Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[Tender Branson]

Giuliani, McCain and Fred Thompson will skip it.

So who´s going to win and who´s likely to drop out afterwards ?

I think Romney will win and Hunter and Huckabee are likely to drop out.

"State GOP officials predict as many as 40 thousand activists will take part in the event. If that many people turn out, it would represent more than a third the number of Republicans who likely will show up this winter for the caucuses."

1999 Iowa Straw Poll results:

Bush: 7418 votes - 31%
Forbes: 4921 votes - 21%
Dole: 3410 votes - 14%

2000 Iowa Caucus results:

Bush:  35,231 votes - 41% 
Forbes: 26,198 votes - 30% 
Keyes: 12,268 votes - 14%

[Keystone Phil]

Rudy, McCain and Thompson are definetley out?

Pointless win for Romney.

[MasterJedi]

Romney will probably win but I voted Tommy Thompson because I have hope!

[Reaganfan]

Romney will win it, but I'm rooting for Huckabee.

[Inmate Trump]

Romney, thus putting a used car salesman on the road to winning the GOP nomination.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Mitt Romney should easily win the straw poll. However, I somehow have a feeling about Tommy Thompson. I have no idea why.

[Eraserhead]

Romney, thus putting a used car salesman on the road to winning the GOP nomination.

He will win but nobody cares about this thing anymore. I'm rooting for Paul or Cox to take it though.

[AkSaber]

Mitt Romney should easily win the straw poll. However, I somehow have a feeling about Tommy Thompson. I have no idea why.

Maybe cause Iowa and Wisconsin are fairly close to each other?

[SPC]

Romney will win easily, but Tommy Thompson could pose a mild threat to him, given that he's been campaigning in all 99 counties. Ron Paul's grassroots campaign could also be a threat to Romney. This should be the story of Mitt Romney and the Seven Dwarves. In the end, I expect Romney places first, Tommy places second, and Paul places third. Brownback, Hunter, Cox, and Huckabee drop out thereafter.

[YRABNNRM]

I think Brownback and Huckabee may surprise some people.

[Know Your Rights!]

Romney probably has victory sewn up, but I doubt it will be by a large margin. Thompson and Brownback may surprise, I have my doubts about Huckabee, his campaign is starting to seem moribund. I hope Paul does well, but I will be surprised. I don't think anyone will drop out after this except maybe Thompson.

[Lincoln Republican]

Romney smokes 'em

[poughies]

Romney-Huckabee-Thompson (Tommy)-Brownback-Paul

[Eleden]

I say Gravel jumps in and wins unanimously.

[Tender Branson]

Tommy Thompson may also drop out if he´s not doing well in the straw poll, considering this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Mitt Romney should easily win the straw poll. However, I somehow have a feeling about Tommy Thompson. I have no idea why.

Maybe cause Iowa and Wisconsin are fairly close to each other?

The fact that Iowa and Wisconsin border each other had nothing to do with Tommy Thompson doing well in the Iowa straw poll. To be quiet honest, It didn't come over me when I was actually posting this reply.

[Know Your Rights!]

Mitt Romney should easily win the straw poll. However, I somehow have a feeling about Tommy Thompson. I have no idea why.

Maybe cause Iowa and Wisconsin are fairly close to each other?

The fact that Iowa and Wisconsin border each other had nothing to do with Tommy Thompson doing well in the Iowa straw poll. To be quiet honest, It didn't come over me when I was actually posting this reply.

It's probably that Tommy Thompson is really trying to do well in Iowa (not that no one else is, but you know).

[bergie72]

I really hope Ron Paul performs well.  At least in the double digits.   

20%+ would be gravy!!

[StateBoiler]

Events like these are really how strong is your money and how passionate are your grassroots to show up at a carnival and cast a vote. Paul has the latter and is doing okay on the former so he'll have a solid performance probably.

Easy win for Romney though as he'll be plunking out the Benjamins.

For runner-up I think it will be Huckabee in a mild upset.

Also, even though the campaigns are not taking part, the Iowa GOP can keep Giuliani, McCain, and Fred on the Straw Poll ballot, correct?

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, the contention that the Iowa straw poll at Ames is meaningless if some candidates choose to not participate is sheer nonsense.

Second, the real question here is who will run second and third in the poll.

If any of the second tier candidates hope to break out of obscurity, they need to finish in the top three in the straw poll.

[StateBoiler]

Anyone willing to put their reputation on the line and put up a prediction?

Per iowagop.net, the speakers will be Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, John Cox, Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Tommy Thompson, and Sam Brownback.

The people on the ballot will be Sam Brownback, John Cox, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Tommy Thompson.

[MasterJedi]

1. Mitt Romney
2. Tommy Thompson

No idea who comes after.

[StateBoiler]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's pretty nasty.

[SPC]

Anyone willing to put their reputation on the line and put up a prediction?

Sure, why not:
1. Mitt Romney
2. Sam Brownback
3. Ron Paul
4. Tom Tancredo
5. Mike Huckabee (withdraws from race thereafter)
6. Tommy Thompson (withdraws from race thereafter)
7. John Cox
8. Duncan Hunter (withdraws from race thereafter)

[HappyWarrior]

Two things.  First, who is this John Cox guy?

Second, there are only two Republicans I like in the whole race Tommy Thompson and Mike Huckabee.  In a general election, they are the only ones I would EVER vote for.