when will the republicans win another presidential election?
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  when will the republicans win another presidential election?
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Author Topic: when will the republicans win another presidential election?  (Read 9886 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: July 12, 2007, 08:06:06 PM »

probably 2016 at the earliest.

the gop of today is much like the democrat party of the 80s....out of touch and not trusted by the majority of americans.

the republicans need to lose a few elections and rebuild the party...like the democrats did in 1992.
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Wakie
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« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2007, 08:12:13 PM »

I agree with WalterMitty.  Unless a Democratic President REALLY screws up, the Dems will have the White House until 2016 or 2020.  Get ready for 8 years of President Hillary.  And Republicans, you did it to yourselves.
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Kevin
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« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2007, 08:14:21 PM »

I agree with WalterMitty.  Unless a Democratic President REALLY screws up, the Dems will have the White House until 2016 or 2020.  Get ready for 8 years of President Hillary.  And Republicans, you did it to yourselves.

The Democrats you have to keep in mind have a nasty habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2007, 08:25:44 PM »

I agree with WalterMitty.  Unless a Democratic President REALLY screws up, the Dems will have the White House until 2016 or 2020.  Get ready for 8 years of President Hillary.  And Republicans, you did it to yourselves.

I wouldn't be suprised if one of the parties were totally shot out for two full presidencies. By then, I would think the Libertarians would replace the losing party.

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The Man From G.O.P.
TJN2024
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2007, 12:49:54 AM »

I agree with WalterMitty.  Unless a Democratic President REALLY screws up, the Dems will have the White House until 2016 or 2020.  Get ready for 8 years of President Hillary.  And Republicans, you did it to yourselves.

I wouldn't be suprised if one of the parties were totally shot out for two full presidencies. By then, I would think the Libertarians would replace the losing party.





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DuEbrithil
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2007, 01:09:46 AM »

I agree with WalterMitty.  Unless a Democratic President REALLY screws up, the Dems will have the White House until 2016 or 2020.  Get ready for 8 years of President Hillary.  And Republicans, you did it to yourselves.

I wouldn't be suprised if one of the parties were totally shot out for two full presidencies. By then, I would think the Libertarians would replace the losing party.


if that happens, I may just shoot myself
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2007, 04:33:07 AM »

Hopefully never. [/hackery]
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Rob
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2007, 04:46:13 AM »

2020. At which point political scientists will be able to speak of the "Democratic era," as they will have won the popular vote in all but one election since 1988.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2007, 05:26:16 AM »

2008
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2007, 05:59:51 AM »

2008
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MODU
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2007, 07:21:02 AM »

I agree with WalterMitty.  Unless a Democratic President REALLY screws up, the Dems will have the White House until 2016 or 2020.  Get ready for 8 years of President Hillary.  And Republicans, you did it to yourselves.

I wouldn't be suprised if one of the parties were totally shot out for two full presidencies. By then, I would think the Libertarians would replace the losing party.


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Why?  Wouldn't you like a Republican vs Libertarian competition?  Hard core liberals would isolated to a third-party status by then.

But the true question is . . . when will we get rid of these parties all together and get back to voting for the people who are qualified, and not who the parties decide to nominate?  Are you content with the contest to determine between the lesser of two evils.
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nlm
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2007, 08:15:39 AM »

probably 2016 at the earliest.

the gop of today is much like the democrat party of the 80s....out of touch and not trusted by the majority of americans.

the republicans need to lose a few elections and rebuild the party...like the democrats did in 1992.

I have no claim to owning a crystal ball, but it appears to me that '08 is shaping up to be a poor year for the GOP (though much can change in a years time) and who ever wins in '08 will most likely have an advantage in '12 (as most sitting Presidents do).

It is certainly my hope that the GOP will rebuild their party, but I see no indication as of yet that they will, or if they do that it will be rebuilt into something that is similar to what I liked about the party long ago.
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agcatter
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« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2007, 08:53:36 AM »

Never.  I'm surprised this isn't obvious to all.  Demographic trends cannot be disputed.  Hispanic numbers are massive and accelerating.  That transfers into millions more of low income voters who will pull the Democratic lever to get more government goodies.  It's the dirty little secret that Republicans operatives know but somehow never say out loud.  California is long gone.  New Mexico will be gone in 2008.   In 2012 wave bye bye to Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado.  By 2012 the numbers will have sufficiently changed to add to Democratic totals in other now close battleground states in other parts of the country.

Just one example of how drastic the change is.  California study released yesterday indicated the demographics of California by 2050 - 52% Hispanic, 26% white, the rest a mixture of Aian (13%) Black (6%) and other.  Texas (of all states) will be gone by 2020 - Hispanic plurality by then and Hispanic majority by 2025.

Two terms of Hillary and by 2016 presidential elections won't even be competitive.  All you have to do is do the math.  Facts are brutal things.  Numbers don't lie.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2007, 09:37:09 AM »

In 2008, the odds are against Republicans.  Only with Giuliani as a candidate do I suspect the odds are somewhere around even.

After 2008, it's almost impossible to tell.  As demographics and opinions change among the populace, the Republicans and Democrats will modify their principles to reflects these attitudes in order to win elections.

And even the underlying circumstances surrounding the 2008 election may change so much before that election that my analysis may prove wrong.

