NYT/Ipsos: Biden +3

[GAinDC]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1790448670300635253
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2024-05/New%20York%20Times-Ipsos%20Third%20Party%20Experiment%20Topline.pdf

[President Johnson]

So NYT wants to tell us Biden is up nationally by three while he's trailing in all battleground, even by robust margins in the Sunbelt Stack? Polling is a joke.

[Progressive Pessimist]

One page, just you wait.

[TechbroMBA]

So NYT wants to tell us Biden is up nationally by three while he's trailing in all battleground, even by robust margins in the Sunbelt Stack? Polling is a joke.

NYT is the sponsor. Ipsos did this poll, Siena did the state polls.

[President Johnson]

So NYT wants to tell us Biden is up nationally by three while he's trailing in all battleground, even by robust margins in the Sunbelt Stack? Polling is a joke.

NYT is the sponsor. Ipsos did this poll, Siena did the state polls.

The polls alltogether still don't match up in the end.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

So NYT wants to tell us Biden is up nationally by three while he's trailing in all battleground, even by robust margins in the Sunbelt Stack? Polling is a joke.

Tbf this is with Ipsos not Siena, but I do welcome it nonetheless!

[TechbroMBA]

So NYT wants to tell us Biden is up nationally by three while he's trailing in all battleground, even by robust margins in the Sunbelt Stack? Polling is a joke.

NYT is the sponsor. Ipsos did this poll, Siena did the state polls.

The polls alltogether still don't match up in the end.

Who cares? We all know individual polls six months ahead don't matter.

Collectively they paint a confidence interval of where the race is right now. I don't know why people want to jump into each individual poll and start debating them rather than just look at how averages are trending over time.

Nobody is going to have perfect methodology, even if they did we'd have no way to predict which one.

[DrScholl]

There cannot be this huge of variance between polling. At least not realistically. This election is going to look like 2020, period.

[kwabbit]

So NYT wants to tell us Biden is up nationally by three while he's trailing in all battleground, even by robust margins in the Sunbelt Stack? Polling is a joke.

NYT is the sponsor. Ipsos did this poll, Siena did the state polls.

The polls alltogether still don't match up in the end.

Ipsos is online, Siena is by cell phone primarily. The Siena poll uses a voter file too, Ipsos does not.

They aren’t supposed to be aligned because this poll is designed as an experiment to see how question wording/order matters in gauging third-party support, not to get the state of the race. Conducting a telephone poll is quite expensive so they opted for online for this one.

I don’t think any of the top lines were designed to be reported in this, when the experiment shows that it varies depending on the question order. If you smush them together you get Biden+3, but the Kennedy is number is either 1, 2, 7, or 13.

[KakyoinMemeHouse]

Looks like more clear movement towards Biden in polling, i see the economy bump is still going strong.

[Rand]

I was moments away from self-immolating, then this poll was released.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So NYT wants to tell us Biden is up nationally by three while he's trailing in all battleground, even by robust margins in the Sunbelt Stack? Polling is a joke.

NYT is the sponsor. Ipsos did this poll, Siena did the state polls.

The polls alltogether still don't match up in the end.

Who cares? We all know individual polls six months ahead don't matter.

Collectively they paint a confidence interval of where the race is right now. I don't know why people want to jump into each individual poll and start debating them rather than just look at how averages are trending over time.

Nobody is going to have perfect methodology, even if they did we'd have no way to predict which one.

This should be posted in every poll thread.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is IPSOS not Siena so Biden is in good position

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

So NYT wants to tell us Biden is up nationally by three while he's trailing in all battleground, even by robust margins in the Sunbelt Stack? Polling is a joke.

You don't take the state by state polls as legitimate, even Biden said they are jokes

[7,052,770]

When even the NYT has Biden leading, you can bet that Biden is leading.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

%’s got released it’s Biden +4

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1790493131307118669?s=46

[AncestralDemocrat.]

There cannot be this huge of variance between polling. At least not realistically. This election is going to look like 2020, period.

Literally all evidence to the contrary, but OK.. 

Biden’s favorables have collapsed (and his overall approval are at 30 year lows going into a presidential election) since 2020 and Trump is polling substantially better.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There cannot be this huge of variance between polling. At least not realistically. This election is going to look like 2020, period.

Literally all evidence to the contrary, but OK..  

Biden’s favorables have collapsed (and his overall approval are at 30 year lows going into a presidential election) since 2020 and Trump is polling substantially better.

Lol it's a 303 map Biden had 41 Approvals same gas prices same 3 percent Inflation and it was a 303 map in 22

Conserv always say Biden Approvals collapsed and Trump never had 50 Approval the hypocrisy

[Podgy the Bear]

I want to see 171 posts on this thread—like the one I started yesterday on the Siena polls.

[Tekken_Guy]

There cannot be this huge of variance between polling. At least not realistically. This election is going to look like 2020, period.

Literally all evidence to the contrary, but OK.. 

Biden’s favorables have collapsed (and his overall approval are at 30 year lows going into a presidential election) since 2020 and Trump is polling substantially better.

Yet the rust belt is still close.

[wbrocks67]

There cannot be this huge of variance between polling. At least not realistically. This election is going to look like 2020, period.

Literally all evidence to the contrary, but OK.. 

Biden’s favorables have collapsed (and his overall approval are at 30 year lows going into a presidential election) since 2020 and Trump is polling substantially better.

Biden's favorables are worse than Trumps here and yet Biden is leading Trump. That in itself continues to prove that favorables/approval are not everything this election and do not tell the whole story - as most ofus have been saying.

This tracks though with the ABC Ipsos poll as well

[wbrocks67]

The RFK stuff is interesting though - continues to show that most of his support is very soft, unsurprisnigly

[wbrocks67]

It is quite funny though how NYT commissioned this poll but basically ignored it, b/c it didn't comport with the narrative they were trying to push.

[kwabbit]

%’s got released it’s Biden +4

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1790493131307118669?s=46

Two of them are. There are 4 questions to test RFK,

46 B
44 T
2 K

39 B
38 T
13 K

45 B
41 T
7 K

47 B
43 T
1 K

The gist is that asking Biden, Trump, or other first primes the respondent to choose Kennedy more often when he’s named because they are reminded of their dissatisfaction with Trump and Biden. Voters don’t name him off the top of their head. The most similar to the ballot box is the all at once immediately set up which gave him 7.

All together the average lead is Biden +2.8.

[GAinDC]

It is quite funny though how NYT commissioned this poll but basically ignored it, b/c it didn't comport with the narrative they were trying to push.

They would rather lead with completely unrealistic statewide numbers that almost 100% wont pan out than a national number that makes more sense, just for the clicks.