Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

[SPC]

Two things.  First, who is this John Cox guy?

He's an Illinois businessman and the chairman of the Cook County Republican Party. The media has excluded him from the debates.

[StateBoiler]

Two things.  First, who is this John Cox guy?

He's an Illinois businessman and the chairman of the Cook County Republican Party. The media has excluded him from the debates.

It would help if he had actually won an election before.

[Tender Branson]

Prediction:

1 - Romney
2 - Paul
3 - T. Thompson
4 - Brownback
5 - Huckabee
6 - Tancredo
7 - Hunter
8 - Cox

What about Giuliani, McCain and F. Thompson ? They are on the ballot, but not campaigning ? So what are the chances that either F. Thompson or Rudy Giuliani comes in 2nd after Romney, despite not campaigning ?

[Mr. Morden]

What about Giuliani, McCain and F. Thompson ? They are on the ballot, but not campaigning ? So what are the chances that either F. Thompson or Rudy Giuliani comes in 2nd after Romney, despite not campaigning ?

If the 1999 straw poll is any indication, it's doubtful.  That year, McCain skipped the straw poll, and came in dead last (not counting candidates who had already dropped out of the race completely, but were still on the ballot), even behind Hatch and Quayle:

http://www.cnn.com/ALLPOLITICS/stories/1999/08/14/iowa.saturday.02/

[Mr. Morden]

By the way, there was a strong correlation between fundraising totals and Iowa straw poll results in 1999, as the candidates with $ tend to spend a lot to get their people out.  So I expect that Paul, Brownback, and Tancredo will do well (relative to where they are in the polls) because they have the most $ of anyone in the second tier.  Whereas Huckabee, Hunter, and Thompson will not do that well, relative to what you would expect from their poll standings.  Romney will obviously win.

[BeagleBoy]

By the way, there was a strong correlation between fundraising totals and Iowa straw poll results in 1999, as the candidates with $ tend to spend a lot to get their people out.  So I expect that Paul, Brownback, and Tancredo will do well (relative to where they are in the polls) because they have the most $ of anyone in the second tier.  Whereas Huckabee, Hunter, and Thompson will not do that well, relative to what you would expect from their poll standings.  Romney will obviously win.

I agree completely. That has been my thinking all along.

This business of Giuliani, F. Thompson, and McCain skipping Ames, however, still has me guessing. When McCain skipped in 1999, he was barely a candidate yet, and he wasn't doing much in the polls (correct me if I'm wrong there). So, this is truly uncharted waters. I am predicting their straw-poll percentages will be far less than their media-poll percentages, but they are not going to come in at the back of the pack.

[Tender Branson]

By the way, there was a strong correlation between fundraising totals and Iowa straw poll results in 1999, as the candidates with $ tend to spend a lot to get their people out.  So I expect that Paul, Brownback, and Tancredo will do well (relative to where they are in the polls) because they have the most $ of anyone in the second tier.  Whereas Huckabee, Hunter, and Thompson will not do that well, relative to what you would expect from their poll standings.  Romney will obviously win.

I agree completely. That has been my thinking all along.

This business of Giuliani, F. Thompson, and McCain skipping Ames, however, still has me guessing. When McCain skipped in 1999, he was barely a candidate yet, and he wasn't doing much in the polls (correct me if I'm wrong there). So, this is truly uncharted waters. I am predicting their straw-poll percentages will be far less than their media-poll percentages, but they are not going to come in at the back of the pack.

I think there´s a good chance that either Fred Thompson or Rudy Giuliani ends up in the Top-3, despite "skipping" it ...

[Reluctant Republican]

For some reason beyond my understanding, I was watching the 700 club yesterday and thought I heard Pat Robertson say he won the poll in 1988. If this is the case, what’s the real significance behind the poll? I understand the media will report on who ever does strongly in it, but is the straw poll even worth participating in, for anyone other then the lesser known candidates?

As for results, I say Romney wins with Paul coming in second, and Tancredo in third.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For some reason beyond my understanding, I was watching the 700 club yesterday and thought I heard Pat Robertson say he won the poll in 1988.

Phil Gramm tied with Dole in 1996 there.  They've changed the rules since to disallow out-of-state voters, but regardless, I agree—it's an almost entirely pointless exercise.

[Mr. Morden]

For some reason beyond my understanding, I was watching the 700 club yesterday and thought I heard Pat Robertson say he won the poll in 1988. If this is the case, what’s the real significance behind the poll? I understand the media will report on who ever does strongly in it, but is the straw poll even worth participating in, for anyone other then the lesser known candidates?

Robertson did win the IA straw poll in 1987, but that doesn't mean that it was irrelevant.  I wasn't following politics back then (I was way too young), so I'm not exactly sure how much of a boost the straw poll gave him, but Robertson did end up coming in second in the actual Iowa caucus, and was a significant player in the 1988 primaries, even though he probably never had any real chance of winning the nomination.  The IA straw poll winner pretty much always comes in either 1st or 2nd in the actual IA caucuses.

