Al Franken raises $1.9 million

[Sam Spade]

Norm Coleman is sure happy to hear this news.

Coleman still has roughly double the CoH that Franken does, but I became convinced Franken would be able to seriously raise money when I saw him "steal" nearly $1.5 million from Air America's dead carcass last year.  I was quite impressed with that haul.

[Sam Spade]

FYI, BRTD's silence on this thread is telling... 

[Sam Spade]

So, what would the base vote be against Al Franken for Norm Coleman, which is to me, quite frankly, just as important of a question.

I can also assume that third-parties are not part of this equation

[Sam Spade]

Coleman is considering breaking with the president on Iraq, I don't think he would consider doing such if he didn't felt he was in peril.

Every Republican is considering doing that right now.  Most of it has to do with the simple fact that the Republican base is starting to turn pessimistic on Iraq.

Early in this year, I predicted that Bush would probably have until November or December of 2007 to do something before the situation would become untenable and the troops would be removed from Iraq.

I am now thinking I might have overplayed the call a bit.  The situation will probably become untenable by September 2007 and that is when the switch will occur.  Probably by April of next year, the number of US troops in Iraq will be down to about half what they are now and the WH will be trying to force partition on the Iraqi government.  Meanwhile, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iran will naturally be massing forces to try and protect their own interests as the US presence dies down.

[Sam Spade]

people need to remember that Minnesota has elected kooky candidates before... need i remind anyone of a certain former governor? 

Plus, this is Paul Wellstone's seat, who would still be in the senate today had he not tragically died. I think those who underestime Franken, (or Ciresi) do so at their own peril.

Coleman isn't toast (Sununu is) but he sure is cooking!

Well, the big difference b/w Coleman and Sununu presently is that Coleman is presently +20% ahead against Franken and Ciresi (according to M-D/SUSA) and Sununu is presently -20% behind Shaheen (ARG - with the ARG caveat in my book).

Some people may not see this as an important distinction, but I do.

[Sam Spade]

 2 years won't be enough in the eyes of Minnesotans. It's true that he has a large number of small donors in his fund raising report, but I haven't seen anything to indicate that most of these are from within Minnesota. I would imagine that most of those small donations are internet donations from the fans of his radio show, which stretch nationwide.

 Again, I'm not saying I don't like the guy or wish he could win. But from a purely objective point of view, we Democrats need a better candidate in Minnesota.

82% of Franken's fundraising comes from outside Minnesota.  I think the % was slightly higher in the 1st quarter.