Japanese House of Councillors Election, July 2007
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  Japanese House of Councillors Election, July 2007
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Author Topic: Japanese House of Councillors Election, July 2007  (Read 9807 times)
Verily
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« on: July 08, 2007, 10:43:21 PM »
« edited: July 08, 2007, 10:49:44 PM by Verily »

Sorry if there's already a thread, but I couldn't find one.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has managed to make himself highly unpopular (joining Bush at a sub-30 approval rating: 28%). The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the primary opposition, has never controlled the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, but looks likely to gain control later this month. They defeated the misnamed Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the 2004 HoC election, but elections are staggered, with the other half of seats in the HoC now up for election. The DPJ needs to gain 14 seats from the LDP and their New Komeito allies to be able to form an anti-LDP majority. (Though it is worth noting that New Komeito suggested the possibility of a DPJ-New Komeito government before the 2005 elections, meaning that they may abandon the LDP if things go badly for the LDP but well for New Komeito.)

The House of Councillors is weaker than the House of Representatives, which chooses the Prime Minister (so the LDP will still govern even if they lose the election). Abe's position as Prime Minister, however, would come into danger from LDP dissidents should they lose the election except that the LDP has no obvious replacement PM to rally behind.

The election is on 29 July.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election%2C_2007

The DPJ is center-left, the LDP is all over the place (due to its historical dominance of the political scene) but probably best described as center-right. New Komeito is conservative Buddhist but centrist otherwise. The minor Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party that are also likely to win a few seats are obviously left-wing, and the breakaway People's New Party, a split from the LDP, is as murky in its ideology, though allied with the DPJ.
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Verily
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2007, 08:52:53 PM »
« Edited: July 22, 2007, 08:57:24 PM by Verily »

Guess no one cares about Japan.

The election was initially scheduled for today, but the government (unpopularly) rescheduled the elections to a week from now to "finish legislative business" (i.e., ram a few bits of their agenda through before losing the election).

Abe's popularity has continued to fall; his latest approval rating was 25%. The DPJ leads the LDP-New Komeito coalition by about 6-8 points in opinion polls.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2007, 11:50:07 AM »

Guess no one cares about Japan.

The election was initially scheduled for today, but the government (unpopularly) rescheduled the elections to a week from now to "finish legislative business" (i.e., ram a few bits of their agenda through before losing the election).

Abe's popularity has continued to fall; his latest approval rating was 25%. The DPJ leads the LDP-New Komeito coalition by about 6-8 points in opinion polls.

I most certainly do. It will be nice to see the LDP lose an election for a change. Smiley

I presume that might be the end of Abe then (and back to "revolving door PMs")?

Very little to comment upon otherwise.
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« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2007, 12:02:24 PM »

The DPJ is center-left, the LDP is all over the place (due to its historical dominance of the political scene) but probably best described as center-right. New Komeito is conservative Buddhist but centrist otherwise. The minor Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party that are also likely to win a few seats are obviously left-wing, and the breakaway People's New Party, a split from the LDP, is as murky in its ideology, though allied with the DPJ.

I'm no expert, but I also read/heard descriptions that both the LDP and the DPJ could be better desribed as "center-right to center-left parties"... so that both are neither right nor left (or very different from each other in terms of ideology, for that matter).
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Colin
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« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2007, 12:18:42 PM »

The DPJ is center-left, the LDP is all over the place (due to its historical dominance of the political scene) but probably best described as center-right. New Komeito is conservative Buddhist but centrist otherwise. The minor Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party that are also likely to win a few seats are obviously left-wing, and the breakaway People's New Party, a split from the LDP, is as murky in its ideology, though allied with the DPJ.

I'm no expert, but I also read/heard descriptions that both the LDP and the DPJ could be better desribed as "center-right to center-left parties"... so that both are neither right nor left (or very different from each other in terms of ideology, for that matter).

