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Author Topic: The end of the Republican Party?  (Read 4078 times)
Kevin
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« on: July 15, 2007, 09:10:01 pm »
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I was having a talk with my Dad about 2008 today,and he said tha Hillary Clinton will most likely win next year and he commented on the future of the Republican Party with it's current inept leadership combined with the changing Demographics of this nation that the Republican Part over the course of the next 20 years would cease being a major force in American politics. Then he predicted that the Democratic Party would split into two diffrent parties do to fighting between it's moderate wing and it's hard left wing,So we would have two major competing parties with one party becoming the more moderate but still quite liberal one and the other party would be made up of the much more progressive hard left almost European styled socialist party. This may sound a little pisssimistic from a Republican point of view but combined with the fact that the Republican Party does not have much going for it,I could see this turning into reality.         
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2007, 09:56:38 pm »
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If the GOP were ever to dissolve I think you would see a return of the Southern Democrat as a new party rather than moderates vs. ultra liberals.  You might also see an uptick in people who identify themselves as Libertarians as moderate former members of the GOP look for a new political affiliation.  I actually think that a collapse of the GOP would actually cause the creation of a 3 party system with a far left party, a socially conservative and economically liberal party, and a socially liberal economically conservative party.

However, I doubt the GOP will ever really dissolve.  They will just have to find some way to adapt to the new political and demographic realities of the country as we move forward in time.  Right now there is a battle going on between social conservatives and economic conservatives for control of the party.  This intraparty strife is being exasperated by the immigration debate and it very well could result in the GOP losing half of it's base voters depending on the Democratic response and the available 3rd party options.
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Kevin
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2007, 10:08:33 pm »
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If the GOP were ever to dissolve I think you would see a return of the Southern Democrat as a new party rather than moderates vs. ultra liberals.  You might also see an uptick in people who identify themselves as Libertarians as moderate former members of the GOP look for a new political affiliation.  I actually think that a collapse of the GOP would actually cause the creation of a 3 party system with a far left party, a socially conservative and economically liberal party, and a socially liberal economically conservative party.

However, I doubt the GOP will ever really dissolve.  They will just have to find some way to adapt to the new political and demographic realities of the country as we move forward in time.  Right now there is a battle going on between social conservatives and economic conservatives for control of the party.  This intraparty strife is being exasperated by the immigration debate and it very well could result in the GOP losing half of it's base voters depending on the Democratic response and the available 3rd party options.

I also keep in mind that the Republicans lost alot of influnice in the 1930s and also had changing demographics against them,I think we are seeing somewhat of the same thing in 2008,Then with the demographic changes the Republicans may lose the who entire Southwest over the next 15 years or so. So in order to counter this electoral change the Republicans need to become more competitive in states that became realibly blue after 1992 i.e. Illinois,New Jersey, and some other states. I think the South excluding Virginia and Florida will remain solidly Republican so in order to survive polically the Republican Party must embark on a Rust Belt strategy or something like that.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2007, 01:55:19 pm by Kevin »Logged



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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2007, 11:13:10 pm »
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The GOP die? Not happening. However demographic change plus the ongoing shift in coalitions. The dems are becoming the GOP of 1900-1960 but with a socialist wing and the GOP is becoming the dems of 1900-1960 minus the leftist wing.
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2007, 12:32:48 am »
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The GOP isn't going to die. If/when they lose 2008, they'll regroup and make gains in the house/senate in 2010. Then they'll take the Presidency in 2012 or at a later date. 2020 at the latest.

If you haven't noticed, politics follows a pattern. For the past 150 years, we've had a cycle in which Republicans and Democrats exchange power. Both parties always get it back, no matter how badly they've previously fucked up. And that is one of the worst things, IMO, about the two-party system.
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2007, 01:25:32 am »
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It's not going to die.

