OH-16

[Know Your Rights!]

This is my district. Our current congressman, Ralph Regula, is heavily rumored to be retiring. http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2007/06/house-retirement-watch-if-you-wait-they.html

A few of the current candidates are listed on politics1:
Matt Miller (R) - Ashland County Commissioner & '06 Candidate
Richard Regula (R) - Ex-Stark County Commissioner & Son of Congressman Regula
J. Kirk Schuring (R) - State Sen.
John Boccieri (D) - State Sen., Ex-State Rep., USAF Reserve Officer & Ex-Minor League Baseball Player
Bill Smuckler (D) - Canton City Councilman
Michael Todd (D) - Medina Township Trustee

I do, however, know of another who will be running should Congressman Regula retire: Senator Ron Amstutz, the man in my signature. Actually, he's the longest serving member of the legislature (since 1981 IIRC). It should be a competitive race - both in the primary and the general. Any thoughts?

[Padfoot]

I think this race could make up for Democratic disappointments in Ohio after 2006.  They have to play this race perfectly though.  There can't be any screw-ups and they must have a good candidate.  I don't think that will be hard to do considering the current mood in Ohio.  IMO there are 7 seats the Democrats could realistically win given the right circumstances.  In order of competitiveness they are:

OH-15
OH-1
OH-16
OH-2
OH-3
OH-12
OH-14

In a perfect storm with all the planets aligned the Democrats could realistically win all of these seats.  That's very unlikely to happen though.  However, if the Democratic presidential candidate wins Ohio then I expect 3-5 of these seats to change hands if there are decent candidates running in all 7 districts.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, considering that 2006 was virtually a bust for Democrats on the Congressional level in Ohio (or at least, a disappointment), I'm not expecting 2008 to be a jackpot year for them two years removed from Taft.

Especially in basically Republican districts like Regula's.

[Smash255]

Yeah, considering that 2006 was virtually a bust for Democrats on the Congressional level in Ohio (or at least, a disappointment), I'm not expecting 2008 to be a jackpot year for them two years removed from Taft.

Especially in basically Republican districts like Regula's.

The district is super Republican, Bush won it by a little over 8, so it was basically about 5.5 points more GOP than nationally.  the district makes up Stark, Medina, Wayne and parts of Ashland county.  All areas which have been trending Democratic.  Not suggesting its going to go Dem, however its not as Republican as you might think.  Strickland actually won the district by the same if not higher than he won statewide.

[Padfoot]

Yeah, considering that 2006 was virtually a bust for Democrats on the Congressional level in Ohio (or at least, a disappointment), I'm not expecting 2008 to be a jackpot year for them two years removed from Taft.

Especially in basically Republican districts like Regula's.

If Strickland continues to ride his current wave of popularity into 2008 then I expect Democrats to do well in Ohio from the Presidential level down to county commissioners.

In 2006 Democrats actually won the congressional popular vote but they were successfully thwarted from winning more than one seat by Republican gerrymandering.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, considering that 2006 was virtually a bust for Democrats on the Congressional level in Ohio (or at least, a disappointment), I'm not expecting 2008 to be a jackpot year for them two years removed from Taft.

Especially in basically Republican districts like Regula's.

The district is super Republican, Bush won it by a little over 8, so it was basically about 5.5 points more GOP than nationally.  the district makes up Stark, Medina, Wayne and parts of Ashland county.  All areas which have been trending Democratic.  Not suggesting its going to go Dem, however its not as Republican as you might think.  Strickland actually won the district by the same if not higher than he won statewide.

The district is much more of a swing district than it is a Republican one.  Bush got just 54% in 2004 and 53% in 2000, just three points above his national average.  Also, Clinton won it in 1996.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, considering that 2006 was virtually a bust for Democrats on the Congressional level in Ohio (or at least, a disappointment), I'm not expecting 2008 to be a jackpot year for them two years removed from Taft.

Especially in basically Republican districts like Regula's.

The district is super Republican, Bush won it by a little over 8, so it was basically about 5.5 points more GOP than nationally.  the district makes up Stark, Medina, Wayne and parts of Ashland county.  All areas which have been trending Democratic.  Not suggesting its going to go Dem, however its not as Republican as you might think.  Strickland actually won the district by the same if not higher than he won statewide.

The district is much more of a swing district than it is a Republican one.  Bush got just 54% in 2004 and 53% in 2000, just three points above his national average.  Also, Clinton won it in 1996.

Clinton won, like, everything in 1996.

[Smash255]

Yeah, considering that 2006 was virtually a bust for Democrats on the Congressional level in Ohio (or at least, a disappointment), I'm not expecting 2008 to be a jackpot year for them two years removed from Taft.

Especially in basically Republican districts like Regula's.

The district is super Republican, Bush won it by a little over 8, so it was basically about 5.5 points more GOP than nationally.  the district makes up Stark, Medina, Wayne and parts of Ashland county.  All areas which have been trending Democratic.  Not suggesting its going to go Dem, however its not as Republican as you might think.  Strickland actually won the district by the same if not higher than he won statewide.

The district is much more of a swing district than it is a Republican one.  Bush got just 54% in 2004 and 53% in 2000, just three points above his national average.  Also, Clinton won it in 1996.

Clinton won, like, everything in 1996.

Point is the district is only a Republican leaning district Presidential wise, and has become a bit more Democratic.   Dems win nationally by any more than 4 points they have a real good shot at taking the district on the Pres level.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, considering that 2006 was virtually a bust for Democrats on the Congressional level in Ohio (or at least, a disappointment), I'm not expecting 2008 to be a jackpot year for them two years removed from Taft.

Especially in basically Republican districts like Regula's.

The district is super Republican, Bush won it by a little over 8, so it was basically about 5.5 points more GOP than nationally.  the district makes up Stark, Medina, Wayne and parts of Ashland county.  All areas which have been trending Democratic.  Not suggesting its going to go Dem, however its not as Republican as you might think.  Strickland actually won the district by the same if not higher than he won statewide.

The district is much more of a swing district than it is a Republican one.  Bush got just 54% in 2004 and 53% in 2000, just three points above his national average.  Also, Clinton won it in 1996.

Clinton won, like, everything in 1996.

No, he didn't.  He only won the national vote by eight points and lost swing states like Colorado, and states he carried in 1992 like Georgia and Montana.