Possible special election in SC-1

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While by no means certain, there could shortly be a special election in the 1st district of South Carolina.  Treasurer Ravenel has resigned his office and the General Assembly will meet in special session on August 3 to elect a successor.  Among those mentioned as possible replacements is Henry Brown of the 1st District.  According to Ron Shealy (a political consultant who has run campaigns for many South Carolina Republicans, including Brown's Congressional campaigns), while Brown's focus right now is on running for a fifth term in 2008, he has not indicated that he would turn down the office if the General Assembly calls on him.

(link to story)

Personal analysis
Would he take the job?
Thanks to the racial gerrymander that created the 6th District. the 1st District is safely Republican, so Brown need not worry about giving the Democrats a chance to pick up a seat. Brown is 71 and is looking at three or more years of being a member of the minority  if he stays in the U.S. House.  Since the Treasurer is on the Budget and Control Board, if Brown were to move into that office, he'd have some real power.  He'd also be easily elected in 2010 for another term if he wants to retire from politics at age 80 rather than age 75.  In short, if Brown is offered the position I think he'll accept it.

Will he be offered the job?
Brown is a good compromise candidate for the pro- and anti-Sanford forces in the Assembly, as he's been able to avoid that tussle.  The Budget and Control Board is often a tug of war between the Assembly and the Governor, even when his name isn't Sanford.  Interim Treasurer Wingate is seen as Sanford's man (If he weren't, would Sanford have named him as Interim Treasuer?) and I doubt if the Assembly will accept him for the permanent position for just that reason.  The other three names being mentioned at the moment, Rep. Ballentine and Chellis and Sen. Ryberg all have their pluses and minuses politically.  Ryberg's run twice for the Treasurer's post, but lost in the primary each time.  Worse, being in the Senate hurts him.  The Assembly will vote as a single body and there are only 44 Senators versus 123 Representatives right now.  (2 Senate seats and 1 House seat are in the middle of special elections triggered by people who resigned after the regular session to take jobs that would conflict with staying in the Assembly.)  If the House favors one of its own, Ballentine or Chellis are the favorites.  Ballentine is a bank executive in his 30's and only in his second term.  Moving into the Treasurer's position will give him a good base from which to seek higher office, so electing him could well be annointing a future Governor, and so his candidacy will likely depend on whether the Assembly thinks he would be a good Governor from their point of view.  Chellis is slighty older, 40, and a CPA in his fifth House  term.  He  might favor offering Brown the job, so that he can seek Brown's current office in a special election, as I believe he lives in the district.

Too soon to say that Brown will be the next Treasurer, but I think the chance is sufficiently greater than 0 that politicians who were interested in running for the 1st District when Brown retired would do well to dust off their Rolodexes between now and August 3.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Bush won SC-1 61%-39% in 2004 and 59%-38% in 2000. 

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Granted, SC-1 is in no danger of being lost by the GOP no matter what Brown decides.  However, having a younger incumbent might affect how many Republicans the General Assembly sticks in the district when it comes time to reapportion.

(The State)

Wingate and Ballentine have definitely decided that they won't seek the Treasurer's post.
Ryberg and Chellis are actively campaigning.
No new word on Brown.

[CARLHAYDEN]

While by no means certain, there could shortly be a special election in the 1st district of South Carolina.  Treasurer Ravenel has resigned his office and the General Assembly will meet in special session on August 3 to elect a successor.  Among those mentioned as possible replacements is Henry Brown of the 1st District.  According to Ron Shealy (a political consultant who has run campaigns for many South Carolina Republicans, including Brown's Congressional campaigns), while Brown's focus right now is on running for a fifth term in 2008, he has not indicated that he would turn down the office if the General Assembly calls on him.

(link to story)

Personal analysis
Would he take the job?
Thanks to the racial gerrymander that created the 6th District. the 1st District is safely Republican, so Brown need not worry about giving the Democrats a chance to pick up a seat. Brown is 71 and is looking at three or more years of being a member of the minority  if he stays in the U.S. House.  Since the Treasurer is on the Budget and Control Board, if Brown were to move into that office, he'd have some real power.  He'd also be easily elected in 2010 for another term if he wants to retire from politics at age 80 rather than age 75.  In short, if Brown is offered the position I think he'll accept it.

