New Hampshire

[Smash255]

At the moment 27 people have NH going Republican in 08, granted some of them aren't completely serious predictions, but 20 or so probably are.  So what exactly makes some of you people think that under the current climate, with how NH has been trending, and election results last year that make what happened in Ohio look good for the GOP, and with its incumbent Senator trailing in polls by upwards of 20 points,  that the state will go GOP or even has a decent shot of going GOP next year???

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While I have the Granite State as a Democratic tossup, I'll answer.

A lot depends on what the candidates and issues end up being.  It's still 16 months till the General election.  It's entirely possible that Iraq will no longer be a major  issue, especially if the GOP nominates Romney or Thompson, neither of whom has anything to do with the current mess except being in the same party as Bush.  Politics of the Granite State have historically been seen as somewhat more economically centered than the nation as a whole.  If the Democrats nominate someone who pledges to raise taxes like Mondale and Edwards, New Hampshire could easily slip into the GOP column.  In short while the Dems are definitely favored in New Hampshire, it is not a lock for them.  If you think that conditions 16 months from now will be more favorable for the GOP than they are today, putting New Hampshire in the GOP column is perfectly reasonable.

[poughies]

Clinton the candidate, the state won't be an issue..... either Edwards (especially) or Obama it could be an issue. ...


Don't forget the senate race which will have an effect.

[TheresNoMoney]

The Dem candidate will win. I'm very confident of that.

[Hash]

At the moment 27 people have NH going Republican in 08, granted some of them aren't completely serious predictions, but 20 or so probably are.  So what exactly makes some of you people think that under the current climate, with how NH has been trending, and election results last year that make what happened in Ohio look good for the GOP, and with its incumbent Senator trailing in polls by upwards of 20 points,  that the state will go GOP or even has a decent shot of going GOP next year???

I have New Hampshire going GOP. The reason for that is that I believe that it is one of the few states in the midwestern states that could swing to Giuliani if he is the republican nominee. I know that even with Giuliani as the GOP nominee, many people have all of the midwestern states going democratic, but I disagree. I believe that Giuliani would pick up at least one and maybe two midwestern states if he is the GOP nominee. I think that New Hampshire could be one of those few states.

Yes, but in 2006, the Democrats gained NH's 2CDs, Lynch was re-elected in a landslide, and Democrats won control of both state houses for the first time since the late 1800s.

[Jaggerjack]

At the moment 27 people have NH going Republican in 08, granted some of them aren't completely serious predictions, but 20 or so probably are.  So what exactly makes some of you people think that under the current climate, with how NH has been trending, and election results last year that make what happened in Ohio look good for the GOP, and with its incumbent Senator trailing in polls by upwards of 20 points,  that the state will go GOP or even has a decent shot of going GOP next year???

I have New Hampshire going GOP. The reason for that is that I believe that it is one of the few states in the midwestern states that could swing to Giuliani if he is the republican nominee. I know that even with Giuliani as the GOP nominee, many people have all of the midwestern states going democratic, but I disagree. I believe that Giuliani would pick up at least one and maybe two midwestern states if he is the GOP nominee. I think that New Hampshire could be one of those few states.

New Hampshire's a midwestern state? Wow, I never knew that. Being directly north of Massachusetts, I always thought it was in Northern New England! How wrong I was.

[Gustaf]

At the moment 27 people have NH going Republican in 08, granted some of them aren't completely serious predictions, but 20 or so probably are.  So what exactly makes some of you people think that under the current climate, with how NH has been trending, and election results last year that make what happened in Ohio look good for the GOP, and with its incumbent Senator trailing in polls by upwards of 20 points,  that the state will go GOP or even has a decent shot of going GOP next year???

I have New Hampshire going GOP. The reason for that is that I believe that it is one of the few states in the midwestern states that could swing to Giuliani if he is the republican nominee. I know that even with Giuliani as the GOP nominee, many people have all of the midwestern states going democratic, but I disagree. I believe that Giuliani would pick up at least one and maybe two midwestern states if he is the GOP nominee. I think that New Hampshire could be one of those few states.

I think you will have to tell me who the Democratic vice-presidential candidate in 1988 was in order to make up for the mistake of calling New Hampshire a Midwestern state.

[Smash255]

At the moment 27 people have NH going Republican in 08, granted some of them aren't completely serious predictions, but 20 or so probably are.  So what exactly makes some of you people think that under the current climate, with how NH has been trending, and election results last year that make what happened in Ohio look good for the GOP, and with its incumbent Senator trailing in polls by upwards of 20 points,  that the state will go GOP or even has a decent shot of going GOP next year???

I have New Hampshire going GOP. The reason for that is that I believe that it is one of the few states in the midwestern states that could swing to Giuliani if he is the republican nominee. I know that even with Giuliani as the GOP nominee, many people have all of the midwestern states going democratic, but I disagree. I believe that Giuliani would pick up at least one and maybe two midwestern states if he is the GOP nominee. I think that New Hampshire could be one of those few states.

Yes, but in 2006, the Democrats gained NH's 2CDs, Lynch was re-elected in a landslide, and Democrats won control of both state houses for the first time since the late 1800s.

Not to mention Rudy's views on Iraq  and New Hampshire are about as bad of a fit with the state as a liberal black guy with white Mississippi voters

[Gustaf]

At the moment 27 people have NH going Republican in 08, granted some of them aren't completely serious predictions, but 20 or so probably are.  So what exactly makes some of you people think that under the current climate, with how NH has been trending, and election results last year that make what happened in Ohio look good for the GOP, and with its incumbent Senator trailing in polls by upwards of 20 points,  that the state will go GOP or even has a decent shot of going GOP next year???

