In the latest
WMUR poll of likely NH primary voters showed a bit of a change from previous polls. Here are the numbers from June and July, showing only announced candidates who gather support at all (Gravel and Dodd had none):
June ‘07 July ‘07
Clinton 39% 36%
Obama 25 27
Richardson 11 11
Edwards 14 9
Biden 5 4
Kucinich 2 3
Other 2 0
Undecided 2 9
I'd like to discuss which candidates gain and lose at the expense of the others, and why. What I'd assume at first is that Obama and Edwards are largely fighting for the same crowd of voters. Those that love a good smile, like a positive outlook, optimism, and don't care too much for the details. The kind of people who'd look into a candidate's eyes, see his smile, and be reassured that he's the one, without taking a glance at a policy paper or reading into their records.
Clinton, Biden and Edwards, I feel, will be fighting for voters that are more interested in solid credentials, intelligence, work ethic, pragmatism, and things of that nature.
I don't think these are real solid distinctions, but just generalities.
So looking at this poll, the 2 changes that are outside the margin of error are that Edwards has lost support, and that those supporters are apparently now undecided.
Does anyone agree that at least the plurality of his voters will end up supporting Obama, maybe giving obama 3 more points, with the rest sort of being relatively evenly spread?
