AL PrimR: Capital Survey Research Center: Fred Thompson takes the lead

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Alabama President by Capital Survey Research Center on 2007-07-19

Summary: Giuliani: 20%, McCain: 11%, Romney: 5%, Other: 41%, Undecided: 23%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Fred Thompson: 34%

[Tender Branson]

Fred Thompson is strenghtening his image as candidate with the most appeal in the Southern States with this poll. Romney is weak in the South. McCain and Giuliani are faltering in the South, clearly seen when you look at the FL polling page. Thompson is also making inroads to the midwest (OH, WI, IL, MO, KY etc.) and NV is also a fertile ground for Thompson.

What does it mean ? Romney is doing well in IA and NH, but doesn´t move ahead in the South.

Giuliani is weak in the early states, slumping in the South, but strong among Republicans in Kerry states like the West coast, PA, NY etc.

McCain I can say currently leads nowhere but back home in AZ.

A lot of states incl big delegate states like CA, favoring Giuliani will hold their primaries on the Supertuesday - Feb. 5, as well as a lot of Southern States, benefitting Thompson.

It can also become a 3 way race if there´s a snowball-effect after Romney winning in IA and NH.

[Mr. Morden]

A lot of states incl big delegate states like CA, favoring Giuliani will hold their primaries on the Supertuesday - Feb. 5, as well as a lot of Southern States, benefitting Thompson.

The thing is though, CA and NY have more delegates between them than all of the Southern states voting on Feb. 5th combined.  I think the list of Feb. 5th states clearly favors Giuliani.  If he wins CA, NY, NJ, and just a couple of others (say CO or IL), then I think he builds a clear delegate lead, even if Thompson sweeps the South.  But Giuliani's problem is that he has to at least do well enough in the states that vote in January that his leads in places like CA doesn't collapse.