The next "Florida 2000" & "Ohio 2004"

[gogmagog]

Which swing state going to be one so close that even at election night nobody would be able to predict which way it goes?

[Tender Branson]

If polling stations in KY and IN are closing on election night and the Republican candidate is at 55% there in the intial vote count then I think we´ll see NH called really soon for the Democratic candidate. This will be a good indicator and OH, IA, NM, NV will follow suit to be in the Dem. column. If this is the case I think that CO and FL will be closest on election night.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I still think OH will be called soon for the Dems and Michigan will be the closest state going to the GOP in the end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The labor GOTV effort will trump any tricks by the GOP and Hillary Clinton is leading in MI than any of the Republicans are leading in the primary. In the end the Dems should win MI, unless PA flips for the republicans.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ohio 2004?  Bush won it by more than 2%, and they called it about midnight Central.  It took them longer to call Minnesota and Michigan, for God's sake.

That's not exactly comparable to "Florida 2000."

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I believe that the Democrats have a clear advantage in Ohio in 2008, and if they take Florida it's pretty much over.  So those two are out.  Iowa took a huge swing to the Dems in '06 and Missouri has become pretty reliably Republican.  I don't see Michigan or Wisconsin going anywhere, they voted Dem in '04 and that's in a 3-pt national loss. 

Pennsylvania could be it if Guiliani is the GOP candidate.  I could see him doing well in the Philly suburbs. 

I think the western 4 (AZ, CO, NV, NM) will determine the winner in a tight race.  Considering the fact that it's looking like Rudy or Romney for the GOP....

First scenario...Romney pulls out a victory in Michigan. 

Those 4 will be very close and probably wind up determining the election.

Second scenario...Rudy takes NJ (which he probably would)

Again, those 4 determine the winner. 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Ohio 2004?  Bush won it by more than 2%, and they called it about midnight Central.  It took them longer to call Minnesota and Michigan, for God's sake.

That's not exactly comparable to "Florida 2000."

I think the issue was their pivotal status - I didn't think Kerry would lose MI or MN.

[MasterJedi]

It will be Ohio again. Everything should be the same as 2000/2004 except that Iowa will more than likely be Democratic and New Mexico will be a swing state again.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Romney or Giuliani taking NJ or MI, the Dems are leading by larger margins than the GOP are in those states in the primary. At any rate the Romney or Thompson or Giuliani would pull an upset in IA and WI before MI or NJ.

[AndrewTX]

It's nearly impossible to tell right now, because it all depends on the candidate.

 If Romney is the candidate, Ohio is Dem for sure, but if it's Giuliani, than the race could become a bit more competitve, but still dem.

 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It will be Ohio again. Everything should be the same as 2000/2004 except that Iowa will more than likely be Democratic and New Mexico will be a swing state again.

NM was a swing state in 2004. Winning a state by less than a point hardly makes it safe.

[TomC]

Ohio and Florida again

[Reaganfan]

Ohio and Florida again

Ohio and Pennsylvania IMO

[opebo]

I voted for Colorado and Nevada, as they will be the closest, but the election will be Democrat by then due to retension of Kerry states plus Ohio.

[© tweed]

Democrats should win by enough that it doesn't matter.

[AndrewTX]

It will be Ohio again. Everything should be the same as 2000/2004 except that Iowa will more than likely be Democratic and New Mexico will be a swing state again.

NM was a swing state in 2004. Winning a state by less than a point hardly makes it safe.

 I don't think he was saying that it was safe, I think he was stating that Iowa will go to the Democrats, where as New Mexico will continue to be a swing state.

[Likely Voter]

Ohio is the new Ohio

but the southwest is also the new ohio

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If Richardson is the Dem VP candidate, NM will not be a swing state.

[poughies]

Michigan or NM/Colorado

[AndrewTX]

I'm still staying Colorado or Nevada

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Ohio 2004?  Bush won it by more than 2%, and they called it about midnight Central.  It took them longer to call Minnesota and Michigan, for God's sake.

That's not exactly comparable to "Florida 2000."

I think the issue was their pivotal status - I didn't think Kerry would lose MI or MN.

And yet both were about as close as Ohio was.

[Reaganfan]

I loved how one of the reasons back in 2004 that the Democrats thought they would win Ohio was because of Cleveland's "bad economy". Business is moving away from the inner city of Cleveland, for "various reasons". That failed. While Northeast Ohio went Kerry, the rest Bush. I can easily see the same happening in 2008 and the Democrats being stunned why with "the Ohio GOP in shambles!"

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Take a look at Bush's current approval ratings in Ohio.

[SPC]

I loved how one of the reasons back in 2004 that the Democrats thought they would win Ohio was because of Cleveland's "bad economy". Business is moving away from the inner city of Cleveland, for "various reasons". That failed. While Northeast Ohio went Kerry, the rest Bush. I can easily see the same happening in 2008 and the Democrats being stunned why with "the Ohio GOP in shambles!"

Well, back when I went to Florida in February, I remember my uncle telling me that tons of rednecks from Ohio were moving there, so I don't know if that will make a difference.

[Reaganfan]

Take a look at Bush's current approval ratings in Ohio.

Yes indeed, if George Bush were able to run for a third term in 2008, he would get creamed here.