Japanese House of Councillors Election, July 2007

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Sorry if there's already a thread, but I couldn't find one.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has managed to make himself highly unpopular (joining Bush at a sub-30 approval rating: 28%). The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), the primary opposition, has never controlled the House of Councillors, the upper house of the National Diet, but looks likely to gain control later this month. They defeated the misnamed Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the 2004 HoC election, but elections are staggered, with the other half of seats in the HoC now up for election. The DPJ needs to gain 14 seats from the LDP and their New Komeito allies to be able to form an anti-LDP majority. (Though it is worth noting that New Komeito suggested the possibility of a DPJ-New Komeito government before the 2005 elections, meaning that they may abandon the LDP if things go badly for the LDP but well for New Komeito.)

The House of Councillors is weaker than the House of Representatives, which chooses the Prime Minister (so the LDP will still govern even if they lose the election). Abe's position as Prime Minister, however, would come into danger from LDP dissidents should they lose the election except that the LDP has no obvious replacement PM to rally behind.

The election is on 29 July.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election%2C_2007

The DPJ is center-left, the LDP is all over the place (due to its historical dominance of the political scene) but probably best described as center-right. New Komeito is conservative Buddhist but centrist otherwise. The minor Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party that are also likely to win a few seats are obviously left-wing, and the breakaway People's New Party, a split from the LDP, is as murky in its ideology, though allied with the DPJ.

[Verily]

Guess no one cares about Japan.

The election was initially scheduled for today, but the government (unpopularly) rescheduled the elections to a week from now to "finish legislative business" (i.e., ram a few bits of their agenda through before losing the election).

Abe's popularity has continued to fall; his latest approval rating was 25%. The DPJ leads the LDP-New Komeito coalition by about 6-8 points in opinion polls.

[Verily]

The DPJ is center-left, the LDP is all over the place (due to its historical dominance of the political scene) but probably best described as center-right. New Komeito is conservative Buddhist but centrist otherwise. The minor Japanese Communist Party and Social Democratic Party that are also likely to win a few seats are obviously left-wing, and the breakaway People's New Party, a split from the LDP, is as murky in its ideology, though allied with the DPJ.

I'm no expert, but I also read/heard descriptions that both the LDP and the DPJ could be better desribed as "center-right to center-left parties"... so that both are neither right nor left (or very different from each other in terms of ideology, for that matter).

I would agree with that. Both the DPJ and LPJ are non-ideological parties. The DPJ is just a coalition of everyone who doesn't like the LPJ and the LPJ is a coalition of everyone who wants to be in power. This makes for what is possibly one of the worst political arrangements in the world.

Sort of, certainly, but there are no factions within the DPJ that could be considered further right than centrist, and no factions within the LDP that could be considered further left than centrist (though historically there were).

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According that same website (2004 seats):

DPJ: 59 (+50) = 109
LDP: 36 (+49) = 85
NKP: 8 (+11) = 19
JCP: 3 (+4) = 7
SDP: 1 (+2) = 3
PNP: 2 (+0) = 2
NPN: 1 (+0) = 1
Others: 0 (+5) = 5
Uncalled: 4

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DPJ: 109
LDP: 83
NKP: 20
JCP: 7
SDP: 5
PNP: 4
NPN: 1
Ind: 13

anti-LDP: 126, could govern without PNP and/or NPN but unlikely to do so
DPJ-NKP: 129, an alternative if the NKP decides that the LDP is a sinking ship

Both totals do not include independents (many of whom are LDP or DPJ in all but name).

Also, vote percentages:

DPJ: 39.5%
LDP: 28.1%
NKP: 13.2%
JCP: 7.5%
SDP: 4.5%
NPN: 3.0%
PNP: 2.2%
Others: 2.1%

That's a record national high for the DPJ and a record low for the LDP.

[Verily]

Sweet!

Abe is refusing to resign too. Good. He may actually end up costing the LDP the lower house too!

That would be a bit much. I can't see the LDP not overthrowing Abe if his unpopularity continues.

[Verily]

I'd say that's a pretty decisive DPJ victory