Louisiana Senate 2008: Special Election if Vitter resigns?

[Adlai Stevenson]

The first prominent local Louisiana Republican to call for Vitter's resignation has spoken up:

    On Tuesday, Louisiana Republican State Central Committeeman Vincent Bruno called on Vitter to resign "for his own good, the good of the party and the good of his family." ...

    Should Vitter remain in office, says the Republican state committeeman, then: "We're the party of hypocrites: 'Vote for us and we'll lie to you, we'll engage prostitutes and we'll cheat on our wives.'"

Could this become like the the Trent Lott incident at Strom Thurmond's 100th birthday celebrations?  The scandal slowly builds until a few days after the event Vitter is forced to step down?  If Republicans have begun calling for his resignation then it could easily happen.  If it does, Kathleen Blanco will appoint a Democrat to the Senate who will either wait until the 2010 general election for Vitter's seat or face the voters in 2008.  Does anyone want to offer predictions on whether Vitter will resign, who Blanco will appoint and when the election for the seat will take place?  Also, will it have an impact (if any) on Landrieu's race for re-election? 

[Conan]

I think Vitter will resign. While I wouldnt expect him to if he had just had an affair, he used prostitutes, on numerous occasions, as he is leading us to believe. The senate would kick him out but there is probably more of them in the same situation.

[Aizen]

I don't know how much this Vitter fiasco will help Landrieu but it certainly can't hurt her.

[TheresNoMoney]

I highly, highly doubt that Vitter will resign.

[Smash255]

I highly, highly doubt that Vitter will resign.

Depends on how ugly this gets and how deep it goes, but barring anything else I doubt he resigns and if he does resign it won't be till Jindl takes office.

[Rococo4]

I highly, highly doubt that Vitter will resign.

Depends on how ugly this gets and how deep it goes, but barring anything else I doubt he resigns and if he does resign it won't be till Jindl takes office.

Agreed......if he does it wont be until JIndal wins.

I would think Landrieu would not want him to resign and face a special senate election in 2008 at the same time as her race.......i think both races at once would boost turnout in a already presidential, partisan year and hurt her chances to win.

[jimrtex]

If it does, Kathleen Blanco will appoint a Democrat to the Senate who will either wait until the 2010 general election for Vitter's seat or face the voters in 2008.  Does anyone want to offer predictions on whether Vitter will resign, who Blanco will appoint and when the election for the seat will take place?  Also, will it have an impact (if any) on Landrieu's race for re-election? 

There is a special election, unless less than a year remains on the term.  The earliest date for a special election is in October/November 2007, but there are some minimum waiting periods that could push it to February 2008.

[Adlai Stevenson]

The Shreveport Times: Republicans are pondering their next move over Vitter scandal

July 12, 2007

By John Hill
jhillbr@gannett.com

BATON ROUGE -- Some top Louisiana Republicans are discussing whether to ask U.S. Sen. David Vitter to resign and packaging a deal with Democratic Gov. Kathleen Blanco to appoint a place-holding Republican to take his spot.

Speculation has centered around former Gov. David Treen, a Republican defeated by Vitter in the 1999 congressional race. Treen met with his brother, John Treen, of Metairie, a member of the Republican State Central Committee, in Metairie to discuss the issue Wednesday.

Treen, who served in Congress from 1973 until he was elected governor in 1979, later said he's not calling for Vitter to resign. "That's not going to happen. Would I like to serve again in Congress? Yes. I have no further comment."

Christopher Tidmore, the Metairie Republican candidate for the state Legislature who first wrote about Vitter's involvement with New Orleans prostitutes five years ago in Louisiana Weekly, said discussions are under way.

"There are some senior Republicans who are seriously discussing the matter. Currently, however, the leadership of the Republican Party has not made a comment on it, nor given any encouragement or discouragement to the effort.

"There are a lot of people talking about this."

Louisiana Republican Party Chairman Roger Villere said he's been unable to talk with Vitter, who has remained in seclusion since the scandal broke Monday night.

But Villere said he doubts Vitter would quit. "I can't see a scenario where Vitter is going to resign. I just don't see that. I don't see how you could package a deal (with Blanco). What kind of deal could you make that you know would be honored?"

But Villere acknowledged that GOP leaders are discussing the Vitter resignation/Treen appointment concept. "I have heard that talk."

However, no one was talking with Blanco about the possibility, the governor said Wednesday night. "It is premature," she said. "We have to wait to see what Sen. Vitter is actually planning to do."

Some Republicans have approached Blanco, but the governor was locked in meetings over possible vetoes and could not be reached for comment.

Among many Republicans, there is fear that the sex scandal surrounding Vitter could interfere with the party's plans to take over the Louisiana House of Representatives in the fall elections, Tidmore said.

Republican State Central Committee member Mike Bayham of Chalmette said he's heard plenty of talk about Treen being a replacement should Vitter resign.

"I think Gov. Treen would be an outstanding replacement. He knows the ropes. He was an effective congressman and could hit the ground running. If Sen. Vitter decides to step down, I think Dave Treen would be a natural choice."

