Al Franken raises $1.9 million

[they don't love you like i love you]

So, what would the base vote be against Al Franken for Norm Coleman, which is to me, quite frankly, just as important of a question.

I can also assume that third-parties are not part of this equation

They usually don't play that big of a role in Senate races. IP votes would probably come mostly from Coleman in this scenario though.

The base vote against Franken probably would be similar, about 45%, which of course is higher than your typical Democrat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Coleman is considering breaking with the president on Iraq, I don't think he would consider doing such if he didn't felt he was in peril.

[opebo]

The Democrat will win due to anti-Republican feeling (and regret over supporting Coleman in the first place), not through any great appeal of his own.

[Sam Spade]

Coleman is considering breaking with the president on Iraq, I don't think he would consider doing such if he didn't felt he was in peril.

Every Republican is considering doing that right now.  Most of it has to do with the simple fact that the Republican base is starting to turn pessimistic on Iraq.

Early in this year, I predicted that Bush would probably have until November or December of 2007 to do something before the situation would become untenable and the troops would be removed from Iraq.

I am now thinking I might have overplayed the call a bit.  The situation will probably become untenable by September 2007 and that is when the switch will occur.  Probably by April of next year, the number of US troops in Iraq will be down to about half what they are now and the WH will be trying to force partition on the Iraqi government.  Meanwhile, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran will naturally be massing forces to try and protect their own interests as the US presence dies down.

[Wiz in Wis]

people need to remember that Minnesota has elected kooky candidates before... need i remind anyone of a certain former governor? 

Plus, this is Paul Wellstone's seat, who would still be in the senate today had he not tragically died. I think those who underestime Franken, (or Ciresi) do so at their own peril.

Coleman isn't toast (Sununu is) but he sure is cooking!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The difference is that Vonovich, Domenici, and Warner voted against the president in years passed, like Campaign finance reform. Smith and Coleman have voted with the president 90% of the time. I think it is more of a calculated move on Smith and Coleman's part on account of their reelection.

[Sam Spade]

people need to remember that Minnesota has elected kooky candidates before... need i remind anyone of a certain former governor? 

Plus, this is Paul Wellstone's seat, who would still be in the senate today had he not tragically died. I think those who underestime Franken, (or Ciresi) do so at their own peril.

Coleman isn't toast (Sununu is) but he sure is cooking!

Well, the big difference b/w Coleman and Sununu presently is that Coleman is presently +20% ahead against Franken and Ciresi (according to M-D/SUSA) and Sununu is presently -20% behind Shaheen (ARG - with the ARG caveat in my book).

Some people may not see this as an important distinction, but I do.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That is against Shaheen who may or may not run, Marchand is the more likely opponent and we haven't seen a poll yet on that race.  I think it is too early yet to tell if Franken will make it a race or not.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

people need to remember that Minnesota has elected kooky candidates before... need i remind anyone of a certain former governor? 

I'm pretty sure Minnesota has learned from that fiasco.

[Wiz in Wis]

people need to remember that Minnesota has elected kooky candidates before... need i remind anyone of a certain former governor? 

I'm pretty sure Minnesota has learned from that fiasco.

My point is that Minnesota has trumped conventional wisdom in the past and likes flamboyant candidates who speak non-politicianese. Franken is not a lock to win, but people who think he can't haven't a firm grasp of political history or the current reality.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Franken might benefit from something that benefited Ventura: people showing up to vote for him who wouldn't have voted normally.

[SPC]

I am not the one denying that Coleman is even vulnerable. Going into 2008, Franken will beat him by at least 2% to a little less than Klobuchar's win. You act as if Franken has no chance, which is completely delusional.

He's certainly not that vulnerable with Franken as his opponent. Coleman would be very vulnerable to someone like Ciresi.

By the way, check yourself into a mental institution as soon as possible if you think Franken will come close to Klobuchar's win with 60% of the vote.

It may be a first, but I think Phil is more right here than the rest of y'all.

Sure, Coleman is not safe.  (I think Phil was obviously using a little hyperbole to show how gleeful he is that Franken is looking more and more like the Dem nominee).

But, please, please, MN dems--do not nominate Al Franken!  If you do, you are smoking stronger stuff than even your nominee would dare try...

Why can't a decent progressive Minnesotan come out of the woodwork and rescue the party?  I personally like state sen. Taryl Clark.

Franken is a top notch candidate. Frankly it doesnt matter what any one says.

HA HA HA HA HA HA.

I agree with BRTD that Franken would get the base vote, but I doubt he could get any more than that, even with the money he has.

