Can Rick Lazio defeat Steve Israel to win his old seat back NY-02?

[Smash255]

Inspired by Mitty's claim that Lazio could win his old seat back.

Lazio left the house to run for the Senate against Clinton in 2000.  He lost and elected in his place was Democrat Steve Israel.  re districting has made the district more Democratic, it has also trended more Democratic.  Even with Bush's 9/11 bounce the distict went to Kerry by 7.45%, it went to gore in 2000 by 15.82%, between 19-20% under its current lines.

The party makeup of the district
last time Lazio was there March 2000
38.83% GOP, 30.68% Dem, 30.49% Ind/ 3rd

just before redistricting March 02
37.49% GOP. 32.34% Dem, 30.17% Ind, 3rd

Post redistricting Nov 02
35.05% GOP, 34.36% Dem, 30.59% Ind, 3rd

Now
33.15% GOP, 35.91% Dem, 30.94% Ind, 3rd

Last time Lazio was here the district had an 8 point GOP registration advantage, now it has almost 3 point Dem advantage.  Long Island Republicans tend to cross party lines more than Democrats and Independents tend to lean Democrat on LI as well.  Israel was just elected to his 4th term with over 70% of the vote.

So with all this does Lazio have a chance of defeating Israel and regaining his old seat back or is Mitty just made another nutty prediction?

[AndrewTX]

I don't think that Lazio could win his old seat back, but he would make it intersting. I think that Lazio could get 45-48% of the vote, at the most.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The answer to the question is "no". There would presumably be a big swing from 2006 if he runs (is he running?) but not even enough to make it even halfway close, let alone enough to win.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Not against Israel, but if the seat was open the partisan advantage for the Democrats could certainly be overcome

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Rick Lazio should be banned for life from ever holding public office again.

He's the Constitution-hating jerk who wrote the law to force public housing residents to work without pay.

[Smash255]

Not against Israel, but if the seat was open the partisan advantage for the Democrats could certainly be overcome

Well when you look at Long Island its basically the opposite of the south (except it holds true locally as well) in that the south has a larger Republican advantage than the partisan makeup would suggest, Lomg Island has a stronger Democratic advantage than the partisan makeup suggests.  Republicans still hold about a 4-5 point partisan advantage on Long Island, despite the Democrats winning everything.  That advantage of a little under 3 points, is probably a good 10 points higher than that realistically.

[Smash255]

I don't think that Lazio could win his old seat back, but he would make it intersting. I think that Lazio could get 45-48% of the vote, at the most.

He wouldn't be able to touch 40

[poughies]

no.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Remember that we are talking about a WalterMitty prediction. He's the forum's Dick Morris.

[Nym90]

I don't know about destroyed, but I don't see him winning. He'd probably get 40-45 percent.

[WalterMitty]

Remember that we are talking about a WalterMitty prediction. He's the forum's Dick Morris.

i think you all need to go re-read my comments on lazio.

afterwards, go get a dictionary and look up the word 'facetious'

[© tweed]

he wouldn't break 40%

[Eraserhead]

God no.