmugaratnam to appoint finance minister Lawrence Wong as his replacement. After more than 19 years in office, LHL has resigned a mostly successful prime ministership, though he lacked the same kind of international presence as his father he has kept the model stable, accepting necessary liberalisation and making appropriate u-turns when public sentiment bubbled up(like in 2011 against immigration), as well as allowing the existence of a formal parliamentary opposition(something his father has never accepted). His Singapore is clearly a freer place than that of his fathers, though he was also never afraid of suing a critic into bankruptcy using the country's strict libel laws. Singapore today is a richer, and most would agree better place to live than when he first took office though critics will point to a lack of focus on welfare and an increasing obsession with GDP metrics, along with a rising cost of living, as well as start of a possible housing crisis as week points.

Traditionaly(though there have only been 3 so it's hard to say if it's precedent) general elections are called in Singapore upon the elevation of a new prime minister and opposition parties have reacted as such. The Worker Party(WP) though the formal opposition is still beset with scandals which caused it to loose 3 out of it's 10 MP's* as well as the possible conviction of it's leader on charges arising from the resignation*. The  Social Democratic Party(SDP) has launched its campaign with its perennial leader Chee Soon Juan still at the helm, promising to campaign on immigration and foreign workers.

Lawrence Wong as finance minister lacks some of the profile of previous holders of that role, but has positioned himself as continuity candidate(duh). So far there's no real indication of any real break in policy from LHL but only time will tell. There are some worrying signs for the PAP, younger voters are less likely to vote for the PAP and there has been increasing frustration regarding a housing policy that seeks to disadvantage them at the expense of existing property owners**. Their previous gambit to hold a covid-election in 2020, and use the rally-around the flag effect to wipe the opposition totally out of parliament backfired with their first-time loss of a GRC.

My own personal view of the election is that a PAP majority is certain and it's a coin-flip if the opposition gains seats. The youth discontent pushing on the PAP hasn't faded away with non the PAP's initiatives to combat the frustration moving the needle much, New-built estates like Sengkang continue to concentrate more young families(key sources of opposition strength) but the opposition is remains incoherent. The PAPs Singapore is a concrete thing with communitarian social polices, limited welfare, openness to foreign investment, harsh approach to law & order, as well as substantial state ownership of the economy. The opposition is splintered into an incoherent mess, much of their populist strength derives from opposition to immigration (often of the racist variety) but the left-liberal who make-up much of the activist class for the opposition (even if they agree with the policies) find that fact deeply uncomfortable. The opposition might try to campaign on those grounds but they can't traffick in kind of rethoric to give it real strength, and the other populist personality cults than can are so appalling otherwise that no real electoral benefit can be clawed from the issue. The WP's argument is opposition not for the possibility of taking power but merely to provide a check on the PAP has provided a solid base, but limits its room for growth.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/sdp-to-campaign-on-immigration-and-foreign-worker-issues-for-upcoming-general-election


https://www.pmo.gov.sg/Newsroom/Letter-Exchange-between-PM-Lee-Hsien-Loong-and-President-Tharman-Shanmugaratnam

*MP Leon Perera's resgination on the grounds of a martial affair with party activist Nicole Seah is unlikely to have much effect given it was overshadowed by the resignation of PAP MP Tan Chuan-Jin and  Cheng Li Hui on similar grounds

[Estrella]

I was about to ask why PAP never had any significant opposition from the right, but I guess the left-liberals’ anti-immigration focus explains it.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I was about to ask why PAP never had any significant opposition from the right, but I guess the left-liberals’ anti-immigration focus explains it.

There have been various populist outfits that could be described as on the right,(Lim Tean, Reform Party) but those have always been more vanity projects than real parties. Evangelical Christianity is growing in strength in Singapore and during the last presidential election prospective candidate George Goh but he was declared ineligible.

The same incoherence applies to right of the PAP opposition. One of the key parts of the PAPs longevity is it's ability to co-opt oppositional tendicies through consultations as well as candidates to make it seem like all sides have an in with them.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

My first post was a bit of an incoherent rant so I'll give just give a more general overview of the countries political system.

Singapore is a parliamentary democracy in the Westminster style, parliamentary elections are held a maximum of five years. The latest date an election can be called is November 2025 but most observers expect one to be held early, perhaps towards the end of the year to solidify the mandate of the established leader.

Singapore's electoral system uses FPTP with the country being divided up into a mixture of "Group Representative Constituencies" GRC's  and "Single Member Constituencies" SMC's, SMC being standard single-member wards while GRC's are multi-member wards that are allocated entirely to the winner, which magnifies the tendency for FPTP to reward bare majority's further. In the past this has also had the effect of leaving most seats in the country uncontested due to the high deposit(15k which is returned if a candidates gets more than 12.5% of the vote) but growing opposition as well as the internet easing fundraising has removed that effect.

The Parties
People Action Party(PAP) A formal socialist party still organised based on Leninist lines is very much the party of Singapore. Lee Kuan Yew's legacy looms large here and there has never been an election since independence where the parties majority was in danger, though the sort of total domination of the 80-00s has faded. A leadership transition always poses risks to such parties given how infrequent they are.

Though the party likes to frame itself as unideolgoical and solely interested in pargmatism, the truth is more muddled. Singapore's own policy-mix is far more complicated than foreign observers like to portray(particularly when using the states policiy to argue for their own internal policies) but in short the party stands for Singapore nationalism, paternalistic approaches to race relations as well  as hostility towards all forms of social disorder. The parties internal politics is incredibly opaque but it's clear that distinct factions within it exist, even if the actual membership are unclear.