The party has been symbolised by the union between the libertarians (low/no taxes - small government) and the conservatives (everyone is free... except them and them and them). While it doesn't make a huge amount of sense - it will survive.
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2007, 01:45:19 am »
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I have the feeling the Democratic and Republican parties will remain our only major parties for as long as our nation exists. A strong third party or independent showing will continue to occur every once in a while, but they will not remain large or influential for very long.
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2007, 09:04:23 am »
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The possibility of the Republican Party dying doesn't make sense in the slightest.

While the brand has been hurt by the Iraq War, there still remains significant support in major segments of the population for GOP fiscal theory and a conservative approach to social issues such as gay marriage and abortion.  Iraq hasn't changed that.

And once the Iraq issue begins to fade, the public will once again start to focus on those issues.  It could be another rough cycle ahead for Republicans (and so, I think, the GOP deserves it), but 2010 matters so much more than 2008 in a long-term political sense: redistricting will be at stake.  It's easier to hold a 50/50 seat by making it a 55/45 seat rather than by having a strong incumbent holding it.

And no matter what happens in 2008, the Iraq War should be a relative non-factor as a campaign issue in 2010.  Much the way Vietnam failed to factor in to the 1978 Congressional races.  People were more concerned then with the Panama Canal giveaway than with what was going on in Southeast Asia.  Short memories.

There was a lot of talk about Republicans being "dead" on a generational level post-1974, and then about Democrats being "dead" on a similar generational level post-1980 (and then again after the 1994 midterms).

Bad as the drubbings seemed, the long term impact was virtually nil.  It only took a mere six years in each scenario for the party to experience a complete turnaround a win back control of the U.S. Senate.
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2007, 10:14:13 am »
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The end of the Republican Party?  Ridiculous.

I am sure the same thing was said of the Republican Party in 1932, 1936, 1964.

I am sure the same thing was said of the Democratic Party in 1972, 1984.

These things go in cycles. 

The tide goes out, the tide comes in. 
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2007, 12:48:09 pm »
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The end of the Republican Party?  Ridiculous.

I am sure the same thing was said of the Republican Party in 1932, 1936, 1964.

I am sure the same thing was said of the Democratic Party in 1972, 1984.

These things go in cycles. 

The tide goes out, the tide comes in. 

The Democratic Party still held Congress after the 1972 and 1984 elections.
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2007, 01:14:58 pm »
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The end of the Republican Party?  Ridiculous.

I am sure the same thing was said of the Republican Party in 1932, 1936, 1964.

I am sure the same thing was said of the Democratic Party in 1972, 1984.

These things go in cycles. 

The tide goes out, the tide comes in. 

The Democratic Party still held Congress after the 1972 and 1984 elections.

In 1984, Democrats failed to win the Senate for the third consecutive cycle, and Republicans had something of a working conservative majority in the House.
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bgwah
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2007, 04:39:21 pm »
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The end of the Republican Party?  Ridiculous.

I am sure the same thing was said of the Republican Party in 1932, 1936, 1964.

I am sure the same thing was said of the Democratic Party in 1972, 1984.

These things go in cycles. 

The tide goes out, the tide comes in. 

The Democratic Party still held Congress after the 1972 and 1984 elections.

In 1984, Democrats failed to win the Senate for the third consecutive cycle, and Republicans had something of a working conservative majority in the House.

Err, I guess I was thinking of the House. Tongue
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MaC
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2007, 06:10:41 pm »
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pure silliness.  As much as I hope that the Democrats fall from power and that the LP, GP, and CP replace them, it's likely not going to happen in my lifetime.  My goal is to make the Democrats and Republicans more libertarian in their thinking.
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« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2007, 10:29:03 pm »
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Yeah, after 1856, the party system has matured. One thing you could think about are changing coalitions. What if the fiscal conservatives are ignored in the GOP? Well, 30 years from now, you could have a libertarian democratic party and a communalist republican party, rather than a liberal/conservative divide.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2007, 08:11:43 am »
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We're already on that path. The GOP is already an authoritarian populist part.
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2007, 10:13:09 am »
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IThis may sound a little pisssimistic from a Republican point of view but combined with the fact that the Republican Party does not have much going for it,I could see this turning into reality.         