I have New Hampshire going GOP. The reason for that is that I believe that it is one of the few states in the midwestern states that could swing to Giuliani if he is the republican nominee. I know that even with Giuliani as the GOP nominee, many people have all of the midwestern states going democratic, but I disagree. I believe that Giuliani would pick up at least one and maybe two midwestern states if he is the GOP nominee. I think that New Hampshire could be one of those few states.

Yes, but in 2006, the Democrats gained NH's 2CDs, Lynch was re-elected in a landslide, and Democrats won control of both state houses for the first time since the late 1800s.

Not to mention Rudy's views on Iraq  and New Hampshire are about as bad of a fit with the state as a liberal black guy with white Mississippi voters

To be fair, we can't be sure exactly where New Hampshire stands in a presidential election right now. Sure, 2006 was a major landslide for the Democrats there, but it's only one election and someone like Guliani or Romney should do better there than Bush did. I would certainly expect New Hampshire to go Democratic, but it isn't a safe call right now.

[MasterJedi]

Only Giuliani has a chance to win it, every other Republican will more than likely lose it.

[AndrewTX]

New Hampshire aint trending to the Republicans anytime soon. It'll soon vote in step with the rest of New England thanks to the Bush administration.

[Smash255]

At the moment 27 people have NH going Republican in 08, granted some of them aren't completely serious predictions, but 20 or so probably are.  So what exactly makes some of you people think that under the current climate, with how NH has been trending, and election results last year that make what happened in Ohio look good for the GOP, and with its incumbent Senator trailing in polls by upwards of 20 points,  that the state will go GOP or even has a decent shot of going GOP next year???

I have New Hampshire going GOP. The reason for that is that I believe that it is one of the few states in the midwestern states that could swing to Giuliani if he is the republican nominee. I know that even with Giuliani as the GOP nominee, many people have all of the midwestern states going democratic, but I disagree. I believe that Giuliani would pick up at least one and maybe two midwestern states if he is the GOP nominee. I think that New Hampshire could be one of those few states.

Yes, but in 2006, the Democrats gained NH's 2CDs, Lynch was re-elected in a landslide, and Democrats won control of both state houses for the first time since the late 1800s.

Not to mention Rudy's views on Iraq  and New Hampshire are about as bad of a fit with the state as a liberal black guy with white Mississippi voters

To be fair, we can't be sure exactly where New Hampshire stands in a presidential election right now. Sure, 2006 was a major landslide for the Democrats there, but it's only one election and someone like Guliani or Romney should do better there than Bush did. I would certainly expect New Hampshire to go Democratic, but it isn't a safe call right now.

Giuliani's rhetoric on Iraq pretty much dismisses any real shot he has there.  As far as Romney, he may have appealed there a few years ago, but he has flip flopped his way into being an arch conservative, so that ends his chances right there.  2006 was of course helped out by the national climate and having an insanely popular Gov in Lynch at the top of the ticket.  However, when you look at how the state overall shapes up, the issues, and the fact the incumbent GOP Senator is absolutely getting demolished against his most likley 08 opponent shows things are very bad for the GOP in the state.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

NH could go either way but dem is more likely.

[gorkay]

From what I've heard lately, it's trending strongly Democratic. But of course that could change over the course of the next thirteen months.

[Verily]

Many of those predictions are from the Jamespol circle-jerk:

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=10145

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The simple fact of the matter is that the latest SUSA poll shows Romney/Rudy essentially tied with Hillary in the state.

2006 was a phenomenal year for New Hampshire Democrats, but it was clearly a landslide-style abberation like the GOP had in 1984 Connecticut or 1990 New Jersey.  Democrats won everything in NH last year because of the straight ticket lever.  It would be entirely unfathomable for Republicans to not make solid gains across the state next year, since a Presidential race will top the ballot instead of a runaway Lynch re-election bid.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Usually each time when I update my prediction map, New Hampshire is the state that I tend to change the most. On my prediction map now, I believe I have it in the Dem's column. With my prediction being a Democratic edge. However, I believe that if Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney wins the Republican Nomination it could go into the GOP column for the first time since 2000.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I think New Hampshire is firmly on the Democratic side.  They are very anti-war there, and the only GOP candidate who is anti-war is Paul, who won't get nominated.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think New Hampshire is firmly on the Democratic side.  They are very anti-war there, and the only GOP candidate who is anti-war is Paul, who won't get nominated.

Exactly. A pro-war Bush supporter like Guiliani, Romney or Thompson is not going to win here.

[auburntiger]

I think New Hampshire is firmly on the Democratic side.  They are very anti-war there, and the only GOP candidate who is anti-war is Paul, who won't get nominated.

Exactly. A pro-war Bush supporter like Guiliani, Romney or Thompson is not going to win here.

I get the impression that NH is economicaly conservative socially liberal, but not totally anti-war, just anti-Bush and the Iraq war. If we had never gone into Iraq and instead just stuck with the mission of finding and killing Osama bin Laden, I think NH would be what it was in 2000, a pure swing state at mimnimum slightly GOP lean?

[TheresNoMoney]

I get the impression that NH is economicaly conservative socially liberal, but not totally anti-war, just anti-Bush and the Iraq war. If we had never gone into Iraq and instead just stuck with the mission of finding and killing Osama bin Laden, I think NH would be what it was in 2000, a pure swing state at mimnimum slightly GOP lean?

I would say economically moderate, socially liberal, and very anti-Iraq War (and pretty anti-war in general).

The state is trending heavily towards the Democrats no matter how you swing it. If Iraq War had never happened, it would be a swing state/slight Dem lean.

[micheal_warren]

I  personally believe that the Democrats will win NH in 2008!