But the GOP would remain behind Vitter if he opts not to resign.

"This is a problem for Louisiana as well as David Vitter personally," Bayham said. "I think the party would stay behind Vitter if he decides to stay, just as Democrats stood behind President Clinton."

If Vitter resigns, it would be submitted to Vice President Dick Cheney as the presiding officer of the U.S. Senate, who would have to officially notify the governor. Within 10 days of receiving the notification, Blanco would have to appoint an interim senator and call a special election to fill the remaining three years in Vitter's term, which is up in 2010, said state Elections Commissioner Angie LaPlace.

The Louisiana secretary of state's elections division was researching a new state law Wednesday that calls for a return to party primaries in congressional elections. A quick read of the law indicates the first possible dates would probably be in the spring.

Pollster Verne Kennedy, of Pensacola, Fla., who has extensively polled Louisiana on behalf of GOP gubernatorial candidate John Georges of New Orleans, said the Vitter sex scandal "certainly opens up Vitter to a good potential of losing an upcoming re-election if he doesn't resign.

"Before this, no one would have even thought of running against Vitter," he said. "From what I know now, if someone came to me now, even a Republican, I'd say keep your powder dry to see where this goes, but take a look at it."

Vitter's effectiveness in the Louisiana gubernatorial election, scheduled Oct. 20, is vastly diminished, Kennedy said. He will be of less value to Republican GOP candidate Bobby Jindal. "Jindal's campaign will have to reassess its relationship with Vitter, which could reduce Vitter's role and even remove Vitter as a visible key supporter."

Republican media consultant Roy Fletcher, who is running the Louisiana Republican Party's advertising campaign on behalf of Jindal, said the potential of Vitter not being around "opens a new door in this governor's race." But there's no direct impact "as there is not a single allegation that Bobby Jindal is involved in any way," Fletcher said.

"I don't think Vitter will last a week."

Jindal, who has avoided comment on the Vitter matter, has announced a statewide tour next week to formally kick off his campaign for governor.

Gubernatorial candidate and Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell, of Bossier Parish, said he's uncertain about the impact on the gubernatorial race.

Vitter "was going to be their point guy, but he can't be out there preaching now," Campbell said.

"That's the problem with these self-righteous politicians. When they start acting like preachers, they are treading on real dangerous grounds," Campbell said.

http://www.shreveporttimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070712/NEWS01/707120336/1060/NEWS01

[Sam Spade]

Interesting.  My guess is still that the LA GOP won't get him to resign unless Blanco agrees to appoint a Republican in his place, b/c I really can't see this scandal overcoming the huge problems the Dems in LA have right now in general.  Especially against Jindal.

I would also like to see a poll a few weeks after the thing settles down.  That should tell us exactly where things lie - I'm generally a big believer in getting a feel for things after excitement has passed - polls before then tend to be a little slanted (one side excited, other depressed).

I also don't really see where there's any prosecutable crime here unless hard evidence exists of solitication of prostitution or the video of prostitution in and of itself (or some type of conspiracy - even more doubtful).  This talk about criminal prosecution seems hollow to me.  There also may be a statute of limitations problems on prosecution.

[Ben.]

Don't see why Vitter will resign... if he does, then Blanco should probably appoint Kennedy as his democrat replacement, that way theres one less credible candidate to challenge Landrieu Failing that what's Chris John up to these days? Either way I doubt Vitter will resign unless the pressure on him becomes a whole lot more intense.     

[Conan]

They have a lot of balls thinking they can control who Blanco appoints.

[Sam Spade]

They have a lot of balls thinking they can control who Blanco appoints.

Well, does it look like to you that Blanco's gonna win re-election?  The Democratic situation in Louisiana right now is kind of a 180 reverse from the Democratic situation nationwide presently, if that makes any sense.

[HardRCafé]

The sensible solution is for Vitter to resign and Haik Terrell to replace him, but I doubt that will happen.

[Conan]

They have a lot of balls thinking they can control who Blanco appoints.

Well, does it look like to you that Blanco's gonna win re-election?  The Democratic situation in Louisiana right now is kind of a 180 reverse from the Democratic situation nationwide presently, if that makes any sense.

It doesn't matter if she looks like she's going to win reelection. If your point is, is that it will earn her some votes to appoint a republican, I don't think that would happen.

[Sam Spade]

They have a lot of balls thinking they can control who Blanco appoints.

Well, does it look like to you that Blanco's gonna win re-election?  The Democratic situation in Louisiana right now is kind of a 180 reverse from the Democratic situation nationwide presently, if that makes any sense.

It doesn't matter if she looks like she's going to win reelection. If your point is, is that it will earn her some votes to appoint a republican, I don't think that would happen.

I understand what you're saying, but since Blanco's main mission right now seems to be to secure funding for Louisiana and NO, if the GOP puts in a Senator who promises to get her the funding (since Vitter seems to be MIA right now), she might accept.  The Dems chances of winning the Governorship in 2007 are low, frankly, IMHO.

