would hillary win any bush states?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Depends on the opponent

Thompson: Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida

Romney: West Virginia, Arkansas, Ohio, possibly Florida

Giuliani: Iowa, Ohio

McCain: Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida

My take:

Thompson: West Virginia, Arkansas, Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, Nevada

Romney: West Virginia, Arkansas, Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, Nevada

Giuliani: West Virginia, Arkansas, Iowa, Ohio, New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio

McCain: Arkansas, Iowa, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada

I don't know why so many are overlooking Nevada, considering it was basically the national average last time.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

People will see a guy on the ballot who promises to continue the war in Iraq indefinitely, and they'll vote for the main candidate running against him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

People will see a guy on the ballot who promises to continue the war in Iraq indefinitely, and they'll vote for the main candidate running against him.

I disagree. Hillary is not anti-war...neither is Giuliani. If the War on Terror in Iraq is the main issue next year, and we have two candidates that want to change or end the war but are not staunch anti-war...then the voters move to likeability, which Rudy has much more of than Hillary.

Hillary wants to set a date for ending the war. Giuliani wants to continue it indefinitely. Huge difference. I also have no doubt you'd say unambigously anti-war Obama and Edwards would lose Ohio.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

People will see a guy on the ballot who promises to continue the war in Iraq indefinitely, and they'll vote for the main candidate running against him.

I disagree. Hillary is not anti-war...neither is Giuliani. If the War on Terror in Iraq is the main issue next year, and we have two candidates that want to change or end the war but are not staunch anti-war...then the voters move to likeability, which Rudy has much more of than Hillary.

Hillary wants to set a date for ending the war. Giuliani wants to continue it indefinitely. Huge difference. I also have no doubt you'd say unambigously anti-war Obama and Edwards would lose Ohio.

Yes, they would both lose Ohio. For obvious reasons, of course.

Such as? And the "too liberal" argument won't work in a state that elected Sherrod Brown.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And yet they want to pull out of an unpopular war that polls show is the biggest issue against a guy who wants to continue it indefinitely and supports the unpopular "troop surge" and all that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ohio will also depend a lot on the popularity of Gov. Strickland at the time of the election.  Even though he won't be on the ballot, I imagine his influence will be large.  I believe he has already endorsed Clinton and the Columbus Dispatch recently ran a "what if..." editorial depicting a fictional phone call between Clinton and Strickland in which Clinton asks Strickland to be her running mate in order to improve her chances in Ohio.  I doubt that she will choose our governor to run with her but anything could happen.  Regardless, I think that Strickland will have a sizable impact on the election and the Ohio result will be tied closely to his popularity.

Well as I said in another thread, he currently has a 59-32 rating. What's impressive though, is he has a net positive among Republicans and conservatives:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4a083a4d-17a8-4274-b7d1-1a357e72a0d7