HELENA - U.S. Sen. Max Baucus, Rep. Denny Rehberg and Gov. Brian Schweitzer enjoy high job-approval ratings and are strong favorites to be re-elected if the ballots were cast now, a Lee Newspapers poll shows.
“The numbers are good for the governor, senator and representative,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll. “I don't see any endangered incumbents right now in these offices.”
The telephone poll, taken June 25-27, surveyed 625 Montanans who are registered to vote and said they regularly vote in elections. The margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.
Baucus, a Democrat, leads the pack with a positive job-approval score of 67 percent, followed by Schweitzer, also a Democrat, at 64 percent and Rehberg, a Republican, at 61 percent.
Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat who unseated three-time Republican incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns in November, had the lowest job-approval of Montana's top elected officials with 46 percent.
The poll also asked if the 2008 election were held today, whether Montana voters would vote to re-elect Baucus, Rehberg and Schweitzer or whether they would vote to replace them with someone from the opposite party.
All three men are up for re-election next year.
Sixty-two percent of voters favored re-electing Rehberg to a fifth two-year term in Congress, while 30 percent would vote to replace him with a Democrat, with 8 percent undecided. Yellowstone County Commissioner Bill Kennedy, a Democrat, is Rehberg's only announced opponent so far.
The poll showed 60 percent favored re-electing Baucus to a sixth six-year term in the Senate, while 31 percent favored replacing him with a Republican. Nine percent were undecided. Baucus' lone opponent so far is former state House Majority Leader Michael Lange, R-Billings.
Fifty-seven percent supported re-electing Schweitzer, while 32 percent said they would prefer replacing him with a Republican. Eleven percent were undecided. So far, no Republicans have jumped into the race to challenge Schweitzer.
Coker said Tester's relatively low job-approval score isn't a big surprise at this point, given the high number of voters, 22 percent, calling themselves undecided.
“If I do a poll less than a year after someone's elected, you'll get an undecided in the 20-percent range,” Coker said. “There's still plenty of room for growth when a fifth of the electorate are undecided. It's a reflection that he's only been in office for six months.”
Here's a closer look at the Montana's top elected officials' polling results:
n Baucus: His 67-percent job approval score is slightly lower than his 68-percent mark in December, which was Baucus' highest in a Lee poll since September 1990. His negative score is 31 percent, with 2 percent undecided.
By gender, 72 percent of women and 62 percent of men gave Baucus a positive job-performance mark, with 35 percent of men and 27 percent of women handing Baucus a negative mark. By party, 86 percent of Democrats, 61 percent of Independents and 57 percent of Republicans rated Baucus' job performance positively.
Baucus would win re-election over an unnamed Republican, 60 percent to 31 percent, if the election were held today. By gender, 62 percent of women and 58 percent of men would support him, while 35 percent of men and 27 percent of women would vote for a Republican.
By party, 97 percent of Democrats, 56 percent of Independents and 34 percent of Republicans said they would vote again for Baucus. It found that 57 percent of Republicans, 28 percent of Independents and 2 percent of Democrats would vote to oust Baucus for a Republican.
On Friday, former state House Majority Leader Michael Lange of Billings became the first Republican to enter the race against Baucus.
n Schweitzer: The governor's job performance dipped slightly to 64 percent from 65 percent in December. Schweitzer's negative score is 34 percent. Schweitzer's peak was 69 percent in May 2006.
The poll found that 68 percent of women and 60 percent of men gave Schweitzer positive marks, while 37 percent of men and 31 percent of women rated him negatively.
By party, 93 percent of Democrats, 62 percent of independents and 43 percent of Republicans ranked Schweitzer positively. Fifty-four percent of Republicans, 35 percent of Independents and 6 percent of Democrats gave the governor negative job ratings.
Schweitzer would top an unnamed Republican, 57 percent to 32 percent, if the election were held today. By gender, 63 percent of women and 51 percent of men would back Schweitzer, while 35 percent of men and 29 percent of women would vote to elect a Republican instead.
Broken down by political party, 98 percent of Democrats said they would support Schweitzer's re-election, along with 60 percent of Independents and 20 percent of Republicans. Backing a generic Republican over Schweitzer would be 66 percent of Republicans, 23 percent of Independents and 1 percent of Democrats.
n Rehberg: The congressman's job-approval ratings dropped to 61 percent from his record 68 percent in December.
Results showed 64 percent of men and 58 percent of women ranked Rehberg's job performance positively, while 36 percent of women and 30 percent of men rated it negatively. By party, 80 percent of Republicans, 55 percent of Independents and 42 percent of Democrats rated how Rehberg is doing the job positively, while 50 percent of Democrats, 39 percent of Independents and 16 percent of Republicans rated his job-approval negatively.
If the election were held today, Rehberg would top an unnamed Democrat, 62 percent to 30 percent. By gender, 63 percent of men and 61 percent of women would back Rehberg, while 31 percent of women and 29 percent of men would back the unnamed Democrat.
Broken down by political party, 93 percent of Republicans, 55 percent of Independents and 33 percent of Democrats would back Rehberg if the election were held today. The poll found 53 percent of Democrats, 36 percent of Independents and 4 percent of Republicans would prefer the generic Democrat.
n Tester: The Democratic senator's first job-approval rating in a Lee poll is at 46 percent, with 32 percent negative and 22 percent undecided.
By gender, 51 percent of women and 41 percent of men rated Tester's job performance positively, while 33 percent of men and 31 percent of women scored it negatively.
By political party, 79 percent of Democrats, 38 percent of Independents and 25 percent of Republicans gave Tester positive job marks, while 52 percent of Republicans, 34 percent of Independents and 7 percent of Democrats gave him negative job approval marks.
When the poll totals don't add to 100 percent, the remaining percentages are those interviewed who were undecided.
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