Senate Prediction 2008

[Wiz from Wis in Mass]

A new thread to post predictions on the state of the Senate. How will it look in January 2009?

My Prediction:



Final Results, D 55, R 43, I 2:

D Pickups - (in order of largest to smallest margin

New Hampshire (55-45 Shaheen)
Colorado (53-47 Udall)
Virginia    (53-47 M Warner)
Maine      (51-49 Allen)
Oregon    (50-49 D)
Minnesota (49-48 Franken)

Other Close Races:

Landrieu 51-49
Johnson 52-48
Cornyn 52-48
Lautenberg 55-45
McConnell 55-45

[Former Moderate]

[DownWithTheLeft]

Marquee Races:
CO: Schaffer def. Udall 50-49
IO: Harkin def. King 51-48
LA: Kennedy def. Landrieu 53-47*
ME: Collins def. Allen 49-45
MT: Racicot def. Baucus 50.1-49.9
NE: Bruening def. Fahey 53-46
NH: Sweet def. Sununu 51-48*
OR: Smith def. Westlund 50-48
SD: Rounds def. Daschle 49-48*
VA: Davis def. Moran 51-48

Competitive Races:
AK: Stevens def. Eric Berkowitz 55-40
MN: Coleman def. Franken 52-42
NJ: Lautenberg def. Kean Jr. 54-45



Dark= pickup
Medium= hold
Light= slight hold

[Kevin]

Marquee Races:
CO: Schaffer def. Udall 50-49
IO: Harkin def. King 51-48
LA: Kennedy def. Landrieu 53-47*
ME: Collins def. Allen 49-45
MT: Racicot def. Baucus 50.1-49.9
NE: Bruening def. Fahey 53-46
NH: Sweet def. Sununu 51-48*
OR: Smith def. Westlund 50-48
SD: Rounds def. Daschle 49-48*
VA: Davis def. Moran 51-48

Competitive Races:
AK: Stevens def. Eric Berkowitz 55-40
MN: Coleman def. Franken 52-42
NJ: Lautenberg def. Kean Jr. 54-45



Dark= pickup
Medium= hold
Light= slight hold

With Virginia,Jim Moran if that's who your applying is not going to win the Democratic nomenation as nominating a anti-semitic,corrupt,alcoholic,foul mouthed,wife beater would be political suicide in Virginia or anywhere for that matter.

[Keystone Phil]

Marquee Races:
CO: Schaffer def. Udall 50-49
IO: Harkin def. King 51-48
LA: Kennedy def. Landrieu 53-47*
ME: Collins def. Allen 49-45
MT: Racicot def. Baucus 50.1-49.9
NE: Bruening def. Fahey 53-46
NH: Sweet def. Sununu 51-48*
OR: Smith def. Westlund 50-48
SD: Rounds def. Daschle 49-48*
VA: Davis def. Moran 51-48

Competitive Races:
AK: Stevens def. Eric Berkowitz 55-40
MN: Coleman def. Franken 52-42
NJ: Lautenberg def. Kean Jr. 54-45



Dark= pickup
Medium= hold
Light= slight hold

Baucus would not lose. I like the idea of the SD race. I thought of a scenario that involved a Daschle comeback, too. I think it's very possible if Johnson decides against running (I am not convinced that he is totally in favor of running again).

We're not getting Kean, Jr. to run again in NJ.

[Padfoot]

80% - safe
50% - leans
30% - tossup w/ slight adv.

[Aizen]

Dems get a net gain of 4. Of course, it's still early and anything can happen between now and then.

[OC]

[opebo]

How are you fellows making those maps?  I tried to use 'election info' link but there is no gray on there.. just red, blue, and green.

[Tender Branson]

How are you fellows making those maps?  I tried to use 'election info' link but there is no gray on there.. just red, blue, and green.

Just click on the "quote" button of the post with a map in it, then the map code appears, change the code to how you like it and remove the quotation signs.

[opebo]

How are you fellows making those maps?  I tried to use 'election info' link but there is no gray on there.. just red, blue, and green.