Gotta admit I like that word Cheesy

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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2007, 12:09:07 pm »
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I'll add my dissent to the 'end of the Republican Party'.  It would be nice if it would go away, but obviously it won't as there are only two of them and it has so much money behind it.

Anyway what's the difference?  The interesting thing is that both parties are so right wing, and thus the endless cycling back and forth between them changes so little.
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« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2007, 03:19:43 pm »
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I'll add my dissent to the 'end of the Republican Party'.  It would be nice if it would go away, but obviously it won't as there are only two of them and it has so much money behind it.

Anyway what's the difference?  The interesting thing is that both parties are so right wing, and thus the endless cycling back and forth between them changes so little.

Ummm.... 2007 was nothing like the country of 1977 and that country had litle resembalance to the country in 1947 and that country had little resemblance to the country of 1917 and that country looked nothing like the country did in 1857.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
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« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2007, 03:20:39 pm »
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We're already on that path. The GOP is already an authoritarian populist part.
See...the seeds have been sown. 15 more year should do it.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
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« Reply #19 on: July 17, 2007, 08:51:57 pm »
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Yeah, after 1856, the party system has matured. One thing you could think about are changing coalitions. What if the fiscal conservatives are ignored in the GOP? Well, 30 years from now, you could have a libertarian democratic party and a communalist republican party, rather than a liberal/conservative divide.

I doubt it; the Democrats hold economic progressive/socialist ideas too strongly to possibly become a true 'libertarian' party, at least not in the next century or so. The vast majority of the "liberals" would not consider voting for a communalist party, because of opposition to religious values. Together, they are likely to continue to hold a left-of-center economic viewpoint. They might manage to intimidate true libertarians into voting for them (by comparing themselves to the Republicans), but they'd never be accepted as the 'mainstream'.

However, the Republicans going authoritarian seems quite possible, ditching economic conservativism and taking up 'Godly' values to hold the South and Midwest in line. It isn't the only possible path for them, but it certainly is an option. 

The end result, unless a viable libertarian or right-libertarian third party becomes a major force, will be no less than the economic ruin of the nation, as capitalism is continuously blamed for the nation's problems, and the political establishment uses business as a boogeyman to get voters to hand control over for them (even though big business will do just well, thank you. Small business, on the other hand, will be practically dead). I can easily see this resulting in a nearly-collapsed United States falling to either religious fascism or pseudo-communism, perhaps even some truly evil combination of the two.
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« Reply #20 on: July 18, 2007, 08:03:10 am »
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We tried libertarianism. IT was called the 19th century and it didn't work. You fail.
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« Reply #21 on: July 18, 2007, 03:41:03 pm »
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Calm down, you too. It could just be a moderate form of libertarianism and I don't know how corporate welfare 19th century america was libertarian.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
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« Reply #22 on: July 18, 2007, 08:25:02 pm »
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The 19th century actually had less corporate welfare than today (albeit still a substantial amount). However, the government did have several other blemishes to a libertarian eye, namely restrictions on the right to vote (property-owners only until 1830s, even afterwards limits to the franchise of women and ethnic/racial minorities), involuntary slavery, strong morality laws in some times/places, government acting on behalf of businesses (instead of a true 'lasseiz faire' policy), and high tariffs.

Anyway, the 19th century US didn't exactly 'not work'. Was it ideal? Hell no. But the US did, after all, more-or-less work for the whole century (except for the Civil War).
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« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2007, 08:53:22 pm »
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Libertarian anarchocapitalism(as in what the LP believes) is just a fantasy and won't work. Fiscal conservatism/less government interference in the economy is perfectly doable but not politically likely anytime in the next few decades.
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« Reply #24 on: July 18, 2007, 09:05:31 pm »
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If this were the case, the GOP would have been gone years ago. Money and low voter turn out will keep them in power.
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