Politics is a very fluid game.
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agcatter
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« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2007, 10:52:46 AM »

The only possible  variable concerning what I said before would be some sort of catastrophic event - terrorist detenation of a nuke on American soil maybe.  It would have to be something of that magnitude.
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Kevin
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2007, 11:00:01 AM »

Never.  I'm surprised this isn't obvious to all.  Demographic trends cannot be disputed.  Hispanic numbers are massive and accelerating.  That transfers into millions more of low income voters who will pull the Democratic lever to get more government goodies.  It's the dirty little secret that Republicans operatives know but somehow never say out loud.  California is long gone.  New Mexico will be gone in 2008.   In 2012 wave bye bye to Arizona, Nevada, and Colorado.  By 2012 the numbers will have sufficiently changed to add to Democratic totals in other now close battleground states in other parts of the country.

Just one example of how drastic the change is.  California study released yesterday indicated the demographics of California by 2050 - 52% Hispanic, 26% white, the rest a mixture of Aian (13%) Black (6%) and other.  Texas (of all states) will be gone by 2020 - Hispanic plurality by then and Hispanic majority by 2025.

Two terms of Hillary and by 2016 presidential elections won't even be competitive.  All you have to do is do the math.  Facts are brutal things.  Numbers don't lie.

That's one of the reasons the GOP has to become more competitive in Northeastern and Midwestern states that are currently blue like Illinois,New Jersey,Delaware,and parts of New England that used to be Republican leaning.
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2007, 11:30:07 AM »


The Democrats you have to keep in mind have a nasty habit of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.


^^^^^^^^  2008
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Boris
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2007, 01:24:22 PM »

2008
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2007, 01:32:11 PM »

In 2008, as in 2004, the Democrats will lose the elections.  Just how long it is until the Republican though I do not know
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Boris
boris78
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2007, 01:35:51 PM »

2020. At which point political scientists will be able to speak of the "Democratic era," as they will have won the popular vote in all but one election since 1988.

I doubt it. It'll probably be referred to as the Bush-Clinton era, assuming Hillary is elected in 2008.  Hell, it's quite possible I could be 28 by the time I live under a President whose last name isn't Bush or Clinton.
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MODU
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« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2007, 01:41:51 PM »

2020. At which point political scientists will be able to speak of the "Democratic era," as they will have won the popular vote in all but one election since 1988.

I doubt it. It'll probably be referred to as the Bush-Clinton era, assuming Hillary is elected in 2008.  Hell, it's quite possible I could be 28 by the time I live under a President whose last name isn't Bush or Clinton.

hahaha . . . wouldn't that be scary.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2007, 01:46:28 PM »

2020. At which point political scientists will be able to speak of the "Democratic era," as they will have won the popular vote in all but one election since 1988.

I doubt it. It'll probably be referred to as the Bush-Clinton era, assuming Hillary is elected in 2008.  Hell, it's quite possible I could be 28 by the time I live under a President whose last name isn't Bush or Clinton.

Hmmm.. Jeb Bush 2016? Or will he be too old by then?

I have a funny feeling that the Republicans will somehow.. and not sure how and with who.. win in 2008 (Unless Al Gore is DEM nominee).. which would actually be bad for them in the long run. I thought the same in 2004 and look how that turned out..

Apart from that, I echo Lewis' sentiments.
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SPC
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« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2007, 02:31:00 PM »

Well, back in last year, I predicted that if the GOP kept Congress, they couldn't win the P2008 election. However, they lost Congress, and now the Democratic Congress has lower approvals than the Republican president. I think there's a good chance the Democrats will screw up between now and 2012. A Republican will win in 2012 at the latest, and will probably reverse the madness created by the Bush-Clinton era of the previous 24 years.
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Colin
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« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2007, 02:36:45 PM »

2020. At which point political scientists will be able to speak of the "Democratic era," as they will have won the popular vote in all but one election since 1988.

I doubt it. It'll probably be referred to as the Bush-Clinton era, assuming Hillary is elected in 2008.  Hell, it's quite possible I could be 28 by the time I live under a President whose last name isn't Bush or Clinton.

Hmmm.. Jeb Bush 2016? Or will he be too old by then?

Or possibly George P. Bush, Jeb's half-hispanic son.

That would be a scary thought. Even if Hillary wins two terms I think it would, overall, be bad for American democracy since it would mean 22 years of control by two dominant political families. I really don't want to see America become like the late Roman Republic or India anytime soon.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2007, 02:41:04 PM »

2020. At which point political scientists will be able to speak of the "Democratic era," as they will have won the popular vote in all but one election since 1988.

I doubt it. It'll probably be referred to as the Bush-Clinton era, assuming Hillary is elected in 2008.  Hell, it's quite possible I could be 28 by the time I live under a President whose last name isn't Bush or Clinton.

Hmmm.. Jeb Bush 2016? Or will he be too old by then?

Or possibly George P. Bush, Jeb's half-hispanic son.

That would be a scary thought. Even if Hillary wins two terms I think it would, overall, be bad for American democracy since it would mean 22 years of control by two dominant political families. I really don't want to see America become like the late Roman Republic or India anytime soon.

Hey we could have it like this:

George HW Bush: 1989-1993
Bill Clinton: 1993-2001
George W. Bush: 2001-2009
Hillary Clinton: 2009-2017
Jeb Bush: 2017-2025
Chelsea Clinton: 2025-2033
Geore P. Bush: 2033-2041

Now I know how you'd all love that! Tongue
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