Lary Sabato: Top Senate targets for 2008

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Colorado -- Wayne Allard (R), retiring
Louisiana -- Mary Landrieu (D)
Maine -- Susan Collins (R)
Minnesota -- Norm Coleman (R)
New Hampshire -- John Sununu (R)
Oregon -- Gordon Smith (R)
South Dakota -- Tim Johnson (D)

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/07/19/sabatos_senate_forecast.html

[Jaggerjack]

Oregon's a waste of time and money

[TheresNoMoney]

North Carolina should be included as well. So should Virginia (once Warner announces his retirement).

[Sam Spade]

Good, correct list for July 2007.

Until Liz Dole gets a quality opponent, I can't put it in the top list.  Besides, NC in Presidential years = not good for Senate Dem candidates historically or Prez candidates either.  Of course Virginia is here if Warner retires, otherwise no, but that is obvious.  There are a couple of other Republican seats that could be interesting with quality opponents or retirements, but I don't see them occurring.

Oregon and South Dakota are the closest to falling off the list.  Oregon, if Smith gets only third-tier opponents; South Dakota, if Johnson decides to run.

[Conan]

Wow... Larry Sabato came up with a list of seats anyone on here could have last december when Johnson had his malfunction.

[DownWithTheLeft]

My Top 10:

1. Louisiana
2. Colorado
3. New Hampshire
4. Virginia
5. South Dakota
6. Maine
7. New Jersey
8. Minnesota
9. Oregon
10. Montana

I'll elaborate on a specific race if someone would like

[Jaggerjack]

My Top 10:

1. Louisiana
2. Colorado
3. New Hampshire
4. Virginia
5. South Dakota
6. Maine
7. New Jersey
8. Minnesota
9. Oregon
10. Montana

I'll elaborate on a specific race if someone would like

Please elaborate Jersey and Montana. IMO, Baucus is (as of right now) in no danger whatsoever.

[TheresNoMoney]

1) New Hampshire
2) Colorado
3) Louisiana
4) Virginia (John Warner is definitely going to retire)
5) Minnesota
6) Maine
7) Oregon
North Carolina
9) South Dakota
10)  Nebraska (Hagel will likely retire)

The other states to look out for are New Mexico (if Domenici retires) and Idaho (if Larry Craig retires).

[Keystone Phil]

The other states to look out for are New Mexico (if Domenici retires) and Idaho (if Larry Craig retires).

Yeah, Idaho swinging...in a Presidential election year. 

[Jaggerjack]

ROFL Idaho'll never elect a Democratic senator, at least not in the near future.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Please elaborate Jersey and Montana. IMO, Baucus is (as of right now) in no danger whatsoever.

New Jersey will be a close race because it always is, this is not to say by any stretch I believe the Republicans will win, however, like always they will get there hopes up about the race and it will be competitive, something like a 52-47.

In Montana, I still believe Racicot will jump into this race and make it competitive.  Otherwise, cross it off the map.

[TheresNoMoney]

ROFL Idaho'll never elect a Democratic senator, at least not in the near future.

It's definitely highly unlikely.

[Verily]

In order of likelihood to change hands:

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Louisiana
4. Maine
5. Nebraska (If Kerrey runs)
6. Minnesota
7. Virginia
8. North Carolina
9. South Dakota (If Johnson retires, but Herseth is still very likely to hold)
10. Oregon (Assuming no decent challengers emerge, as looks likely)
11. New Mexico

The rest aren't even worth discussing short of an event of seismic proportions. (These here are the Toss-up, Lean and Likely seats. New Hampshire and Colorado are both Lean Dem despite being Republican-held; Louisiana, Maine and Nebraska are Toss-ups; Minnesota, Virginia and North Carolina are Leans and South Dakota, Oregon and New Mexico are Likelies.)

[Conan]

Please elaborate Jersey and Montana. IMO, Baucus is (as of right now) in no danger whatsoever.

New Jersey will be a close race because it always is, this is not to say by any stretch I believe the Republicans will win, however, like always they will get there hopes up about the race and it will be competitive, something like a 52-47.

In Montana, I still believe Racicot will jump into this race and make it competitive.  Otherwise, cross it off the map.

I wouldn't say last year's election was close at 53-45 but I may be wrong here. Anyway, the last close senate election was 2000 which was 51-47. You're also not going to get a close election here on a presidential year, with the current environment, and no serious GOP senate candidates.

