AZ and FL - CBS News/Yougov - Trump +5/+9

[Skill and Chance]

FL is gone. Based on the rust belt polls from a few weeks ago this seems to confirm that the easiest path does in fact lie through those 3 states (MI/WI/PA)

That gets Biden only to 269. He would need NE-2 to win.

Can't believe I am saying this but for the first time in the History of the United States of America
269-269 seems legitimately in play this November.

You heard it here first: The EC is going to be a 269-269 split and Republicans are going to lose the House this November, but they are going to elect Trump president as their final act in power. It would just be too fitting.

The new house is seated before the electoral college convenes. However, they are still likely to control more state delegations (although the math is harder with Alaska in Democratic hands.)

Republicans currently control exactly 26 delegations (green = tied, which would mean no vote cast in a contingent election for president without bipartisan support for one candidate).



However, since it's the next congress that votes, we have to account for the likely changes.  Democrats have quite a good chance at flipping the delegation in AZ, but Republicans are sure to break the tie and pick up NC on the new maps in any situation where the national PV is remotely close.  Democrats control the PA delegation by one vote, and they have a representative in a 2X Trump seat who will have a tough race in this environment.  Democrats also control the MI delegation by 1 vote, but all their seats are pretty safe.  The best Dem pickup opportunities after AZ are probably flipping the western MT seat to tie or trying to flip the other eastern seat and create a tie in Kansas, both extreme longshots if the presidential election is close enough to be 269/269.  

In short, the NC remap ended any realistic chance for Dems to block a Trump reelection in a 12 Amendment vote.

[2016]

We’re in a weird place right now where the national polls are looking better for Biden but the swing state polls are still looking pretty bad for him. However this looks to be the same polling outfit that showed close races in the rust belt trio.

I’m not skilled enough to offer a thorough explanation for this, but I still feel better about Biden’s chances compared to a few months ago.

I don't think the national polls are looking that great for Biden?  It generally averages to Trump by less than +1.  Biden does have a few +1 or +2 leads out there, but that's not really consistent with the median state in the EC being all that competitive.  If 2020 was Biden +2, he probably gains nothing over Clinton 2016 in the EC except maybe Michigan.  If you assume Trump is getting an additional 1-2% out of NYC and Florida, maybe that nets Biden Pennsylvania and Michigan while Trump wins all his other 2016 states (and with the clear Hispanic R trend, NV).  That's basically what current state polling looks like.  Biden might be up in PA and/or MI but he's in huge trouble everywhere else, and state level polling in WI understates Trump like nobody's business.

Biden led the National Polling Average during the entire 2020 Cycle between 4-6 Percentage Points. He is nowhere near there this year.

[henster]

I can totally see Team Biden deciding to triage GA & AZ late in the cycle and go all in on the rust belt trio + NE-02. I think the high growth rate nature of the sunbelt states has made them hotspots for inflation + they are the bearing the brunt of migrant crisis, makes them much more difficult for Biden to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whoever said Arizona is least likely to flip has lost there mind

Ha you said that in 22 and there was no Gov Lake, repeat rerun

[quesaisje]

Who knows whether the actual result will bear out what the state polls are telling us, but Biden's comparative resilience in Rust Belt polling is the most interesting trend in US politics.

I don't know whether this has more to do with who feels that Biden is delivering for them (and who doesn't), Trump's appeal having shifted toward Sun Belt demographics since 2016, or changes to the states themselves.

That Trump will be running as a Florida Man, rather than as a New Yorker, is the cherry on top of it all. Instead of Queens vs. Manhattan, it's Palm Beach vs. Rehoboth Beach.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who knows whether the actual result will bear out what the state polls are telling us, but Biden's comparative resilience in Rust Belt polling is the most interesting trend in US politics.

I don't know whether this has more to do with who feels that Biden is delivering for them (and who doesn't), Trump's appeal having shifted toward Sun Belt demographics since 2016, or changes to the states themselves.

That Trump will be running as a Florida Man, rather than as a New Yorker, is the cherry on top of it all. Instead of Queens vs. Manhattan, it's Palm Beach vs. Rehoboth Beach.

It has very little to do with what state Trump is from it has to do with inflation, there is a reason why Trump is ahead of Biden rents are too high and unemployment is up. People got lazy again and stop working. I have a roommate that's given up on finding a job

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL is gone. Based on the rust belt polls from a few weeks ago this seems to confirm that the easiest path does in fact lie through those 3 states (MI/WI/PA)

That gets Biden only to 269. He would need NE-2 to win.