I would agree with that. Both the DPJ and LPJ are non-ideological parties. The DPJ is just a coalition of everyone who doesn't like the LPJ and the LPJ is a coalition of everyone who wants to be in power. This makes for what is possibly one of the worst political arrangements in the world.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2007, 12:29:53 PM »

The DPJ is center-left, the LDP is all over the place (due to its historical dominance of the political scene) but probably best described as center-right. New Komeito is conservative Buddhist but centrist otherwise. The minor Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party that are also likely to win a few seats are obviously left-wing, and the breakaway People's New Party, a split from the LDP, is as murky in its ideology, though allied with the DPJ.

I'm no expert, but I also read/heard descriptions that both the LDP and the DPJ could be better desribed as "center-right to center-left parties"... so that both are neither right nor left (or very different from each other in terms of ideology, for that matter).

I would agree with that. Both the DPJ and LPJ are non-ideological parties. The DPJ is just a coalition of everyone who doesn't like the LPJ and the LPJ is a coalition of everyone who wants to be in power. This makes for what is possibly one of the worst political arrangements in the world.

Which makes it sound exactly like Ireland....
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Hash
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« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2007, 12:43:42 PM »

Far from an expert, but the Communist Party does relatively well in Japan, no? (Atleast compared to most European communists)
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2007, 12:46:10 PM »

Far from an expert, but the Communist Party does relatively well in Japan, no? (Atleast compared to most European communists)

As far as I can understand (again no expert) - yes, around 7% of the vote or so. Though in saying that the JCP was never connected to nor followed the Soviet Union or Maoist China, and always saw it's role as constitutional - not revolutionary.

Anyway the Social Democrats by some strange freak are probably the more left-wing of the two leftist parties in Japan.
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Verily
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2007, 12:53:35 PM »

The DPJ is center-left, the LDP is all over the place (due to its historical dominance of the political scene) but probably best described as center-right. New Komeito is conservative Buddhist but centrist otherwise. The minor Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party that are also likely to win a few seats are obviously left-wing, and the breakaway People's New Party, a split from the LDP, is as murky in its ideology, though allied with the DPJ.

I'm no expert, but I also read/heard descriptions that both the LDP and the DPJ could be better desribed as "center-right to center-left parties"... so that both are neither right nor left (or very different from each other in terms of ideology, for that matter).

I would agree with that. Both the DPJ and LPJ are non-ideological parties. The DPJ is just a coalition of everyone who doesn't like the LPJ and the LPJ is a coalition of everyone who wants to be in power. This makes for what is possibly one of the worst political arrangements in the world.

Sort of, certainly, but there are no factions within the DPJ that could be considered further right than centrist, and no factions within the LDP that could be considered further left than centrist (though historically there were).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2007, 01:05:36 PM »

I find Japanese politics interesting, but highly depressing.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2007, 01:07:16 PM »

I find Japanese politics interesting, but highly depressing.

Almost as depressing as Irish Politics..... Sad
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2007, 01:14:12 PM »

I find Japanese politics interesting, but highly depressing.

Almost as depressing as Irish Politics..... Sad

As the LDP has only been out of power once since 1954 (and not for very long), Japanese politics is, probably, slightly worse.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2007, 01:21:50 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2007, 05:47:48 PM by Gully Foyle »

I find Japanese politics interesting, but highly depressing.

Almost as depressing as Irish Politics..... Sad

As the LDP has only been out of power once since 1954 (and not for very long), Japanese politics is, probably, slightly worse.

Under LDP leadership was Japan ever near-bankruptcy (FFS in the 80s it looked we needed the world bank to bail us out).. and still easily re-elected. Have LDP voters have a history of voting for parties whose economic policies directly effect them negatively? Again, Jack Lynch and Eamonn De Valera's massive support in the west while that region was on a brink of near-famine. Those are the litmus tests.