Lautenberg: 58
Doherty: 40

Lautenberg: 55
Estrabrook: 43

Lautenberg: 55
Pennacchio: 42

[SPC]

In order of likelihood to change hands:

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Louisiana
4. Maine
5. Nebraska (If Kerrey runs)
6. Minnesota
7. Virginia
8. North Carolina
9. South Dakota (If Johnson retires, but Herseth is still very likely to hold)
10. Oregon (Assuming no decent challengers emerge, as looks likely)
11. New Mexico

The rest aren't even worth discussing short of an event of seismic proportions. (These here are the Toss-up, Lean and Likely seats. New Hampshire and Colorado are both Lean Dem despite being Republican-held; Louisiana, Maine and Nebraska are Toss-ups; Minnesota, Virginia and North Carolina are Leans and South Dakota, Oregon and New Mexico are Likelies.)

I think you are being a bit optimistic in New Hampshire and Colorado. Sure, both the Democatic challengers have a narrow advantage, but to call the Lean Dem is too optimistic. In New hampshire, Shaheen hasn't decided to run yet, and Sununu leads his other opponents. In Colorado, it is a real swing state, and I doubt the margins for either candidate will be greater than 5%. Likewise, Hagel hasn't laid out his plans yet, and Bruning could very well win. Feel free to criticize me, but I was just giving my opinion.

[Verily]

In order of likelihood to change hands:

1. New Hampshire
2. Colorado
3. Louisiana
4. Maine
5. Nebraska (If Kerrey runs)
6. Minnesota
7. Virginia
8. North Carolina
9. South Dakota (If Johnson retires, but Herseth is still very likely to hold)
10. Oregon (Assuming no decent challengers emerge, as looks likely)
11. New Mexico

The rest aren't even worth discussing short of an event of seismic proportions. (These here are the Toss-up, Lean and Likely seats. New Hampshire and Colorado are both Lean Dem despite being Republican-held; Louisiana, Maine and Nebraska are Toss-ups; Minnesota, Virginia and North Carolina are Leans and South Dakota, Oregon and New Mexico are Likelies.)

I think you are being a bit optimistic in New Hampshire and Colorado. Sure, both the Democatic challengers have a narrow advantage, but to call the Lean Dem is too optimistic. In New hampshire, Shaheen hasn't decided to run yet, and Sununu leads his other opponents. In Colorado, it is a real swing state, and I doubt the margins for either candidate will be greater than 5%. Likewise, Hagel hasn't laid out his plans yet, and Bruning could very well win. Feel free to criticize me, but I was just giving my opinion.

Sununu trailed Marchand significantly in the one poll of the two of them, and Marchand doesn't even have statewide name recognition. As for Colorado, Schaffer is not a very strong candidate, but Udall is, and Colorado has certainly shown a recent penchant for electing Democrats.

Bruning could win in Nebraska, and probably would against not-Kerrey, but it would be a toss-up with Bruning v Kerrey. Hagel is almost certainly not running for reelection, I think (of course it's Safe if he is, bar Hagel v Kerrey, in which case it's Likely). If Hagel runs again but is upended in the GOP primary by Bruning, Kerrey is favored.

[Conan]

I think you are being a bit optimistic in New Hampshire and Colorado. Sure, both the Democatic challengers have a narrow advantage, but to call the Lean Dem is too optimistic. In New hampshire, Shaheen hasn't decided to run yet, and Sununu leads his other opponents. In Colorado, it is a real swing state, and I doubt the margins for either candidate will be greater than 5%. Likewise, Hagel hasn't laid out his plans yet, and Bruning could very well win. Feel free to criticize me, but I was just giving my opinion.

NH is def. lean dem right now.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Please elaborate Jersey and Montana. IMO, Baucus is (as of right now) in no danger whatsoever.

New Jersey will be a close race because it always is, this is not to say by any stretch I believe the Republicans will win, however, like always they will get there hopes up about the race and it will be competitive, something like a 52-47.

In Montana, I still believe Racicot will jump into this race and make it competitive.  Otherwise, cross it off the map.

I wouldn't say last year's election was close at 53-45 but I may be wrong here. Anyway, the last close senate election was 2000 which was 51-47. You're also not going to get a close election here on a presidential year, with the current environment, and no serious GOP senate candidates.

Lautenberg: 58
Doherty: 40

Lautenberg: 55
Estrabrook: 43

Lautenberg: 55
Pennacchio: 42

I am still operating on the "less hype, more sucess" theory for NJ Senate races.  Ex. See Franks 2000 and Kean Jr. 2006

[Person Man]

I wonder what we were thinking in the first summer of the last cycle. I knew that the dems should pick up at least 3 senate seats by September, but until then, the only aspirations I had for the national democrats was that they could keep enough senate seats for a fillibuster, without having to rely on Ben Nelson or Mark Pryor.