Worker Party: The most successful electoral of the opposition parties, which for a long-time had a stronghold in the Hougang SMC due to the successful ability of their leader Low Thia Khiang use of Teochew to connect to residents who had felt left-behind by the PAP's insistence on Mandarin. They themselves have had a leadership transition with the LTK giving way to the urbane lawyer(and army major) Pritam Singh who has expanded the party taking the Sengkang GRC and Aljunied GRC over the last decade.

The main paradox of the party is that it very much markets itself as agreeing with the PAP's outlook, promising to serve the role of a loyal opposition to prevent overreach and identify points of failure sharing the similarly amorphous politics of the PAP. Thought it's activist base may lean left as do some of their MP's their primary message still remains complementary to the PAP. And the party has struggled with the duties of local government(public housing services are run by the elected MP's of the area, important in a county where 80% of people live in public housing). They have also been cautious with regards to the places they contest being careful to only expand after long-periods of grassroots activism, which places a fundamental limit to their growth. I suspect that they may gain another 6 or so seats but any growth beyond that will be near impossible given their lack of diasctintion with the PAP(barring a black swan event)

Progress Singapore Party
The PAP is a notoriously opaque organization and has been quite successful at keeping internal squabbled under the wrap. An exception has been Tan Cheng Bock, a former PAP MP who has been on the outs with the party since 2011 where he almost won the presidential election( against 3 other candidates also named Tan). Other luminaries of the party include Lee Hsien Yang LHL's younger brother and LKY's youngest son. Though the party came close to winning West Coast GRC and was awarded two NCMP* seats. Their star has rather faded ever since, with both NCMPS proving to be lousy parliamentary performers and many of its high profile figures having left active politics

Social Democratic Party
The closest thing Singapore has to a traditional political party but even this has faced accusation of being a cult of personality. It's leader Chee Soon Juan has long since become a perennial candidate having continuously failed to gain elected office and his dominance of the party after having kicked out it's previous leader Chiam See Tong and saw it's parliamentary representation fall to zero. Being extra-parlimentry hasn't stopped the SDP for being one of the only opposition parties to actually oppose PAP governance substantially from a social democratic perspective(surprising given the name). They have repteeadly emphasised a need to loosen social controls as well as expand economic redistribution. The Party has promised to campaign on opposition to immigration and foreign workers this time around, but it remains to be seen if they'll be able to break their 28 year exile from Parliament this time around.





*The NCMP scheme was a plan cooked-up by the PAP to discourage the practice of voting opposition simply out of a sense that the PAP victory was inevitable by claiming that even in the event of an opposition loss, there would still be an existing parlimentary opposition.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the PAP was kicked out of the Socialist International in the 1970s, for whatever that is worth.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think the PAP was kicked out of the Socialist International in the 1970s, for whatever that is worth.

Meant I writer formerly, but there's an argument to be made that the PAP is a socialist party  of the cold war post-colonial tradition with the emphasis of using government intervention in the economy as well social engineering to mordenize society. The rejection of a welfare state and disinterest in redistribution doesn't detract from that.

[warandwar]

I think the PAP was kicked out of the Socialist International in the 1970s, for whatever that is worth.

Meant I writer formerly, but there's an argument to be made that the PAP is a socialist party  of the cold war post-colonial tradition with the emphasis of using government intervention in the economy as well social engineering to mordenize society. The rejection of a welfare state and disinterest in redistribution doesn't detract from that.

was there a party anywhere in the world that didn't use government intervention in the economy or modernizing social engineering? That describes the mission of most governments postwar.

PAP in the 80s specifically framed themselves against the post colonial socialists, as a new, better way to progress society. Very different from how they were in the 60s.

[Joseph Cao]

I think you missed a second footnote in your original post.

Chee Soon Juan has long since become a perennial candidate having continuously failed to gain elected office

And also runs a pretty sweet café, for what it's worth.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think you missed a second footnote in your original post.

Chee Soon Juan has long since become a perennial candidate having continuously failed to gain elected office

And also runs a pretty sweet café, for what it's worth.

It's decent, very poor location so I've only been there once.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/politics/not-unimaginable-for-opposition-to-win-enough-seats-to-form-coalition-government-dpm-wong

Lawerence Wong was officially inaugurated yesterday as our forth prime minister and he's been making the usual media rounds, as well as noises that hint towards an upcoming election.  The claim he makes here regarding the possibility of an opposition alliance taking control of Singapore is of-course very silly. There's no real chance of the PAP loosing their majority, issues and discontent have reached closed to 2011 levels, but there is a nugget of truth to this.

Singapore is not a partisan society and the current version of the PAP isn't a mass organization. Though there are "Pap grassroots", they are social-auxiliary rather than something with mass identification; this extended the opposition which is pretty factored. Though the current parliament only has WP MPs , a small shift towards the opposition could have led to both the PSP and SDP winning seats which would have created some pretty interesting dynamics.

I think an underrated weakness of the PAP is that if there emerges an opposition able to present a credible alternative vision of Singapore, and a sufficient wedge issue is found it's highly likely that the PAP could suffer a landslide defeat. Support for the PAP is a mile wide and inch deep; and getting shallower as the generation transition means the voter base increasingly lacks any memory of a non-PAP Singapore.