Can't believe I am saying this but for the first time in the History of the United States of America
269-269 seems legitimately in play this November.

You heard it here first: The EC is going to be a 269-269 split and Republicans are going to lose the House this November, but they are going to elect Trump president as their final act in power. It would just be too fitting.

The new house is seated before the electoral college convenes. However, they are still likely to control more state delegations (although the math is harder with Alaska in Democratic hands.)

Republicans currently control exactly 26 delegations (green = tied, which would mean no vote cast in a contingent election for president without bipartisan support for one candidate).



However, since it's the next congress that votes, we have to account for the likely changes.  Democrats have quite a good chance at flipping the delegation in AZ, but Republicans are sure to break the tie and pick up NC on the new maps in any situation where the national PV is remotely close.  Democrats control the PA delegation by one vote, and they have a representative in a 2X Trump seat who will have a tough race in this environment.  Democrats also control the MI delegation by 1 vote, but all their seats are pretty safe.  The best Dem pickup opportunities after AZ are probably flipping the western MT seat to tie or trying to flip the other eastern seat and create a tie in Kansas, both extreme longshots if the presidential election is close enough to be 269/269.  

In short, the NC remap ended any realistic chance for Dems to block a Trump reelection in a 12 Amendment vote.

MN ISN'T A TOSSUP

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I can totally see Team Biden deciding to triage GA & AZ late in the cycle and go all in on the rust belt trio + NE-02. I think the high growth rate nature of the sunbelt states has made them hotspots for inflation + they are the bearing the brunt of migrant crisis, makes them much more difficult for Biden to win.

It would be absolutely idiotic for Biden to triage Arizona. Unless we are talking about a 2008 Indiana fluke, you never triage a state you won the previous cycle regardless of how narrow it is. Trump made this mistake with Michigan in 2020 as well. Relying on the rust belt gives him zero margin of error and its not even that good for him up there anyway. In fact, I think Trump has better odds in Wisconsin than Arizona.

[2016]

Interesting Nugget out of the Florida CBS Poll:

Trump leads Biden among Florida Hispanics 52-47. In 2020 Trump lost Florida Hispanics to Biden 47-52.

This really suggests to me that Trump has a better than even shot carrying Miami-Dade County because if he carries FL Latinos Statewide he surely is going to carry them in Miami-Dade.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Not sure why Biden decided to run again. Literally underperforming downballot by double digits at this moment in several states.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

We’re in a weird place right now where the national polls are looking better for Biden but the swing state polls are still looking pretty bad for him. However this looks to be the same polling outfit that showed close races in the rust belt trio.

I’m not skilled enough to offer a thorough explanation for this, but I still feel better about Biden’s chances compared to a few months ago.

I don't think the national polls are looking that great for Biden?  It generally averages to Trump by less than +1.  Biden does have a few +1 or +2 leads out there, but that's not really consistent with the median state in the EC being all that competitive.  If 2020 was Biden +2, he probably gains nothing over Clinton 2016 in the EC except maybe Michigan.  If you assume Trump is getting an additional 1-2% out of NYC and Florida, maybe that nets Biden Pennsylvania and Michigan while Trump wins all his other 2016 states (and with the clear Hispanic R trend, NV).  That's basically what current state polling looks like.  Biden might be up in PA and/or MI but he's in huge trouble everywhere else, and state level polling in WI understates Trump like nobody's business.

I am wondering if we are actually seeing an urban-rural depolarization trend due to the housing situation rather than a Hispanic trend (though I see white rural voters not shifting either direction, while Trump does gain with rural Hispanics too). At least this is what NYT/Siena seems to suggest, with PA being Trump's best rust belt state now and NV being double digits Trump. Trump also seems to lead in NE02.

[iceman]

Interesting Nugget out of the Florida CBS Poll:

Trump leads Biden among Florida Hispanics 52-47. In 2020 Trump lost Florida Hispanics to Biden 47-52.

This really suggests to me that Trump has a better than even shot carrying Miami-Dade County because if he carries FL Latinos Statewide he surely is going to carry them in Miami-Dade.

If there’s going to be a ground zero for Hispanic shifts to GOP, the place it would happen would be in Miami-Dade county. I was recently in the Miami area and the vibe there is not DEM conducive.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

Interesting Nugget out of the Florida CBS Poll:

Trump leads Biden among Florida Hispanics 52-47. In 2020 Trump lost Florida Hispanics to Biden 47-52.

