When will the Republicans win the popular vote again with a clear majority?

[iceman]

2004 was the most recent majority win by the GOP and has never been achieved again. Why does the GOP doesn’t seem to resonate with the majority of americans? When do you think they would win the popular vote again?

[Steve from Lambeth]

At some point in Donald Trump's lifetime.

[Frodo]

2028, if Trump loses yet again this year. 

[DS0816]

2004 was the most recent majority win by the GOP and has never been achieved again. Why does the GOP doesn’t seem to resonate with the majority of americans? When do you think they would win the popular vote again?

If Democratic-vs.-Republican combined for 97 to 99 percent … it would happen this year [2024].

I think Trump’s Republican pickup for U.S. President—with 31 carried states, plus Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, and 312 electoral votes—will come with a U.S. Popular Vote percentage-points margin of +3.

In that case, with a combined two-party vote of 97 to 99 percent, Trump would get 50 or 51 while Biden would receive 47 or 48 percent.

I think the Election 2024 two-party vote will end up about 94 or 95 percent and, effective 05.16.2024, I would guess: Trump 49 vs. Biden 46 percent.

[wnwnwn]

Next time GOP wins the election after this year

[Beet]

If Trump fails to win the popular vote this year, then by 2028 a 57 year old man will only have been able to vote in one election his entire life where the GOP won the popular vote. And yet we could also be going full bore towards fascism. Shows how "democratic" we really are as a country (hint: we are not).

Hence I don't take seriously Bidens claims he's "defending democracy". A system where a 57 year old man can see one party win his entire adult life yet the other one be in the drivers seat of the major political directions of the country is what he's defending. What we have is a facade of democracy whose main function is to lend legitimacy to an anti-democratic system.

[wnwnwn]

If Trump fails to win the popular vote this year, then by 2028 a 57 year old man will only have been able to vote in one election his entire life where the GOP won the popular vote. And yet we could also be going full bore towards fascism. Shows how "democratic" we really are as a country (hint: we are not).

Hence I don't take seriously Bidens claims he's "defending democracy". A system where a 57 year old man can see one party win his entire adult life yet the other one be in the drivers seat of the major political directions of the country is what he's defending. What we have is a facade of democracy whose main function is to lend legitimacy to an anti-democratic system.

Well, the GOP has done well in congressional elections in the last decades...

[Del Tachi]

If Trump wins while losing the PV later this year, it could possibly be a long time.  Democrats would most likely suceed Trump with two terms, so my bet would be 2036.

If Biden is reelected then probably either 2028 or 2032.

Trump winning the popular vote this year is likelier than most people think, somewhere between a 20-30% chance I'd say.  But winning a popular vote majority is going to be hard for either candidate this cycle.

[Sir Mohamed]

2028, if Trump loses yet again this year. 

Yup, that's my expectation. Otherwise, perhaps in 2036 after 2 terms of another Dem succeeding Trump in 2029.