Is Texas' Future Blue?

[King Man]

Or will it trend red, or become a sort of mega NC?

[有爭議嘅領土 of The Figgis Agency]

TX will vote for a D nominee again sometime this century, provided Don Giovanni doesn't manage to fully implement Project 2025 if he wins in November.

Also TX can swing D and trend R in a hypothetical future election if it swings D by less than the country as a whole.

[wnwnwn]

It´s PURPLE
As Ohio, Iowa and Florida go GOP they have to be replaced.

[mjba257]

Here's what the future looks like (my crystal ball), circa 2040s

Pure tossups: AZ, DE, NJ, NM, NC, PA, RI, TX
Lean/Likely R: AK, KS, MI, NV, SC, TN, UT, WI
Lean/Likely D: GA, HI, IL, MN, NY

[Skill and Chance]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

[Agonized-Statism]

It was always going to be a swing state at most- no way Republicans would let it slip away completely- but Democrats aren't doing the work I've pointed out that they need to do to make it happen there over the last few years.

[Samof94]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

[Skill and Chance]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

Texas doesn't really have them anymore.   Cuellar is basically the last one standing and now he's under a probably career ending indictment.  Texas conservadems were in terminal decline by the early 2000's and virtually wiped out in the early 2010's. 

IDK maybe there's a pro-life Tejano Dem representing the RGV in the state senate who could still fill this role, but I seriously doubt it.  Rural white ancestral Dem areas aren't relevant enough for a Manchin or even Fetterman type to take off. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No it's not it's gonna continue to trend red if ALLRED a football star can't win it it's a lost cause

[Tekken_Guy]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

Texas doesn't really have them anymore.   Cuellar is basically the last one standing and now he's under a probably career ending indictment.  Texas conservadems were in terminal decline by the early 2000's and virtually wiped out in the early 2010's. 

IDK maybe there's a pro-life Tejano Dem representing the RGV in the state senate who could still fill this role, but I seriously doubt it.  Rural white ancestral Dem areas aren't relevant enough for a Manchin or even Fetterman type to take off. 

Cuellar will be fine, honestly.

[2016]

I think people got way too excited about this based on 2016.  It's still somewhat less college educated and way more religious (including plenty of the college educated people) than the national average.  There's also a lot of evidence Texas Hispanics are culturally assimilating toward white Evangelicals.  That having been said, I don't think it will ever go back to being R+25, but there's no reason it wouldn't stay R+10ish for many years.  Maybe Dems eventually win it in a 2008 scenario as a one-time thing.   

What if a Conservadem wins as a Senator?

Texas doesn't really have them anymore.   Cuellar is basically the last one standing and now he's under a probably career ending indictment.  Texas conservadems were in terminal decline by the early 2000's and virtually wiped out in the early 2010's. 

IDK maybe there's a pro-life Tejano Dem representing the RGV in the state senate who could still fill this role, but I seriously doubt it.  Rural white ancestral Dem areas aren't relevant enough for a Manchin or even Fetterman type to take off. 

Cuellar will be fine, honestly.

For this November probably yes but no way Cuellar survives until the 2026 Midterms and if Biden wins narrowly (I am still one of those people who thinks he will) then Cuellar is TOAST in 2026 either in a D-Primary or GE.