when will the republicans win another presidential election?

[MODU]

If you really want to fix these problems - it all starts with election and campaign finance reform. These are things that most Republicans hate and quite a few Democrats do not like as well. People can argue that spending money equals free speech till they are blue in the face, but what they are actually doing is defending the status quo of our broken political system.

I agree.  But the two dinosaur parties have done all they can to limit the abilities of the individuals and third-parties from breaking down those barriers.  If neither party wants to solve issues, they have no need to change the status quo.

[The Duke]

2012

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If you really want to fix these problems - it all starts with election and campaign finance reform. These are things that most Republicans hate and quite a few Democrats do not like as well. People can argue that spending money equals free speech till they are blue in the face, but what they are actually doing is defending the status quo of our broken political system.

I agree.  But the two dinosaur parties have done all they can to limit the abilities of the individuals and third-parties from breaking down those barriers.  If neither party wants to solve issues, they have no need to change the status quo.

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

[MODU]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

[WalterMitty]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

modu, maybe this isnt a fair question, but im curious...why arent you a republican?  do you disagree with the republican party on anything?

[© tweed]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

the winner-take-all system forces people into massive camps.  a third party or third parties could never thrive under the current electoral system, regardless of how easy it is to get on the ballot.

[Colin]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

the winner-take-all system forces people into massive camps.  a third party or third parties could never thrive under the current electoral system, regardless of how easy it is to get on the ballot.

Yes it's called Duverger's Law and has been proven throughout most political contexts. The FPTP system leads to two dominant parties that are the only ones that can win elections. In a majority of circumstances it leads to a direct two party system in the minority, usually Westminster-style parliamentary democracies, it leads to what is known as the two and a half party system were "third parties" exist but their ability to actually win the election is very close to zero.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

What type of barriers are you referring to? Plenty of states have easy ballot access laws. I really doubt you support completely publicly-funded campaigns or anything.

While other such things are probably needed to open up the situation for third parties, FPTP is the biggest obstacle. You won't get a multi-party system under FPTP, period. Getting rid of it may only be the first step, but it's a needed step.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

BTW, despite what MODU says, under a switch to pure PR the Democrats almost certainly would completely break up after a few cycles (the party might remain under some informal alliance of parties but not as a true political party) and the Republicans would be reduced to a much smaller party.

[MODU]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

modu, maybe this isnt a fair question, but im curious...why arent you a republican?  do you disagree with the republican party on anything?

The same question could be asked of you, Walter?  Why aren't you a Democrat?  I've answered this numerous times in the past.  I jumped out of supporting the Republican party decades ago, remained independent up till the early days of the Reform movement, and then went back to independent.  I am conservative by nature, so I will more times than not share similar views as those of the Republican party, but I do have my differences on issues, especially when the two dinosaur parties have grown closer together with their party-first mentality.

[WalterMitty]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

modu, maybe this isnt a fair question, but im curious...why arent you a republican?  do you disagree with the republican party on anything?

The same question could be asked of you, Walter?  Why aren't you a Democrat?  I've answered this numerous times in the past.  I jumped out of supporting the Republican party decades ago, remained independent up till the early days of the Reform movement, and then went back to independent.  I am conservative by nature, so I will more times than not share similar views as those of the Republican party, but I do have my differences on issues, especially when the two dinosaur parties have grown closer together with their party-first mentality.

modu, im basically an independent.  i certainly vote a very split ticket.

i just happen to still be registered a republican.  and ill likely remain a republican.  im hopeful that the party will rebuild itself into something a little more secular and a little less mean-spirited.

[Person Man]

Although, I predict that about half of the states will still continue to follow Roe, even if it was overturned.

They wouldn't be in abortion clinics as those could be forcibly closed making most people not get any. So the people who are desperate to kill can possibly die themselves in back alleys.

Although you would think that states that still would use Roe wouldn't do that and those who lived in conservative states would either move out  if they couldn't come back (you can't extradite someone who hasn't committed a crime) or just take a bus to get one. In moderate states, where abortions are legal, but restricted, they would probably be in ambulances or boats and in liberal states, in hospitials. Although, it would be interesting if a new crime war similar to the Prohibition crime war, erupted if there was a federal "War on Abortion".

[Person Man]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

modu, maybe this isnt a fair question, but im curious...why arent you a republican?  do you disagree with the republican party on anything?

The same question could be asked of you, Walter?  Why aren't you a Democrat?  I've answered this numerous times in the past.  I jumped out of supporting the Republican party decades ago, remained independent up till the early days of the Reform movement, and then went back to independent.  I am conservative by nature, so I will more times than not share similar views as those of the Republican party, but I do have my differences on issues, especially when the two dinosaur parties have grown closer together with their party-first mentality.

modu, im basically an independent.  i certainly vote a very split ticket.

i just happen to still be registered a republican.  and ill likely remain a republican.  im hopeful that the party will rebuild itself into something a little more secular and a little less mean-spirited.

