House Membership Change in 2008?

[Jaggerjack]

D>30: D+1
R>30: R+1
and so forth.
Overall results for 2008: D+5
Well, this is what I think will happen. Hope it's not too hackish.

[Verily]

You think Charlie Melancon will be defeated? Why?

[Jaggerjack]

Oh wait... wrong district. I thought Melancon was in New Orleans.

Change: D+6

[AndrewTX]

I hope your not counting on Shays loosing re-election.

 He'll lose re-election when Eaves is Governor of Mississippi

[Jaggerjack]

Regardless if he'll lose or not, he IS the last Republican congresman of New England. The Democrats are going to pour huge amounts of money to unseat him, and I think they may.

[Verily]

I hope your not counting on Shays loosing re-election.

 He'll lose re-election when Eaves is Governor of Mississippi

I don't understand this extreme faith in the reelection of Shays (and Gerlach from Republicans in Pennsylvania). They are both clearly highly vulnerable, and their districts are steadily becoming less and less favorable. Yes, they won reelection (very narrowly) in 2006, but those were also both reruns of 2004. You're in denial if you don't think Shays and Gerlach are among the most vulnerable House incumbents.

[DownWithTheLeft]

If Linda Stender could not take down Mike Ferguson in 2006, she will not do it in 2008

[AndrewTX]

The seat is Chris's to keep as long as he wants. If he couldn't be taken down in 2004, and in 2006, than what makes him more vunerable in 2008, other than the fact he is the last Republican in the House for New England?
 
 I'm not saying Chris will walk in with 60% of the vote, but he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

[Jaggerjack]

If Linda Stender could not take down Mike Ferguson in 2006, she will not do it in 2008

Oh, I daresay more energy into the campaign may (possibly) beat Ferguson. He's supposed to have a hyper-Republican district, and yet he won by just two points.

And I'm interested in seeing what you all think. Make some maps.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Time for my first overly optimistic prediction.  Carrying the momentum of a 300+ EV victory for Fred Thompson Republicans gain 13 seats.

The list:
CA-4, CA-11, AZ-5, TX-22, KS-2, FL-22, OH-18, IN-9, GA-12, GA-15, PA-4, PA-8, PA-7, PA-10, NH-1

Dems gain: NM-1, NC-8

Map:

[Jaggerjack]

I thought Republicans already hold the 4th.

[Verily]

If Linda Stender could not take down Mike Ferguson in 2006, she will not do it in 2008

I would say LoBiondo is in much more danger than Ferguson. He and Don Young are in trouble for (revealed post-2006 elections) connections with the Abramoff scandal, and LoBiondo's district is ultra-marginal.

[Verily]

Time for my first overly optimistic prediction.  Carrying the momentum of a 300+ EV victory for Fred Thompson Republicans gain 13 seats.

The list:
CA-4, CA-11, AZ-5, TX-22, KS-2, FL-22, OH-18, IN-9, GA-12, GA-15, PA-4, PA-8, PA-7, PA-10, NH-1

Dems gain: NM-1, NC-8

... The Republicans already hold CA-04 (though they look likely to lose it in 2008 due to mounting scandal). You're also delusional if you think the Republicans will win back OH-18, PA-07 or PA-08.

The seat is Chris's to keep as long as he wants. If he couldn't be taken down in 2004, and in 2006, than what makes him more vunerable in 2008, other than the fact he is the last Republican in the House for New England?
 
 I'm not saying Chris will walk in with 60% of the vote, but he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

First off, the Democrats will (probably) be running a different candidate; running the same candidate as in 2004 definitely hurt them in 2006. It will be a Presidential year, so the lean of the district will come more strongly into focus than in 2006. The district is probably at least 2 points more Democratic now than it was in 2004.

I by no means guarantee Shays' defeat, but this utter denial of the possibility of Shays' defeat baffles me.

[Jaggerjack]

V2:

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If Linda Stender could not take down Mike Ferguson in 2006, she will not do it in 2008

Oh, I daresay more energy into the campaign may (possibly) beat Ferguson. He's supposed to have a hyper-Republican district, and yet he won by just two points.

In 2006.  I don't know where the "extra energy" will be coming from: Stender was armed to the teeth last cycle.

What the heck are Democrats going to pick up in Michigan?  And two seats out of Illinois?

I would say LoBiondo is in much more danger than Ferguson. He and Don Young are in trouble for (revealed post-2006 elections) connections with the Abramoff scandal, and LoBiondo's district is ultra-marginal.

It's a swing district, sure, but I don't think the Abramoff ties are going to stick.

And even if he's a potential target in 2008 (which I can see some reasoning behind), there's no way he's more vulnerable than Ferguson.

[Jaggerjack]

Maybe a few close seats from 2006. Same for Illinois. Though in Michigan's case, I'm not sure if it'd work, because they're so gerrymandered.

[Verily]

What the heck are Democrats going to pick up in Michigan?  And two seats out of Illinois?

IL-06 and IL-10. MI-07 and MI-09. I'm not saying the Democrats will win those, but they certainly stand a chance.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's a swing district, sure, but I don't think the Abramoff ties are going to stick.

And even if he's a potential target in 2008 (which I can see some reasoning behind), there's no way he's more vulnerable than Ferguson.
[/quote]

Depends on who runs for the Democrats in LoBiondo's district, I suppose.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Depends on who runs for the Democrats in LoBiondo's district, I suppose.

If it's not Van Drew, it won't be even remotely competitive.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

You can probably guess what seats are flipping where.  I think there may be some offsetting gains in New York and Pennsylvania.

[AndrewTX]

I would be surprised if I lived outside of the district, but Chris is a pretty popular guy out here. I'm not saying Chris can't lose, but I don't think he will in 2008. The only candidate strong enough for me to say Chris could really lose would be Blumenthal, and he aint running.

And BTW, the only Republican pick ups I see is TX-22, and maybe the two Georgia seats, but that's a tough call.

[Jaggerjack]

I would be surprised if I lived outside of the district, but Chris is a pretty popular guy out here. I'm not saying Chris can't lose, but I don't think he will in 2008. The only candidate strong enough for me to say Chris could really lose would be Blumenthal, and he aint running.

And BTW, the only Republican pick ups I see is TX-22, and maybe the two Georgia seats, but that's a tough call.

Oh come on... it's GEORGIA, remember?

[Mr.Phips]

Time for my first overly optimistic prediction.  Carrying the momentum of a 300+ EV victory for Fred Thompson Republicans gain 13 seats.

The list:
CA-4, CA-11, AZ-5, TX-22, KS-2, FL-22, OH-18, IN-9, GA-12, GA-15, PA-4, PA-8, PA-7, PA-10, NH-1

Dems gain: NM-1, NC-8

Map:

Republicans can't even find candidates in AZ-05, OH-18, and IN-09.  FL-22, PA-07, and PA-08 are all Dem districts. 

[Mr.Phips]

D>30: D+1
R>30: R+1
and so forth.
Overall results for 2008: D+5
Well, this is what I think will happen. Hope it's not too hackish.

Republicans are not picking up two seats each in Florida and Georgia.

[Mr.Phips]

You can probably guess what seats are flipping where.  I think there may be some offsetting gains in New York and Pennsylvania.

Kagen doesn't even have an opponent.  GA-12 leans strongly Democratic, ie a seat that went for John Kerry in the South.

[Mr.Phips]

I thought Republicans already hold the 4th.

They do.