West Virginia 2000

[Adlai Stevenson]

Though 37% of West Virginians consider themselves conservatives -- just 22% that say they are liberals -- a new poll suggests West Virginia might vote for a Democrat for president next year.

If the general election were held today, Sen. Hillary Clinton would carry West Virginia in a head to head match-up with either Sen. John McCain or Rudy Giuliani. Clinton beats McCain 41% to 34% and beats Giuliani 42% to 36%.

Key caveat: "The research did not include all presidential candidates or potential match-ups. And also the research was done before Fred Thompson considered getting in the race."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/07/09/clinton_leads_in_west_virginia.html

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Although Ms. Clinton has worked with republican senators in the senate to get things done, she still has some of the same views as John Kerry like equal rights for gays, for partial birth abortion, and pro-gun control. In a populist state like WV, although they don't want Roe overturned, they want a ban on partial birth abortion. I think the GOP win by 6-9 pts, still. Remember John Kerry was leading in WV in the summer of 2004 in ARG polls as well.

West Virginia has voted correctly except for 68, 80, and 88. It is a good state to see how the nation is trending.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Figuring out why West Virginia went for Bush in 2000 isn't rocket science.  In fact, it's relatively low-tech: coal.

Coal is a top economic issue in the state, and Bush made a heavy pro-coal push in the state while campaigning there.  Eco-warrior Gore just couldn't compete with such a popular (but environmentally unfriendly) tactic.  Social issues were the nail in the coffin—Gore couldn't compete there, either.

I can't help but think West Virginia may wind up flipping back to the Republicans on the environment/coal issue, especially if climate change and Kyoto wind up being important issues in 2008.  Ironically, WV is one of the few states where Fred Thompson or a similar "dirty," conservative Republican would play better than the socially moderate, relatively environmentally-friendly Giuliani.