Texas in the long term?

[Kevin]

I was readin in another thread about 2008 and one of the posters had a breakdown of how the Southwestern states are trending and made the argument that in the long term Texas could be Democratic leaning state mainly due to immigration from south of the border.

Any opinions?

[Sensei]

Perhaps, but not for a long time.

[Padfoot]

I definitely think we'll start to see Democratic strength in Texas improving as long as current immigration trends continue.  The demographic affects of Katrina will also cause a small boost for Texas Democrats.  Once some of the big city counties start to go Democratic I think there will definitely be a major shift in Texas politics.  I don't expect any statewide victories until 2012 though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh dear. Not this nonsense again. But I think I'll leave this one to Sam and/or Jim...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Unfortunately, whites in Texas vote more solidly Republican than Hispanics vote Democratic (and they have horrible turnout to boot)

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I don't think there's anything to show that Texas won't be a Republican stronghold for a long, long time. 

[Kevin]

Unfortunately, whites in Texas vote more solidly Republican than Hispanics vote Democratic (and they have horrible turnout to boot)

Interestingly enough in 2004 if I remember correctly,Hispanics in Texas voted for Bush by 56-44 margin.

[Alcon]

Unfortunately, whites in Texas vote more solidly Republican than Hispanics vote Democratic (and they have horrible turnout to boot)

Interestingly enough in 2004 if I remember correctly,Hispanics in Texas voted for Bush by 56-44 margin.

I have no idea where people are getting this; the CNN exit poll had Hispanics going Democrat by a point in 2004.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even that was a fluke unlikely to be repeated. Better to go off the 2000 numbers, where Bush got 43% of Hispanics and 71% of Whites.

[Kevin]

Even that was a fluke unlikely to be repeated. Better to go off the 2000 numbers, where Bush got 43% of Hispanics and 71% of Whites.

Still 43% is a good margin among Republicans for a minority group.

[Person Man]

The state economy in texas must be very good.

[memphis]

Texas will not go Dem for prez in the foreseeable future. I'm sure eventually it will just as all states change sooner or later, but I don't think it will be because of any issues that we can see coming right now.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Given how the GOP projects the image of being a protestant white party expect them to lose Texas and the rest of the southwest permanently in a few decades due to demographics.

[CultureKing]

I'm thinking it will probably be a few decades before we see Texas get anywhere close to even being moderate, though it could go either way seeing how far in the future any change would be

[Sam Spade]

Given how the GOP projects the image of being a protestant white party expect them to lose Texas and the rest of the southwest permanently in a few decades due to demographics.

You do realize that the Protestant white vote trend away from the GOP is one the clearest and most obvious trends of the last 50 years.

Of course, unless you're including Evangelical/Non-Denominational types in your statement.   At which point you become a stupid...

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

The GOP's main base is in the midwest and south the most protestant parts of the nations, no? Yes the GOP isn't just a WASP Party its still mostly domianted by WASPS.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

75% of the state voted to ban marriage, so I don't expect this state to become sane any time soon.

[tarheel-leftist85]

75% of the state voted to ban marriage, so I don't expect this state to become sane any time soon.

what would you say about virginia where 43% supported such civil rights?  i think texas may be behind the curve, but demographic changes make it inevitable.  why do you think republican candidates are reverting to 1964-style racism?  what are they going to run on:  the war, the "ecaaaanamy" (how once can discern that bush is from ann coulter/joe liberman land)?  not likely, so now, it's obama-osama, illegal immigrants ruining america (forget that employers hire them), etc., etc.  they're hoping in vain to get 80% of the white vote in some of these states.  unfortunately for them, whites in texas have climbed to around 35% Democratic, so they're gonna get a shock when they see Democrats getting at least 47% next time.  let's just hope we don't have goldwater, jr. (HRC) v. NYC fascist (Giuliani)--lose/lose for the people.  If a majority of whites disapprove of a republican they twice elected as governor, if you combine bell and kinky's white vote share from 2006, i don't think getting the requisite 37 or 38% of the white vote to win the state will be out of the realm of possibility