My prediction:

COLEMAN 53%
FRANKEN  46%

COLEMAN 51%
CIRESI      47%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As of right now, Coleman has a slight advantage, but I doubt the national republican ticket can carry MN. The lack of campaigning by the top of the ticket will hurt republican turnout in the state and might give MN to the Democrats.

[opebo]

Why does everyone seem to discount Minnesota's anti-Republican mood?  Lets look at 2006 - Ohio might be a special case, but my homestate is far more Republican than Minnesota (and so are Montana and Virginia), and they all elected Democrats.  True, in Missouri's case McGaskill was a fine professional politician, but hardly well liked.  In Virginia's case Webb was just about as much of an outsider as Franken, and of course Tester is far more out of synch with Montana's ideology than is Franken with Minnesota's.   So I don't see how anyone can say that just because of shortcomings in the Democratic candidate that he will fail to capitalize on Minnesota's profound disgust with the GOP.  He's well funded, and reasonably articulate.. all he has to do is avoid being seen as not serious or a joke, and he should eke it out by a couple of points.  Lastly, keep in mind that there is no great personal enthusiasm for Coleman - he may not have such high negatives in polling, but very few have any deep fondness for him in the way one finds with long-sitting Senators in states they don't really fit - like Baucus in Montana or Collins in Maine.

[sethm0]

 I hate to say it, but Franken has no chance.

 It is true that there is significant and growing anti-Republican sentiment in Minnesota, and that Coleman isn't the most talented or popular politician. Against a generic Minnesota Democrat, he'd have real trouble.

 But Franken is not a generic Minnesota Democrat. He has not lived in the state for decades. The people of Minnesota do not feel connected to him in any way. He has years worth of radio show sound-bites that could be used against him in one way or another. His books and radio show make him look like he cares more about making fun of Republicans than being a serious public servant.

 He would not be McCaskill or Webb, both of whom had strong roots in their states. He would not be Hillary Clinton in 2000 who, though carpetbagging, was running for an open seat in a more liberal state. He would just be a celebrity trying to run on his celebrity credentials - sort of like Jerry Springer, except Springer actually had strong roots in Ohio and a record of public service.

 Already Franken's inability to win is being born out - he is down huge in the polls despite decent name-recognition, and embarrassingly little of his fund raising has been raised in-state. Franken is a good man, but would not make a good candidate.

 I really hope Franken will get out so that we can have a good shot of beating that idiot Coleman.

[Conan]

 I hate to say it, but Franken has no chance.

 It is true that there is significant and growing anti-Republican sentiment in Minnesota, and that Coleman isn't the most talented or popular politician. Against a generic Minnesota Democrat, he'd have real trouble.

 But Franken is not a generic Minnesota Democrat. He has not lived in the state for decades. The people of Minnesota do not feel connected to him in any way. He has years worth of radio show sound-bites that could be used against him in one way or another. His books and radio show make him look like he cares more about making fun of Republicans than being a serious public servant.

 He would not be McCaskill or Webb, both of whom had strong roots in their states. He would not be Hillary Clinton in 2000 who, though carpetbagging, was running for an open seat in a more liberal state. He would just be a celebrity trying to run on his celebrity credentials - sort of like Jerry Springer, except Springer actually had strong roots in Ohio and a record of public service.

 Already Franken's inability to win is being born out - he is down huge in the polls despite decent name-recognition, and embarrassingly little of his fund raising has been raised in-state. Franken is a good man, but would not make a good candidate.

 I really hope Franken will get out so that we can have a good shot of beating that idiot Coleman.

He has lived in the state for the past 2 years. His small dollar contributions, an average of 65$ each, come from over 30,000 donors, most of whom are from MN.

[sethm0]

 2 years won't be enough in the eyes of Minnesotans. It's true that he has a large number of small donors in his fund raising report, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that most of these are from within Minnesota. I would imagine that most of those small donations are internet donations from the fans of his radio show, which stretch nationwide.

 Again, I'm not saying I don't like the guy or wish he could win. But from a purely objective point of view, we Democrats need a better candidate in Minnesota.

[Sam Spade]

 2 years won't be enough in the eyes of Minnesotans. It's true that he has a large number of small donors in his fund raising report, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that most of these are from within Minnesota. I would imagine that most of those small donations are internet donations from the fans of his radio show, which stretch nationwide.

 Again, I'm not saying I don't like the guy or wish he could win. But from a purely objective point of view, we Democrats need a better candidate in Minnesota.

82% of Franken's fundraising comes from outside Minnesota.  I think the % was slightly higher in the 1st quarter.