Just click on the "quote" button of the post with a map in it, then the map code appears, change the code to how you like it and remove the quotation signs.

Haha, very funny.  I am not one of you computer repairman types.  'Code' my eye!

Anyway, my prediction is this:

Democrat gains - New Hampshire, Colorado, and Minnesota in order of probability.

Republican gains - none, as Landrieu will squeek by in Louisiana.

So Dem +3.   

[Tender Branson]

How are you fellows making those maps?  I tried to use 'election info' link but there is no gray on there.. just red, blue, and green.

Just click on the "quote" button of the post with a map in it, then the map code appears, change the code to how you like it and remove the quotation signs.

Haha, very funny.  I am not one of you computer repairman types.  'Code' my eye!

Nana. Really. It´s very easy. For example Quincy's map: click on quote, then this code comes:

img width=506 height=313]http://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=0&pv_p=1&ev_p=0&type=calc&AL=2;9;8&AK=2;3;8&AZ=0;10;5&AR=1

etc. etc.

for example AZ

if you want to change AZ to Republican write AZ=2;10;5 instead of AZ=0;10;5

The first number always is the party 0=Grey, 1=DEM, 2=GOP, 3=Green

The second number is the number of EVs.

The 3rd is the winning percentage. For example 5 means 50% or more.

Have a nice time creating your maps

Ah yeah, and remove Quincies quotation marks after you created your map.

[opebo]

Thanks Tender, but that is a ridiculous amount of work, don't you think?

[Tender Branson]

Thanks Tender, but that is a ridiculous amount of work, don't you think?

Not at all. Takes only 1 or 2 minutes. And you don´t have to change all states as most of them are already grey and others are non-competetive. For example you don´t have to change IL as it will be Democratic next year. You only have to change about 5-10 states. (CO, MN; OR ...)

If you play with percentages too, then it takes longer.

[Tender Branson]

As for my prediction:

D+2 (CO, NH)

MN, VA and ME may become competetive later on.

[Downwinder]

7/16/07
D+4

[Keystone Phil]

7/16/07
D+4

They have a strong pickup in Nebraska? Even if they do get Kerrey to run, I doubt it would be a bigger win then their win in NH.

[SPC]

D +2:

[Mr.Phips]

D +2:

Looks about right, but I would probably have Landrieu winning narrowly at this point.

[InsaneTrollLogic]

Yeah. I agree with that map, too.

[OC]

As I understand it, Warner's approvals are at 62%. I don't think that spells election defeat. Although it may or maynot help out Davis. That is pretty good for your party in reelection sense. I don't see as of yet VA as a top tier opportunity for the Dems, it probably will be later, but it is a 2nd tier pickup opportunity.

[Verily]

As I understand it, Warner's approvals are at 62%. I don't think that spells election defeat. Although it may or maynot help out Davis. That is pretty good for your party in reelection sense. I don't see as of yet VA as a top tier opportunity for the Dems, it probably will be later, but it is a 2nd tier pickup opportunity.

Warner's approval ratings will have absolutely no effect on the race whatsoever since it has become clear that Warner has no intention of running again.

[OC]

But the president election will have an effect and if the Democrats don't come close enough in the presidential election, the Dems won't win.

[SPC]

As I understand it, Warner's approvals are at 62%. I don't think that spells election defeat. Although it may or maynot help out Davis. That is pretty good for your party in reelection sense. I don't see as of yet VA as a top tier opportunity for the Dems, it probably will be later, but it is a 2nd tier pickup opportunity.

Yes, but Warner is almost certainly not running for reelection, and the likely Democratic challenger is Mark Warner, with a 70% approval rating.

[OC]

He was trailing Allen by 4 pts that's why he didn't run in 2006. Mark Warner will be a tough challenger, but it won't be that easy. And voters look at the top of the ticket, if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, her liberal voting record will have an effect on the race. Just like John Kerry's did on the senate candidates as well.

I am not assuming the Dems will win this race until there is a poll released. Evidently, if Warner was doing so well the DNC would of released an internal poll by now.