Heck, i'll bet you even have the pleasantries and grace of a traditional republican. You probably are tolerant yet traditional yourself, drive a traditional large sedan, Like the Ford Five Hundred, enjoy golf and generally live in the suburbs...or at least your parents do....and unlike most neocon GOPers, still have all of your teeth.

Personally, I think that if the dems do not win in 2008, they will be out of congress by 2012 and will not return to either congress or the presidency until 2024, barring a major disaster like the depression on what happened in The Sum of All Fears or Day After Tommorow....then again, I bet that it would be a major disaster like that that will be the cause of the realignment in the 2020s period.

If the dems win and mess up, the GOP will sweep in 2012 and the second half the former scenario will be true.

If the dems win and don't mess up, we will have another GOPer by 2016, at the earliest and 2024, at the latest. 

[WalterMitty]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

modu, maybe this isnt a fair question, but im curious...why arent you a republican?  do you disagree with the republican party on anything?

The same question could be asked of you, Walter?  Why aren't you a Democrat?  I've answered this numerous times in the past.  I jumped out of supporting the Republican party decades ago, remained independent up till the early days of the Reform movement, and then went back to independent.  I am conservative by nature, so I will more times than not share similar views as those of the Republican party, but I do have my differences on issues, especially when the two dinosaur parties have grown closer together with their party-first mentality.

modu, im basically an independent.  i certainly vote a very split ticket.

i just happen to still be registered a republican.  and ill likely remain a republican.  im hopeful that the party will rebuild itself into something a little more secular and a little less mean-spirited.

Heck, i'll bet you even have the pleasantries and grace of a traditional republican. You probably drive a traditional large sedan, enjoy golf and generally live in the suburbs.

hhaha.  wrong!

i live in a very urban area.  i drive a small, economy class car.  and ive never played golf!

[Person Man]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

modu, maybe this isnt a fair question, but im curious...why arent you a republican?  do you disagree with the republican party on anything?

The same question could be asked of you, Walter?  Why aren't you a Democrat?  I've answered this numerous times in the past.  I jumped out of supporting the Republican party decades ago, remained independent up till the early days of the Reform movement, and then went back to independent.  I am conservative by nature, so I will more times than not share similar views as those of the Republican party, but I do have my differences on issues, especially when the two dinosaur parties have grown closer together with their party-first mentality.

modu, im basically an independent.  i certainly vote a very split ticket.

i just happen to still be registered a republican.  and ill likely remain a republican.  im hopeful that the party will rebuild itself into something a little more secular and a little less mean-spirited.

Heck, i'll bet you even have the pleasantries and grace of a traditional republican. You probably drive a traditional large sedan, enjoy golf and generally live in the suburbs.

hhaha.  wrong!

i live in a very urban area.  i drive a small, economy class car.  and ive never played golf!

Gee. You would be what my Guiliani-esque Republican father-in-law calls a "vegan republican". Well that's what he called my wife when she tried to be a republican so she could attend the only political group at the Central Wyoming College, which is basically all republican, with exceptinons you could probably count on your body. At that college, almost everyone believed that meat-eating animals larger than man should be hunted to extinction and that women who were promiscous could not be ever considered raped.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Want third parties to get in? Then change the FPTP system you love so much.

No, we just need to remove the barriers put in place in allowing ballot access.  Switching away from FPTP without changing ballot access still leaves the third-parties severely disadvantaged by the two dominanting parties.

modu, maybe this isnt a fair question, but im curious...why arent you a republican?  do you disagree with the republican party on anything?

The same question could be asked of you, Walter?  Why aren't you a Democrat?  I've answered this numerous times in the past.  I jumped out of supporting the Republican party decades ago, remained independent up till the early days of the Reform movement, and then went back to independent.  I am conservative by nature, so I will more times than not share similar views as those of the Republican party, but I do have my differences on issues, especially when the two dinosaur parties have grown closer together with their party-first mentality.

modu, im basically an independent.  i certainly vote a very split ticket.

i just happen to still be registered a republican.  and ill likely remain a republican.  im hopeful that the party will rebuild itself into something a little more secular and a little less mean-spirited.

Heck, i'll bet you even have the pleasantries and grace of a traditional republican. You probably drive a traditional large sedan, enjoy golf and generally live in the suburbs.

hhaha.  wrong!

i live in a very urban area.  i drive a small, economy class car.  and ive never played golf!

I thought you lived in lily-white Boston suburbia.