House Membership Change in 2008?

[Conan]

If Linda Stender could not take down Mike Ferguson in 2006, she will not do it in 2008

If Stender didn't take down Feguson in 2006, there's all the more reason she will in a presidential year in a district that is trending democratic and I think won by Al Gore.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The 2000 district was won by Al Gore, but it changed greatly in redistricting. The current seat was won by Bush both times.

[Verily]

Verily,

When referring to downswiththeleft syndrome...the words "You're delusional" are implied from the start and don't need to be said.

I think he should share whatever he's smoking, must be good $hit

Ah, but reminding him at every turn may help mitigate the disease.

[bullmoose88]

Verily,

When referring to downswiththeleft syndrome...the words "You're delusional" are implied from the start and don't need to be said.

I think he should share whatever he's smoking, must be good $hit

Ah, but reminding him at every turn may help mitigate the disease.

Point Well Taken.

And Phil...Fitz is the only Republican who is considering running who could win...there is at least one name who could definitely give Murphy a run for his money...

[Keystone Phil]

And Phil...Fitz is the only Republican who is considering running who could win...there is at least one name who could definitely give Murphy a run for his money...

Are you saying there is at least one other name who could give him a run who hasn't mentioned running?

Let me guess. You're thinking of Greenwood or Schweiker, neither of which are ever going to run...

[bullmoose88]

And Phil...Fitz is the only Republican who is considering running who could win...there is at least one name who could definitely give Murphy a run for his money...

Are you saying there is at least one other name who could give him a run who hasn't mentioned running?

Let me guess. You're thinking of Greenwood or Schweiker, neither of which are ever going to run...

I think Tomlinson has good enough credentials to challenge murphy too...if age (perceived) isnt a factor.

[Padfoot]

After all of the "Kerry won GA-12 in 2004" arguments I'd just like to remind everyone that Georgia was redistricted between 2004 and 2006 which makes this argument pretty weak.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

After all of the "Kerry won GA-12 in 2004" arguments I'd just like to remind everyone that Georgia was redistricted between 2004 and 2006 which makes this argument pretty weak.

Kerry won GA-12 under the current lines.

[Mr.Phips]

After all of the "Kerry won GA-12 in 2004" arguments I'd just like to remind everyone that Georgia was redistricted between 2004 and 2006 which makes this argument pretty weak.

Redistricting did little to GA-12 but get rid of Clarke county and add in some rural black areas that were in Marshall's district.  Marshall's district saw its black percentage drop by about five points as it lost the eastern black counties to GA-12 and picked up some Republican territory closer to Atlanta. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The current GA-12 was about 50/50 but Kerry narrowly won. Considering that Barrow is a blue dog far more moderate than Kerry and the district is mostly rural it shouldn't be a problem for him to win normally with these numbers, the issue in 2006 was absolutely horrid black turnout.

[Keystone Phil]

And Phil...Fitz is the only Republican who is considering running who could win...there is at least one name who could definitely give Murphy a run for his money...

Are you saying there is at least one other name who could give him a run who hasn't mentioned running?

Let me guess. You're thinking of Greenwood or Schweiker, neither of which are ever going to run...

I think Tomlinson has good enough credentials to challenge murphy too...if age (perceived) isnt a factor.

He'd also be a good challenger but I don't think he has the charisma to compete with Murphy. Remember that he had a rather tough race last year with former PA 8 candidate Paul Lang (who was also a veteran).

[muon2]

What the heck are Democrats going to pick up in Michigan?  And two seats out of Illinois?

IL-06 and IL-10. MI-07 and MI-09. I'm not saying the Democrats will win those, but they certainly stand a chance.

IL-06 was as close as it was in 2006 for three reasons: open seat, compelling D candidate, big D year. The first factor is gone. The second only exists if Duckworth runs again. The third only exists if Obama is on the national ticket.

With Duckworth out as of today, the second factor is gone as well.

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[DownWithTheLeft]

I think NY-19 has a great chance of flipping, I will be vacationing there and hope to get a feel of what the district thinks (all though this has turned out to be unreliable in the past)

[Conan]

I think NY-19 has a great chance of flipping, I will be vacationing there and hope to get a feel of what the district thinks (all though this has turned out to be unreliable in the past)

NY 19 isn't flipping.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I think NY-19 has a great chance of flipping, I will be vacationing there and hope to get a feel of what the district thinks (all though this has turned out to be unreliable in the past)

NY 19 isn't flipping.

Care to elaborate?  Actually I am confusing but NY-19 w/NY-20, but still I think they both could flip.  John Hall's win was a fluke, and NY-20 is too conservative for Kristen Gilliland

[Conan]

I think NY-19 has a great chance of flipping, I will be vacationing there and hope to get a feel of what the district thinks (all though this has turned out to be unreliable in the past)

NY 19 isn't flipping.

Care to elaborate?  Actually I am confusing but NY-19 w/NY-20, but still I think they both could flip.  John Hall's win was a fluke, and NY-20 is too conservative for Kristen Gilliland

I don't care to elaborate and I can tell you that there will be a minimum net gain of 1 seat for the dems in 2008.

[Erc]

As much as I hate John Hall's guts, NY-19 won't be flipping next year.  I have to admit, the guy ran a great campaign (and being *extremely* lucky on a few counts didn't hurt either), and in 2008, even if the national mood is more pro-Republican, Hall has the advantage of incumbency, the advantage of money, and...that the Republicans will have a hard time coming up with a good candidate.

NY-20 has a shot of flipping back (I think) depending on how things play out nationally.

[Sam Spade]

Erc is quite correct on this one.  NY-20 is the seat Republicans lost around there in 2006 that they have the best shot of picking back up, imho.  Of course, any NY seat moves up the ladder for Republicans if Giuliani is on the ticket and moves up the ladder more if Hillary is not the nominee.

[SomeLawStudent]

I hope your not counting on Shays loosing re-election.

 He'll lose re-election when Eaves is Governor of Mississippi

This happens to be my district.

Shays is a goner, the only reason he survived last time was because black turnout in  Bridgeport was abysmally low.  That won't happen in a Presidential year.