would hillary win any bush states?

[Reaganfan]

Hillary is not well liked in Ohio...or really anywhere. My take is that it goes for the GOP if McCain, Thompson or Giuliani is nominee. If Al Gore and John Kerry didn't win Ohio...against George Bush...how the heck can Shrillary?

[Reaganfan]

Hillary is not well liked in Ohio...or really anywhere. My take is that it goes for the GOP if McCain, Thompson or Giuliani is nominee. If Al Gore and John Kerry didn't win Ohio...against George Bush...how the heck can Shrillary?

...because the Republican party is now considered a joke (especially in Ohio).

See, but when people see the names on the ballot:

Rudolph Giuliani for President
Hillary Clinton for President....

That doesn't make a difference. Many people deeply think about the future once they get into that voting booth. Ohio is a wild card. I know a chick who hated George Bush and was gonna vote for Kerry, then she heard Kerry joke, "We have better hair" and said he was an ass, and voted for Bush. Ohioans are a wildcard. Like when the Gore 2000 campaign thought Gore would win Ohio by winning older women on his anti-gun stance...when he actually lost Ohio to older women because of his anti-gun stance.

[Reaganfan]

People will see a guy on the ballot who promises to continue the war in Iraq indefinitely, and they'll vote for the main candidate running against him.

I disagree. Hillary is not anti-war...neither is Giuliani. If the War on Terror in Iraq is the main issue next year, and we have two candidates that want to change or end the war but are not staunch anti-war...then the voters move to likeability, which Rudy has much more of than Hillary.

[Reaganfan]

Hillary is not well liked in Ohio...or really anywhere. My take is that it goes for the GOP if McCain, Thompson or Giuliani is nominee. If Al Gore and John Kerry didn't win Ohio...against George Bush...how the heck can Shrillary?

It's called the republican party in Ohio

Dangerous thing to pin chances on...

[Reaganfan]

People will see a guy on the ballot who promises to continue the war in Iraq indefinitely, and they'll vote for the main candidate running against him.

I disagree. Hillary is not anti-war...neither is Giuliani. If the War on Terror in Iraq is the main issue next year, and we have two candidates that want to change or end the war but are not staunch anti-war...then the voters move to likeability, which Rudy has much more of than Hillary.

Hillary wants to set a date for ending the war. Giuliani wants to continue it indefinitely. Huge difference. I also have no doubt you'd say unambigously anti-war Obama and Edwards would lose Ohio.

Yes, they would both lose Ohio. For obvious reasons, of course.

[Reaganfan]

People will see a guy on the ballot who promises to continue the war in Iraq indefinitely, and they'll vote for the main candidate running against him.

I disagree. Hillary is not anti-war...neither is Giuliani. If the War on Terror in Iraq is the main issue next year, and we have two candidates that want to change or end the war but are not staunch anti-war...then the voters move to likeability, which Rudy has much more of than Hillary.

Hillary wants to set a date for ending the war. Giuliani wants to continue it indefinitely. Huge difference. I also have no doubt you'd say unambigously anti-war Obama and Edwards would lose Ohio.

Yes, they would both lose Ohio. For obvious reasons, of course.

Such as? And the "too liberal" argument won't work in a state that elected Sherrod Brown.

In a national election, it hurts more. Also, 2006 was a more unfriendly year for the GOP than 2008 will be. But no, Obama is inexperienced and very liberal, and Edwards is a guy who believes in two Americas and no war on terror. They would get creamed.

[Reaganfan]

good question..... I guess the notion of blue collar worker?

Coming from someone who has spoken to people about the issue, the reason for some...which I strongly oppose...is the issue of Obama's race. The black population is increasing dramatically near Cleveland and the surronding suburbs in Cuyahoga County. In my hometown, it is estimated the black population increased from 17% in 2000 to well over 30% this year. This has lead to many people...white and black...getting tired of their new "neighbors". Small towns near Cleveland that have been running with business for generations are shutting down and moving away business. That's why you often hear "businesses are leaving Cleveland." The Cleveland Plain Dealer has editiorals that often stress the importance of this issue without offering a phrase that will send Jesse Jackson up here.

The point is, I know of probably 5 people, Democratic Kerry voters in Ohio...that would stay home if the election were between Obama and someone else. Keep in mind...I don't know that many people currently...but if I know 5 non-Obama stay at home Democrats in Ohio...imagine how many others there are in the state...and the nation as a whole. I know it's wrong, and I acknowledge that. I mean, the first person I ever voted for was an African American man. I would never hesitate voting for a person due to their race. But, if George W. Bush could be at 45-50% approval and win Ohio against Al Gore and John Kerry...why couldn't the much more popular Rudy Giuliani and John McCain against weaker candidates such as Clinton and Obama?

[Reaganfan]

Ohio will also depend a lot on the popularity of Gov. Strickland at the time of the election.  Even though he won't be on the ballot, I imagine his influence will be large.  I believe he has already endorsed Clinton and the Columbus Dispatch recently ran a "what if..." editorial depicting a fictional phone call between Clinton and Strickland in which Clinton asks Strickland to be her running mate in order to improve her chances in Ohio.  I doubt that she will choose our governor to run with her but anything could happen.  Regardless, I think that Strickland will have a sizable impact on the election and the Ohio result will be tied closely to his popularity.

Well as I said in another thread, he currently has a 59-32 rating. What's impressive though, is he has a net positive among Republicans and conservatives:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=4a083a4d-17a8-4274-b7d1-1a357e72a0d7

I actually don't mind Governor Strickland.