[BeagleBoy]

Mitt Romney--42%
Ron Paul--20%
Tom Tancredo--15%
Sam Brownback--7%
Fred Thompson--4%
Mike Huckabee--3.5%
Rudy Giuliani--3%
Tommy Thompson--2.5%
John McCain--2%
Duncan Hunter--1%
John Cox--less than 1%

[SPC]

Here's a chart made by a survey of 30 Iowa Republicans. A 1st-place prediction is worth 5 points, a 2nd worth 4 points, etc.:


From the looks of this, Romney has the most to lose, and Paul has the most to gain. This would also appear to be good news for Tancredo's anti-immigration campaign.

[Eraserhead]

Here's a chart made by a survey of 30 Iowa Republicans. A 1st-place prediction is worth 5 points, a 2nd worth 4 points, etc.:


From the looks of this, Romney has the most to lose, and Paul has the most to gain. This would also appear to be good news for Tancredo's anti-immigration campaign.

Paul is behind Cox? wtf?

[Know Your Rights!]

Here's a chart made by a survey of 30 Iowa Republicans. A 1st-place prediction is worth 5 points, a 2nd worth 4 points, etc.:


From the looks of this, Romney has the most to lose, and Paul has the most to gain. This would also appear to be good news for Tancredo's anti-immigration campaign.

Paul is behind Cox? wtf?

Cox has been in the race longer and according to his campaign has the support of some county leaders. I can't find the article on his website, but I've seen it on there before.

Also note this:
http://www.cox2008.com/cox/govs_gilmore_branstad_ray_make_plea_to_abc_news/

I find it interesting, too bad it didn't work.

[Verily]

Romney - 44%
Tancredo - 18%
T. Thompson - 12%
Mike Huckabee - 9%
John Cox - 6%
Sam Brownback - 5%
Ron Paul - 3%
Duncan Hunter - 3%

Tancredo and Romney both declare victory. Tommy Thompson says that he will stay in the race at first, but drops out after the next few Iowa polls fail to show any improvement. John Cox is invited to the next Republican debate but makes no impact.

[YRABNNRM]

Here's my prediction based off of almost nothing...

1. Romney
2. Brownback
3. Thompson
4. Tancredo
5. Paul
6. Huckabee
7. Cox
8. Hunter

Huckabee drops out.

[SPC]

Here's a chart made by a survey of 30 Iowa Republicans. A 1st-place prediction is worth 5 points, a 2nd worth 4 points, etc.:


From the looks of this, Romney has the most to lose, and Paul has the most to gain. This would also appear to be good news for Tancredo's anti-immigration campaign.

Paul is behind Cox? wtf?

Cox has been in the race longer and according to his campaign has the support of some county leaders. I can't find the article on his website, but I've seen it on there before.

Also note this:
http://www.cox2008.com/cox/govs_gilmore_branstad_ray_make_plea_to_abc_news/

I find it interesting, too bad it didn't work.

Cox should be allowed into the debates. If they included Gilmore in the 10-man debate, they should include Cox now. Especially when the field thins in the next few weeks.

[Person Man]

I heard a rumor about Fred dropping if he does not come in at least third in this straw poll. Is it true?

[HappyWarrior]

I don't see how Fred Thompson can drop out, he's never officially entered.  Btw, who is John Cox?  I've heard of him a few times but have no idea who he is, what he stands for, or why he is in the race.

[Mr. Morden]

I heard a rumor about Fred dropping if he does not come in at least third in this straw poll. Is it true?

No, you're thinking of Tommy.  And I think he actually said that he'd likely drop out if he doesn't finish in the top *two*.  Though that was months ago.  He might have changed his mind.

Another tidbit about the straw poll.  It looks like Alan Keyes supporters are going to make an appearance there:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/08/alan_keyes_for_president.php

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[SPC]

Btw, who is John Cox?  I've heard of him a few times but have no idea who he is, what he stands for, or why he is in the race.

John Cox is the Cook County Republican County Chairman who has never held elected office before. He's basically holds the Republican platform on every issue except gun control. He decded to run for president after waking up one morning or some reason.

Also, here is my new straw poll prediction:

Romney 36% (~15200 votes)
Paul 18% (~7500 votes)
Huckabee 10% (~4300 votes)
Tancredo 9% (~4000 votes)
Brownback 8% (~3600 votes)
T. Thompson 6% (~2600 votes)
Giuliani 4% (~1600 votes)
Hunter 3% (~1400 votes)
F. Thompson 3% (~1300 votes)
McCain 3% (~1200 votes)
Keyes 1% (~300 votes)
Cox 0% (~30 votes)

[Eraserhead]

Here is my shot in the dark prediction:

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Paul
4. Tancredo
5. Brownback
6. T. Thompson
7. Hunter
8. Cox
9. F. Thompson
10. Giuliani
11. Keyes
12. McCain
13. Gilmore

[DownWithTheLeft]

Romney will win and if Thompson doesn't get in soon, I'll jump on Romney's bandwagon

[Mr. Morden]

Romney is of course a lock for first place.  My shot in the dark guess for second place is Brownback.  Paul has more money, sure, but the media articles I've read on this make it sound like Brownback is going more all out in his straw poll efforts, while I'm not sure it's quite as high a priority for Paul.  Huckabee and T. Thompson seem to be going all out as well, but they're pretty strapped for cash, so my naive guess is that they won't be able to do quite as well at turning people out.

[MasterJedi]

As everyone has said Romney wins, what's at stake is how much does he win by? If that gap isn't very big he could be in some trouble.