Indiana Governor 2008: Daniels Expands War Chest

[Adlai Stevenson]

Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) "has a whopping head start in the race to keep his office," the Indianapolis Star reports. "New campaign-finance reports show that Daniels has more than $4.1 million in his campaign war chest -- more than three times the combined total his three Democratic challengers have raised."

"In fact, he raised about $1.4 million in June, topping in a single month the $1.2 million the leading Democrat in the race, Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger, has raised so far."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/07/17/in_indiana_daniels_expands_war_chest.html

I would have thought that former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson is the leading Democrat in the race? 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

One year ago, I'd have pegged both Blunt and Daniels as goners, but they've both been steadily improving their positions to the point where both races should be highly competitive.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am inclined to think that 1 out of the 2 are most likely to go and I think Daniels is the more likely one.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I am inclined to think that 1 out of the 2 are most likely to go and I think Daniels is the more likely one.

I think I agree with you on that at this point in time.

[Kevin]

In 08 I think Daniels will be reelected and Blunt is a goner,However we will just have to wait and see. 

[Sam Spade]

I personally tend to think that Daniels is the one more likely to survive - he won by more in 2004 than Blunt and has weaker opponents, and I suspect has slightly higher popularity, but who knows this far out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I think Blunt is done, Daniels has slightly less than a 50/50 chance.

[Tender Branson]

I think Blunt is done, Daniels has slightly less than a 50/50 chance.

Agreed. Blunt's approval rating is at 42%, Jay Nixon is a more centrist or conservative Democrat, has won his latest race in 2004 with over 60% and is certainly in line with MO voters. This could be a 55-45 race.

The Indiana race may be close.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I recall, while Kerry was leading in MO in the summer of 2004, Blunt was trailing McCaskill and then the race changed in the fall. I think that it is a still a tossup. Daniels on the other hand has raised consumer taxes and I think it is a pitfall for him in IN. Blunt has never raised taxes in MO.  I think both are tossups at this point.

[AndrewTX]

Daniels might survive, but Blunt is gone. Nixon is too popular for him to win re-election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I didn't say that Blunt was going to win, he isn't out of it either. With GOP probably carrying MO this election cycle and the Dems winning key congressional districts in IN I think both states are going to go down to the wire.

[AndrewTX]

^ I agree.

 I just personally think that Blunt doesn't have a chance. I just think that with the popularity of Jay Nixon, Blunt doesn't stand much of a chance.

[Alcon]

As I recall, while Kerry was leading in MO in the summer of 2004

Kerry only ever led one poll in Missouri, a Zogby in May.  A July Gallup showed a tie.  The results were close-ish throughout the summer but pulled away increasingly in September.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I recall, while Kerry was leading in MO in the summer of 2004

Kerry only ever led one poll in Missouri, a Zogby in May.  A July Gallup showed a tie.  The results were close-ish throughout the summer but pulled away increasingly in September.

Some may not think online Zogby polling is accurate, but the online polling of Zogby shows Kerry leading in MO all of July and most of August.  http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html.

As for the races of IN and MO. I wasn't saying that Blunt was going to win, he is clearly the most vulnerable GOP incumbant governor out there. But if anyone can come back is Blunt, he did it against a top notch candidate like McCaskill so he can do it the same. Blunt is more likely to come back from election defeat than Daniels, that was the point I was trying to get across.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Some may not think online Zogby polling is accurate

And that "some" is correct.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Zogby did have the VA race a battleground in 2006 before every other pollster, when most pollsters had it Allen favorite. I think sometimes you have to balance the national polls with the Zogby polls.

[Tender Branson]

I think Blunt is done, Daniels has slightly less than a 50/50 chance.

Agreed. Blunt's approval rating is at 42%, Jay Nixon is a more centrist or conservative Democrat, has won his latest race in 2004 with over 60% and is certainly in line with MO voters. This could be a 55-45 race.

The Indiana race may be close.

Blunt now has a positive approval rating (48-46) in July. The race may well be a Toss-Up, but I still give Nixon a slight edge of up to 5%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Zogby did have the VA race a battleground in 2006 before every other pollster, when most pollsters had it Allen favorite. I think sometimes you have to balance the national polls with the Zogby polls.

Because at the time Allen was heavily favored before the "macaca" deal went down. The first poll I saw after that was Rasmussen I believe with Allen +3, it was now a battleground.

Zogby Interactive polls are based on a fundamentally flawed methodology.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The national journal/Hotline newspaper had Kerry ahead in MO as well in the summer of 2004.  So, I wasn't going solely on Zogby flawed methology.