This really suggests to me that Trump has a better than even shot carrying Miami-Dade County because if he carries FL Latinos Statewide he surely is going to carry them in Miami-Dade.

If there’s going to be a ground zero for Hispanic shifts to GOP, the place it would happen would be in Miami-Dade county. I was recently in the Miami area and the vibe there is not DEM conducive.

I think Clark County would also be ground zero.

[redjohn]

Eh, it's still far out and while not a great sign, Rs led in multiple polls leading into the final week of the elections in 2020 + 2022. R+5 this far out in my mind is still a tossup.

What's more worrisome is that there still isn't any clear strategy being enacted by the Biden campaign to turn this ship around.

[2016]

Interesting Nugget out of the Florida CBS Poll:

Trump leads Biden among Florida Hispanics 52-47. In 2020 Trump lost Florida Hispanics to Biden 47-52.

This really suggests to me that Trump has a better than even shot carrying Miami-Dade County because if he carries FL Latinos Statewide he surely is going to carry them in Miami-Dade.

If there’s going to be a ground zero for Hispanic shifts to GOP, the place it would happen would be in Miami-Dade county. I was recently in the Miami area and the vibe there is not DEM conducive.

Well, it's a 10-Point Hispanic Shift Statewide in favor of Trump compared to 2020 FL Exits when he lost the Hispanic Vote by 5 to Biden assuming this Poll is accurate. That's bound to have some impact in a County that has a 70% Hispanic Population.

[Comrade Funk]

Not sure why Biden decided to run again. Literally underperforming downballot by double digits at this moment in several states.

Ego and denial

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just our luck. We get some fairly reassuring polls where Biden is competitive tobleading Trump in pollsters he is usually found positively with, and then we get state polls like these...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Just our luck. We get some fairly reassuring polls where Biden is competitive tobleading Trump in pollsters he is usually found positively with, and then we get state polls like these...

It's inflation but by pretending that everyone is gonna get a stimulus check and they aren't doesn't help. They keep saying everyone on SSA is gonna get a stimulus check every first of the month they pay us the same

The only way you get extra money for SSA if you work part time there won't be a stimulus check this yr because it's Spk Johnson not Pelosi

[THKL]

These polls line up perfectly with my projection that Arizona will be Trump+5 and Florida will be Trump+10, 😂🤣!

[EastwoodS]

At this point I just can’t see Arizona as lean D or Tossup. It should be Lean R at minimum. Biden hasn’t led in a single poll in Arizona since July 2023!

There was a Data Orbital poll last week that had him +1

cope

[LAKISYLVANIA]

We’re in a weird place right now where the national polls are looking better for Biden but the swing state polls are still looking pretty bad for him. However this looks to be the same polling outfit that showed close races in the rust belt trio.

I’m not skilled enough to offer a thorough explanation for this, but I still feel better about Biden’s chances compared to a few months ago.

It's not that hard to explain.

Democrats in 2016 and 2020 had a PV advantage. Clinton won the PV with 3% while losing the EV. So it would make sense that a narrow EV win for Trump would likely have a Biden PV win.

Especially since a lot of states keep trending D like TX long run and aren't going to return to Bush margins.

I don't know why people suddenly buy that the PV / EV discrepancy would suddenly disappear unless you really believe states like California will suddenly shift 15% to the right or something.

Secondly... it's not like Biden suddenly is ahead of Trump. Trump has a 0.9% lead on RCP vs Biden. If Trump really wins the PV by that margin, i don't even think the race would even be that close... as some think it'll be now. Basically puts MN and VA really into play, not that it really would matter though in the grand scale of things since all Trump needs is 270 electoral votes, not a PV win or MN or VA voting for him.

[Cyrusman]

Eh, it's still far out and while not a great sign, Rs led in multiple polls leading into the final week of the elections in 2020 + 2022. R+5 this far out in my mind is still a tossup.

What's more worrisome is that there still isn't any clear strategy being enacted by the Biden campaign to turn this ship around.

Trump and Mcsally definitely did not lead in most 2020 polls. Almost all polls from march/april going forward had Biden ahead.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Not sure why Biden decided to run again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump isn't that strong of a candidate he is a Steve Bannon type of candidate he lost before and lose again and AZ and NV are pure Tossup