Will he be offered the job?
Brown is a good compromise candidate for the pro- and anti-Sanford forces in the Assembly, as he's been able to avoid that tussle.  The Budget and Control Board is often a tug of war between the Assembly and the Governor, even when his name isn't Sanford.  Interim Treasurer Wingate is seen as Sanford's man (If he weren't, would Sanford have named him as Interim Treasuer?) and I doubt if the Assembly will accept him for the permanent position for just that reason.  The other three names being mentioned at the moment, Rep. Ballentine and Chellis and Sen. Ryberg all have their pluses and minuses politically.  Ryberg's run twice for the Treasurer's post, but lost in the primary each time.  Worse, being in the Senate hurts him.  The Assembly will vote as a single body and there are only 44 Senators versus 123 Representatives right now.  (2 Senate seats and 1 House seat are in the middle of special elections triggered by people who resigned after the regular session to take jobs that would conflict with staying in the Assembly.)  If the House favors one of its own, Ballentine or Chellis are the favorites.  Ballentine is a bank executive in his 30's and only in his second term.  Moving into the Treasurer's position will give him a good base from which to seek higher office, so electing him could well be annointing a future Governor, and so his candidacy will likely depend on whether the Assembly thinks he would be a good Governor from their point of view.  Chellis is slighty older, 40, and a CPA in his fifth House  term.  He  might favor offering Brown the job, so that he can seek Brown's current office in a special election, as I believe he lives in the district.

Too soon to say that Brown will be the next Treasurer, but I think the chance is sufficiently greater than 0 that politicians who were interested in running for the 1st District when Brown retired would do well to dust off their Rolodexes between now and August 3.

Thanks for the information and analysis.

[Mr.Phips]

This is actually a district that Democrats would be wise to contest in a special election.  Yeah, the district went for Bush by 61%-39% in 2004, but that is the exact same margin that John Kerry won MA-05 by and Republicans seem to be contesting that.

Also, as recently as 1998, this district voted for Mark Hodges and Fritz Hollings.

[Verily]

This is actually a district that Democrats would be wise to contest in a special election.  Yeah, the district went for Bush by 61%-39% in 2004, but that is the exact same margin that John Kerry won MA-05 by and Republicans seem to be contesting that.

Also, as recently as 1998, this district voted for Mark Hodges and Fritz Hollings.

"Contest" just means run a candidate - of course the Democrats will run a candidate. The era of letting safe districts slide seems to be over nationally. The Republicans haven't a hope of winning MA-05, and the Democrats haven't a hope of winning SC-01.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, the district went for Bush by 61%-39% in 2004, but that is the exact same margin that John Kerry won MA-05 by and Republicans seem to be contesting that.

This would be news to me!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This is actually a district that Democrats would be wise to contest in a special election.  Yeah, the district went for Bush by 61%-39% in 2004, but that is the exact same margin that John Kerry won MA-05 by and Republicans seem to be contesting that.

Also, as recently as 1998, this district voted for Mark Hodges and Fritz Hollings.

Ah, okay, never mind, then.  The GOP indeed has done the bare minimum here of finding someone to fill out a few papers.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

This is actually a district that Democrats would be wise to contest in a special election.  Yeah, the district went for Bush by 61%-39% in 2004, but that is the exact same margin that John Kerry won MA-05 by and Republicans seem to be contesting that.

Also, as recently as 1998, this district voted for Mark Hodges and Fritz Hollings.

Ernest Hollings was a Charlestonian.  In 1998, Beasley had alienated his base by supporting the removal of the Confederate flag from the State House building (not just the dome, but also inside the House and Senate chambers).  Unfortunately, the NAACP won't be satisfied until they've expunged not only those mentions of the Confederacy that extol it, but even treatments such as the current memorial on the State House grounds that are neutral and even-handed.

Finally, the re-gerrymander after the 2000 census exacerbated the partisan bias between the 1st and 6th districts.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wherever a special election arises, I'd hope regardless of its partisan preferences, whether strong or lean, that the challenging party puts up a spirited fight for it

Dave

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Looks like Brown still has an outside chance at the job, but only if none of the three principal candidates manages to win a majority in the Assembly on the first couple of ballots.

(The State)

There are three principal candidates now, all Republican.  In addition to Rep. Chellis and Sen. Ryberg, Sanford has found a stalking horse of his own to push.  That stalking horse is Tim Scott, Chairman of the Charleston County Council. He's also managed to get the Democratic Legislative Black Caucus all in a tizzy because he's a Black Republican.  Smart money says that Chellis likely will win, and since he's the only Representative in the race, in a election where 122 of the 167 votes to be cast on Friday will be from Representatives, but there aren't 84 House Republicans, so it isn't a lock.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No one even bothered to nominate Sanford's candidate Tim Scott

Chellis easily won by a vote of 122-24 over Ryberg.

The House voted 99-7 for Chellis, the Senate 23-17.

(House Journal)