Senate Prediction 2008 (user search)
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Author Topic: Senate Prediction 2008  (Read 7799 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« on: July 13, 2007, 06:24:58 AM »
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2007, 09:26:40 AM »
« Edited: July 17, 2007, 10:31:22 AM by Quincy »
As I understand it, Warner's approvals are at 62%. I don't think that spells election defeat. Although it may or maynot help out Davis. That is pretty good for your party in reelection sense. I don't see as of yet VA as a top tier opportunity for the Dems, it probably will be later, but it is a 2nd tier pickup opportunity.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2007, 10:42:53 AM »
But the president election will have an effect and if the Democrats don't come close enough in the presidential election, the Dems won't win.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2007, 11:07:08 AM »
« Edited: July 17, 2007, 11:08:46 AM by Quincy »
He was trailing Allen by 4 pts that's why he didn't run in 2006. Mark Warner will be a tough challenger, but it won't be that easy. And voters look at the top of the ticket, if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, her liberal voting record will have an effect on the race. Just like John Kerry's did on the senate candidates as well.

I am not assuming the Dems will win this race until there is a poll released. Evidently, if Warner was doing so well the DNC would of released an internal poll by now.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,722
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17
« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2007, 09:59:44 AM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on July 17, 2007, 01:51:44 PM
Quote from: Quincy on July 17, 2007, 11:07:08 AM
He was trailing Allen by 4 pts that's why he didn't run in 2006. Mark Warner will be a tough challenger, but it won't be that easy. And voters look at the top of the ticket, if Hillary Clinton is the nominee, her liberal voting record will have an effect on the race. Just like John Kerry's did on the senate candidates as well.


Thats not always the case.  John Kerry hurt Dems in open seats that they were defending in deep South states that Kerry lost by at least 15 points save for Florida.  Every Democratic Senate incumbent was reelected in 2004 except for Tom Daschle.  Ken Salazar was able to win an open seat in Colorado even as Kerry was losing the state by three points.  Virginia would likely be similar if Mark Warner ran.

The difference is that Kerry lost CO by 4 pts and Bush carried VA by 9 pts.

I agree that Mark Warner is much more likely an executive not a senator.
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