[agcatter]

Vitter resigns.  Republicans then trust Blanco to honor a pledge to appoint a Republican?  I can see Dems making the pledge to get Vitter to resign.  Can I see Dems actually honoring their pledge once Vitter is gone?  Absolutely not.

[Conan]

They have a lot of balls thinking they can control who Blanco appoints.

Well, does it look like to you that Blanco's gonna win re-election?  The Democratic situation in Louisiana right now is kind of a 180 reverse from the Democratic situation nationwide presently, if that makes any sense.

It doesn't matter if she looks like she's going to win reelection. If your point is, is that it will earn her some votes to appoint a republican, I don't think that would happen.

I understand what you're saying, but since Blanco's main mission right now seems to be to secure funding for Louisiana and NO, if the GOP puts in a Senator who promises to get her the funding (since Vitter seems to be MIA right now), she might accept.  The Dems chances of winning the Governorship in 2007 are low, frankly, IMHO.

And if her mission is to get funding for recovery, then why appoint someone who would be in the minority? Someone from the majority party would be a lot more effective.

[7,052,770]

Blanco should appoint herself.  Presumably that would make Mitch Landrieu the governor, and he could run for governor in '07 as a semiincumbent, and have a bit of a record to run on.

[Cubby]

Blanco should appoint herself.  Presumably that would make Mitch Landrieu the governor, and he could run for governor in '07 as a semiincumbent, and have a bit of a record to run on.

I love that idea! But would Blanco get a lot of flak for appointing herself? I can't remember that being done before.

I like Mitch Landrieu. I really wanted him to become Mayor of New Orleans last year.

[SPC]

Blanco should appoint herself.  Presumably that would make Mitch Landrieu the governor, and he could run for governor in '07 as a semiincumbent, and have a bit of a record to run on.

Is that even legal?

[HardRCafé]

First, there has to be a vacancy.  Second, that went over real well for Gov. Anderson.

[socaldem]

I think Vitter is going to have to resign.  This matter has become a full-fledged media circus and his going into hiding hasn't done anything for damage control.  I fully expect some of the actual women to come out of the woodwork fairly soon... 

The only way for Vitter to take the air out of the story is to resign...

If the resignation comes within a month or so, would a special senate election be held in '07 or '08?

I imagine it would be good news for Landrieu because her potential opponents would be tempted by the other seat.

BTW, what is the record number of senate seats elected at one time?  If the special needs to be held in'08, we are up to 35 or 36 senate elections in '08...

And I wouldn't be so sure that Jindal has a lock on the guv seat...  With three other credible candidates--Foster Campbell, Walter Boasso, and GOP businessman John Georges--I don't see how Jindal gets more than 50% of the initial tally.  Boasso has been blanketing the state with television ads and Georges is also loaded.  Once Jindal is tarnished by attacks from this troika of challengers, he may be hard-pressed to win a run-off.

Meanwhile, with the Vitter fallout, Jindal loses his biggest advocate and anti-D.C. innuendo may have even more saliance even if Jindal is squeaky clean in regards to Vitter-style business arrangements.

The only plus for Jindal from this is if former Governor Dave Treen decided not to run for governor because of the possiblility of getting a senate seat.

[rbt48]

My understanding is that in most states, for a governor to appoint him/herself to a senate vacancy, it can't be done directly, since you can't hold both offices at once.  The Gov and Lt Gov sign an agreement that the governor will resign and the lt governor will appoint the governor to the vacant senate seat immediately. 

One such instance was in Oklahoma in Jan 1963.  Senator Robert Kerr had died on Jan 1 and the governor, James Howard Edmondson resigned on Jan 6, 1963 and was appointed to the Senate.  I believe he went on to lose to Dewey Bartlett in the 1966 race for a full 6 year term.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Blanco should appoint herself.  Presumably that would make Mitch Landrieu the governor, and he could run for governor in '07 as a semiincumbent, and have a bit of a record to run on.

I love that idea! But would Blanco get a lot of flak for appointing herself? I can't remember that being done before.

I like Mitch Landrieu. I really wanted him to become Mayor of New Orleans last year.

It's been done before in a number of instances, and the end result is almost uniformly the same: the public voting out each and every one of the merry-go-round politicians.  Democrats were absolutely obliterated in 1978 Minnesota following such a move, and the move was very clearly the reason.

And I wouldn't be so sure that Jindal has a lock on the guv seat...  With three other credible candidates--Foster Campbell, Walter Boasso, and GOP businessman John Georges--I don't see how Jindal gets more than 50% of the initial tally.  Boasso has been blanketing the state with television ads and Georges is also loaded.  Once Jindal is tarnished by attacks from this troika of challengers, he may be hard-pressed to win a run-off.

If you're having trouble seeing how Jindal wins, methinks you need a stronger prescription for your glasses.  His challengers are by-and-large jokes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think a special election would help Landrieu, as all serious challengers would go for that seat.