Quinnipiac Poll: Lautenberg too old; beats generic GOP candidate 40–33%

[Keystone Phil]

Unless Mike Doherty becomes the nominee (and I seriously doubt someone that conservative could win the GOP nomination in New Jersey), it doesn't seem likely that Lautenberg will win with a margin unlike his past races.

Why wouldn't Doherty become the nominee? The NJ GOP has given up on this race and rightfully so. Nobody cares who the nominee is.

[Verily]

This surprises no one.  Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat will always produce 45-48 percent for the Republican and 50-55 percent for the Democrat, in fact it works with any person.

Funny, then, that generic Republican led generic Democrat in 2002, then the two were about even in 2004, and generic Democrat led generic Republican in 2006. Lying to make your party look good generally isn't a good idea. If generic Democrat currently leads generic Republican, it's because, surprise, surprise, the country actually prefers the Democrats right now.

I was talking about general election results rather than polls, which then I think you will agree my statement holds true.

Err... no, not in general elections, either, which is exactly what I was referring to. Currently, perhaps, but not as a "general rule" somehow applicable to anything more than the current political environment.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Franks more of a suprise than usual, however, I think 2002 can be explained due to "unforeseen circumstances"

Ridiculous.  Torricelli was on very unstable ground going into 2001 as his ethics woes started surfacing, but a post 9/11 bounce kept the credible challengers out of the way.  I did not see 2000 as a strong possibility for a GOP pick up, and I don't see 2008 a strong possibility for a GOP pick-up, but for the life of me, I couldn't understand why I was the only person in the state of New Jersey to think Bob Torricelli vulnerable in the slightest.

Why wouldn't Doherty become the nominee? The NJ GOP has given up on this race and rightfully so. Nobody cares who the nominee is.

Simply because I think Pennachio would be able to win over more primary voters with his more main stream conservatism.  The NJ GOP as a whole isn't that conservative: I believe its still majority pro-choice.