Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[DanielX]

Good for:
Huckabee: Very impressive. I'd move him up to first-tier candidates. If Fred Thompson fizzles Huckabee will be the "conservative" wing's choice.
Tancredo: The Pat Buchanan of 2008, if Paul isn't...
Brownback: Not as well off as Huckabee, but not so bad either. I'd put him near the top of the second tier now.

Neutral for:
Romney: Only big media-hyped candidate to show. Won, but cost him lots of $$$ for a relatively puny victory against mostly second-tier candidates.
Giuliani, F. Thompson: Few votes cuz' they didn't show.
Paul: Ahead of most of the second-tier. May be good; he might actually get conventional media attention for him.

Bad for:
The bottom tier (Cox and Hunter). Cox never had a chance, Hunter's was/is minuscule. 
McCain - He's toast.  May or may not drop out.
T. Thompson - Ditto; he's going to drop out.

I think the Republican candidates will be as follows:

First tier (doing well):
Romney, Giuliani, F. Thompson, Huckabee (one or more of these may drift onto the top of the seond tier)

Second Tier (have a chance):
Brownback (if he stays in), Tancredo, Paul, McCain/T. Thompson (if they stay in). One or more may drift to bottom of first tier.

Third Tier (don't really have a chance):
Cox, Hunter, Keyes, Stassen's ghost,  various/sundry

[MasterJedi]

Duncan Hunter has said on CNN that the straw poll was just the start of his campaign in Iowa and that he'll do really well there. So he's staying in, the state where he'll do the best IMO is South Carolina but that will be only a few percentage points.

[Verily]

I wonder if this really means anything for Huckabee though. If he stays in all the way, he'll still probably only manage a fourth place in the caucus.

Possibly not; if Romney continues to run away with the lead in Iowa, Giuliani and McCain (and Thompson) may decide to ignore it entirely. McCain almost got away with this is 2000, and would have if not for dirty tactics by the Bush campaign in South Carolina, so it's not entirely out of the question.

[Mr. Morden]

Most humorous dispatch from the straw poll:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/11/AR2007081101058_pf.html

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[Eraserhead]

I think its time for the wise words of George Stephanopoulos concerning Ron Paul

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTCnt1TnFHs&mode=related&search=

Stephanopoulos is a jerk. That was very unprofessional.

[Eraserhead]

Duncan Hunter has said on CNN that the straw poll was just the start of his campaign in Iowa and that he'll do really well there. So he's staying in, the state where he'll do the best IMO is South Carolina but that will be only a few percentage points.

Who is this guy kidding? Give it up.

[Eraserhead]

Does anyone know how many votes Keyes got?

[Mr. Morden]

Was Keyes actually on the ballot?  I thought he just had a bunch of supporters there to attract publicity.  Not even sure if those supporters were Iowans (and thus, whether they were eligible to vote in the straw poll anyway).

[MasterJedi]

I don't actually think his name was on the ballot.

[Eraserhead]

Was Keyes actually on the ballot?  I thought he just had a bunch of supporters there to attract publicity.  Not even sure if those supporters were Iowans (and thus, whether they were eligible to vote in the straw poll anyway).

Oh I thought he was on the ballot but I'm probably wrong about that.

[StateBoiler]

Romney 32.2%
Huckabee 18.4%
Brownback 15.6%
Tancredo 14.0%
Paul 9.3%
Tommy 7.4%
Fred 1.4%
Giuliani 1.3%
Hunter 1.2%
McCain 0.7%
Cox 0.3%

-I agree with some that this wasn't that good an effort for Romney. Only bigshot there and spent by far the most money and he can't even claim that 1 out of 3 participants yesterday voted for him.
-About what I expected for my man Paul.
-Bad number for Hunter.
-In the race between the 3 guys "not running", Fred beat out Giuliani and McCain.
-I guess Tommy Thompson will take the race down from 9 to 8.
-Surprised Tancredo almost did better than Brownback. Good showing for the GOP's nativist/nationalist wing.
-If Brownback gets out, you'd think most of his support would meander to Huckabee ideologically, not that that is always indicative of future support.