*Breathes deep*

Sorry for the threadjack, everybody. (again)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2007, 02:47:47 AM »

Does anyone know why some articles mention the Japanese House of Councillors has 242 seats and others 247 ? I mean today 50% of the seats are up for election = 121 but currently there are 247 seats held in the Japanese House of Councillors ... where are the other 5 seats coming from ? Are they appointed by someone ?
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2007, 03:33:04 AM »

There used to be 252 seats in the Japanese House of Councillors, with 126 elected every three years to a six year term.  Starting with the 2001 election they elected only 121 each time so between 2001 and 2004 they had 247 Councillors and since the 2004 election they've had 242 Councillors.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: July 29, 2007, 04:04:49 AM »

There used to be 252 seats in the Japanese House of Councillors, with 126 elected every three years to a six year term.  Starting with the 2001 election they elected only 121 each time so between 2001 and 2004 they had 247 Councillors and since the 2004 election they've had 242 Councillors.

Ah good Smiley Someone´s got to update the Japanese Wikipedia election pages then ...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #16 on: July 29, 2007, 08:20:31 AM »

Exit polls report that the LDP has been beaten, and beaten badly. From the FT's website:

Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic party on Sunday night appeared to be headed for a crushing defeat in upper house elections according to exit polls, which predicted a landslide victory for the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan.

Of the 121 seats up for grabs – half the upper house total – exit polls by all the major broadcasters showed the LDP winning 44 seats or less, with the DPJ winning at least 55 and possibly more than 60. Some television polls showed the LDP falling below 40, approaching the worst defeat in its history.

If the polls are right and the DPJ wins a simple majority, it would be the first time an opposition party has single-handedly controlled the upper house since the long-dominant LDP was formed in 1955.
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Hash
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« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2007, 08:35:50 AM »

Good.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #18 on: July 29, 2007, 08:50:58 AM »

With 28 seats yet to be called, the numbers are:

DPJ 54, LDP 24, NK 6, JCP 2, SDP 1, PNP 1, NPN 0, Indies 5
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: July 29, 2007, 12:31:29 PM »

The opposition parties will have about 136-139 seats in the new parliament, while the governing coalition will have 103-106.

Current results:

Opposition: 136
Ruling Parties: 103
Undecided: 3

http://www.nhk.or.jp/english
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Verily
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« Reply #20 on: July 29, 2007, 12:39:13 PM »

According that same website (2004 seats):

DPJ: 59 (+50) = 109
LDP: 36 (+49) = 85
NKP: 8 (+11) = 19
JCP: 3 (+4) = 7
SDP: 1 (+2) = 3
PNP: 2 (+0) = 2
NPN: 1 (+0) = 1
Others: 0 (+5) = 5
Uncalled: 4
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #21 on: July 29, 2007, 02:21:57 PM »

DPJ 60, LDP 37, NK 8, JCP 3, SDP 2, PNP 2, NPN 1, Indies 7
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Verily
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« Reply #22 on: July 29, 2007, 08:41:24 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2007, 09:14:36 PM by Verily »

DPJ: 109
LDP: 83
NKP: 20
JCP: 7
SDP: 5
PNP: 4
NPN: 1
Ind: 13

anti-LDP: 126, could govern without PNP and/or NPN but unlikely to do so
DPJ-NKP: 129, an alternative if the NKP decides that the LDP is a sinking ship

Both totals do not include independents (many of whom are LDP or DPJ in all but name).

Also, vote percentages:

DPJ: 39.5%
LDP: 28.1%
NKP: 13.2%
JCP: 7.5%
SDP: 4.5%
NPN: 3.0%
PNP: 2.2%
Others: 2.1%

That's a record national high for the DPJ and a record low for the LDP.
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Cubby
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« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2007, 01:36:40 AM »

Where can I find maps?  I'd like to see how the different regions of Japan voted.

I am so happy about these results! 
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2007, 07:16:05 AM »

Where can I find maps?  I'd like to see how the different regions of Japan voted.

I am so happy about these results! 

Kireev, who is also a member on this forum, has a good site with election maps from all over the world. He has not created a map for the election yesterday, but from the previous in 2004:

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