Cheney v Kerry 2004

[Lincoln Republican]

In November, 2003, President George W Bush is tragically gunned down while on a trip to Atlanta.  He is killed instantly. 

Vice President Dick Cheney, in Tulsa at the time, is informed, and is sworn in as the new President by a local judge within 20 minutes.  He flies back to DC immediately afterwards, where he is sworn in again by the Chief Justice of the United States, William Rehnquist.  The new President rallies the nation in this time of tragedy.

President Cheney decides to run for President in 2004, and receives the nomination without opposition.  He picks Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania for Vice President.  Ridge was a member of the House of Representatives 1983-95, Governor of Pennsylvania 1995-2001, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security 2001-2003, and Secretary of Homeland Security since 2003.

The Democrats pick Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts for President and he picks Senator John Edwards of  North Carolina for Vice President.

How does this election go?

Maps?,

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think this would be a tricky one to call given the circumstances. If Bush couldn't have run for personal reasons... then I'd say Cheney would have BIG BIG problems. But the VP to an assassinated President... hmmm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Verily]

I think this would be a tricky one to call given the circumstances. If Bush couldn't have run for personal reasons... then I'd say Cheney would have BIG BIG problems. But the VP to an assassinated President... hmmm.

Exactly. It's hard to say how much the sheen of being the successor to an assassinated President would have worn off by then. Certainly Cheney is entirely acking in electable characteristics, but that might not matter so much.

Unlike Kennedy, though, Bush was only middlingly popular by November 2003 (approvals around 50%), so the sheen might be much faster to wear off than it was on Johnson (as Kennedy's approval was around 60% when he was assassinated).

[DownWithTheLeft]

I disagree with a lot of people because I think John Kerry was very uninspiring and that most of the vote of anti-Bush rather than pro-Kerry, so if the anti-Bush sentiment did not exist and Cheney was able to maintain high approvals we see a map that looks something like this:

[Stranger in a strange land]

I think that the sympathy vote factor would have given Cheney a very narrow victory. Maybe Ohio and Wisconsin voting for Cheney and thus making him President.

This is Dick Cheney we're talking about. He's not exactly a sympathetic person. This is an election even Kerry could win. I think Quincy's map is about right, though I might give Missouri and Nevada to Kerry.

[Person Man]

Yeah. Cheney might be an inspiring bad boy, but he lacks the "W" factor. Then again, he might of had the fierceness to make downwithdaleft's scenario come true. I give it a 1:2 chance.

[Verily]

I disagree with a lot of people because I think John Kerry was very uninspiring and that most of the vote of anti-Bush rather than pro-Kerry, so if the anti-Bush sentiment did not exist and Cheney was able to maintain high approvals we see a map that looks something like this:

Yes, Cheney, who has always been less popular than Bush, won't have any anti-Cheney vote at all.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I disagree with a lot of people because I think John Kerry was very uninspiring and that most of the vote of anti-Bush rather than pro-Kerry, so if the anti-Bush sentiment did not exist and Cheney was able to maintain high approvals we see a map that looks something like this:

Yes, Cheney, who has always been less popular than Bush, won't have any anti-Cheney vote at all.

The anti-Cheney sentiment could easily disappear upon the assassination of Bush if Cheney were to rise to the ocassion, Cheney's main problem is many people see him is this evil behind the scenes guy.  If were a president out in public following the death of the president, the sentiment could easily change

[Lincoln Republican]

Here's what happens, IMO.

In 2004, President Bush still enjoyed a relatively respectable approval rating.  President Cheney campaigns to some extent on continuing the work begun by the Bush administration.  Cheney also exploits Kerry's perceived or real record of flip flopping.

Ridge delivers his home state of Pennsylvania, with it's substantial 21 electoral votes, a major blow to the Kerry campaign. 

As well, Ridge helps greatly in modifying Cheney's sharp and conservative reputation.    

Cheney succeeds in his strategy of convincing the electorate to continue the work begun by the late President, and capitalizes on the sympathy vote. 

Cheney may not be the most beloved figure in public life, but he is seen as qualified and capable, and as the successor to an assassinated President, he wins the election. 

A clear win for Cheney and Ridge.

Cheney/Ridge               317
Kerry/Edwards              221