If Trump wins, ground games don't matter.

[SnowLabrador]

Okay, I know the title is a bit clickbait-y, but hear me out.

By all accounts, Joe Biden is doing most things right in the campaign. He's organizing volunteers in key swing states months in advance, whereas the GOP has next to no field offices in these states. He's raising a lot more money from small-dollar donations. His opponent, Donald Trump, has very little ground game at present and cancels half his rallies to either spend the day in court or play golf. Conventional wisdom should be that this doesn't help Trump.

However, none of this seems to matter. Trump leads in almost all swing-state polling, sometimes by double digits, which, if these polls come true, will mean an even more lopsided election than 2008. What's particularly striking would not be the margin, but the fact that the winner is the candidate who is objectively doing most things wrong, against a candidate who's doing most things right. Yes, there's Israel/Gaza, but foreign policy is rarely a top concern among voters - even current polling for this election says this.

Therefore, my thesis is the following: If Trump wins, field organization does not matter at all. So what does?

[Octowakandi]

I think the conclusion would be ground games don’t matter if you’re a deeply unpopular incumbent and the national situation isn’t getting any better. If Jimmy Carter had a better ground game than Ronald Reagan and still lost, it would be absurd to say the conclusion is ground games don’t better. The conclusion would be it is hard to win with a toxic incumbent.

[TechbroMBA]

Let’s be honest people are now asocial dorks. I don’t even meet my DoorDash driver at the door - you think I want to have some door knocker sign me up for a lawn sign?

You got to engage people where they live - social media.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Let’s be honest people are now asocial dorks. I don’t even meet my DoorDash driver at the door - you think I want to have some door knocker sign me up for a lawn sign?

You got to engage people where they live - social media.

Why lol . All the do is just give you the food and leave after like 10 seconds . Also if you order door dash to your office(which is what I primarily use it for)  then why wouldn’t you prefer your food to be given directly to you rather than put in a common area where a mix up could happen.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would say it matters for down ballot but not presidential since the name recognition factor is so high in presidential races along with an insane amount of free media given to the presidential race .

[Arizona Iced Tea]

This already happened in 2016. Trump never had the same operations Hillary did. He just went out there on the rally stage and persuaded millions of white working class voters through his speeches. The ground game operations you see today were invented by Obama in 2012 when he realized minorities didn't have the same enthusiasm as 2008.

[heatcharger]

“Ground game” as popularized by Team Obama was less about being on the ground and more about microtargeting voters through digital ads.

It doesn’t matter how many field offices Team Biden has. A candidate with 55-60% disapproval should be more focused on turning that around than trying to hit door-knocking metrics.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Ironically, the reverse was true in 2020 for Trump to come as close as he did. Democrats sort of unilaterally disarmed with ground game.

He infuriatingly defies common sense and logic, but seriously, he is not this electoral juggernaut.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ironically, the reverse was true in 2020 for Trump to come as close as he did.

He infuriatingly defies common sense and logic, but seriously, he is not this electoral juggernaut.

It was a 303 map in 20 like it always is

[iceman]

Okay, I know the title is a bit clickbait-y, but hear me out.

By all accounts, Joe Biden is doing most things right in the campaign. He's organizing volunteers in key swing states months in advance, whereas the GOP has next to no field offices in these states. He's raising a lot more money from small-dollar donations. His opponent, Donald Trump, has very little ground game at present and cancels half his rallies to either spend the day in court or play golf. Conventional wisdom should be that this doesn't help Trump.

However, none of this seems to matter. Trump leads in almost all swing-state polling, sometimes by double digits, which, if these polls come true, will mean an even more lopsided election than 2008. What's particularly striking would not be the margin, but the fact that the winner is the candidate who is objectively doing most things wrong, against a candidate who's doing most things right. Yes, there's Israel/Gaza, but foreign policy is rarely a top concern among voters - even current polling for this election says this.

Therefore, my thesis is the following: If Trump wins, field organization does not matter at all. So what does?

I think so too. It’s possibly because this is a rematch and people know both candidates already and voters already have a solid opinion on both whethere they campaign further or not. I honestly believe 90% of the electorate has already made up their minds about both candidates since last year.

[DrScholl]

Ironically, the reverse was true in 2020 for Trump to come as close as he did. Democrats sort of unilaterally disarmed with ground game.

He infuriatingly defies common sense and logic, but seriously, he is not this electoral juggernaut.

This is the explanation for Republicans overperforming but it I'd constantly overlooked.

[Duke of York]

Ironically, the reverse was true in 2020 for Trump to come as close as he did. Democrats sort of unilaterally disarmed with ground game.

He infuriatingly defies common sense and logic, but seriously, he is not this electoral juggernaut.

If Democrats hadn't refused to any in person campaigning they might have won more house seats and possibly held the house in 2022.

[TechbroMBA]

Ground game is like multivitamins.

Are they helpful? Maybe at the margins, certainly it doesn't hurt.

Will they save you from anything serious? No, you were already screwed.

The concept that some canvassing and walk around money is the reason Obama beat Romney is a fiction that campaign staff propagate to ensure they have jobs.

[Mr. Smith]

If they did, Bernie would be President right now, him or Ted Cruz. One of them.

[South Dakota Democrat]

This already happened in 2016. Trump never had the same operations Hillary did. He just went out there on the rally stage and persuaded millions of white working class voters through his speeches. The ground game operations you see today were invented by Obama in 2012 when he realized minorities didn't have the same enthusiasm as 2008.

More so Bush 2004 to get evangelicals to the polls.

[Pres Mike]

Let’s be honest people are now asocial dorks. I don’t even meet my DoorDash driver at the door - you think I want to have some door knocker sign me up for a lawn sign?

You got to engage people where they live - social media.

Didn't Democrats underperform in 2020 because they didn't do door-door canvassing? They did door to door for the 2021 Georgia senate races and won. Just saying

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

“Ground game” as popularized by Team Obama was less about being on the ground and more about microtargeting voters through digital ads.

This is totally incorrect.

Actually though, the fact that you think that is one indication of the effectiveness of the Obama camp microtargeting. The fact that you never heard from them means they (correctly) knew that you were not someone worth wasting time and effort contacting.

[Duke of York]

Let’s be honest people are now asocial dorks. I don’t even meet my DoorDash driver at the door - you think I want to have some door knocker sign me up for a lawn sign?

You got to engage people where they live - social media.

Didn't Democrats underperform in 2020 because they didn't do door-door canvassing? They did door to door for the 2021 Georgia senate races and won. Just saying

if they had done that its possible they might have won more seats and even held the house in 2022.

[heatcharger]

“Ground game” as popularized by Team Obama was less about being on the ground and more about microtargeting voters through digital ads.

This is totally incorrect.

Actually though, the fact that you think that is one indication of the effectiveness of the Obama camp microtargeting. The fact that you never heard from them means they (correctly) knew that you were not someone worth wasting time and effort contacting.

I supported Barack Hussein Obama over Romney bud. I know more about Obama 2012 than you.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

it doesn't matter much in presidential elections, which is why Biden won with 0 ground game in 2020. But it 100% matters in midterm/off-year elections.