Democratic internal-Lake: Gordan Smith is heavy favorite against Novick

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gordan Smith    50%
Steve Novick     27%

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/poll-smith-leads-novick-by-23-points-2007-07-25.html

[Jaggerjack]

Shame. I just wish we had a good challenger to knock off Smith. Looks like it'll never come.

[Sam Spade]

Democrats are right now saying that State House Speaker Jeff Merkley will run, but considering their success so far, one wonders.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Democrats are right now saying that State House Speaker Jeff Merkley will run, but considering their success so far, one wonders.

The poll seems to suggest that Novick is better known than the House Speaker.

Probably better liked, too.  I mean, when was the last time you heard of there being a popular Speaker of the House?

[bullmoose88]

Smith is just at the 50% make or break line for incumbents...he isn't out of the woods yet unfortunately.

[TheresNoMoney]

Novick won't be the candidate.

I rank this as only the Democrats' 4th or 5th best pickup.

[Smash255]

GOP caught a big break when the big names turned this one down.  Smith has a large lead, but thats not to be unexpected with the low voter id numbers.  He is right at that 50% mark.  If its Novick or someone else $$ will be a big issue.  If the Dems can raise a decent amount of $$ for this race and really increase the name recognition Smith could be in a bit of trouble, almost 50% were not committed either way in order to support Smith or not.

[Sam Spade]

I'm still trying to figure out why people are buying this poll's assertion that Smith is at 50%. This is still a Dem internal poll, last time I checked.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe now, but 1 year from now on Smith will be Allenized and will be barely ahead of his Democratic challenger ... + add the 5-10 Mio. $ the DSCC will pump into Oregon next year.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Maybe now, but 1 year from now on Smith will be Allenized and will be barely ahead of his Democratic challenger ... + add the 5-10 Mio. $ the DSCC will pump into Oregon next year.

You think Smith will say something along the lines of macaca?

Further, there is no way the DSCC will be caught dead pouring millions into this race unless Novick, or whomever the Democratic nominee winds up being, can close a good chunk of the gap on his own first.

[Tender Branson]

Maybe now, but 1 year from now on Smith will be Allenized and will be barely ahead of his Democratic challenger ... + add the 5-10 Mio. $ the DSCC will pump into Oregon next year.

You think Smith will say something along the lines of macaca?

No

You must be logged in to read this quote.

... which I´m anticipating. Maybe Smith will lead by 5% in a year but not more. The gap will be closed by the Dem candidate by August 2008, without Smith macacaring around ...

[Tender Branson]

Maybe now, but 1 year from now on Smith will be Allenized and will be barely ahead of his Democratic challenger ... + add the 5-10 Mio. $ the DSCC will pump into Oregon next year.

You think Smith will say something along the lines of macaca?

No

You must be logged in to read this quote.

... which I´m anticipating. Maybe Smith will lead by 5% in a year but not more. The gap will be closed by the Dem candidate by August 2008, without Smith macacaring around ...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Smith has coopted like Susan Collins alot of the Democratic agenda from the war to stem cell research. Not to mention the gay marriage ban in OR affecting the top of the ticket. If a top notch candidate like Bill Bradbury couldn't take Smith down in 2002 and he was more vulnerable, as of now, I don't see the dems taking this seat.

[Tender Branson]

Smith has coopted like Susan Collins alot of the Democratic agenda from the war to stem cell research. Not to mention the gay marriage ban in OR affecting the top of the ticket. If a top notch candidate like Bill Bradbury couldn't take Smith down in 2002 and he was more vulnerable, as of now, I don't see the dems taking this seat.

2002 was hell of a Republican year not to forget. Smith was more popular than today I tend to say - 2008 he´s weaker. 2008 the DSCC is better funded and the overall climate is better. And the presidential coattails may help him + Oregon's trending more towards the Democrats recently.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Smith is also well funded over his Democratic challengers as well. Had DeFazio and Blumear had jumped in, I would of had this lean Democrat. In the poll, Steve Novick and Merkeley has no name recognition. Smith's approvals are hovering around 50%, I see Smith as being vulnerable, but not beatable.

[Alcon]

I see Smith as being vulnerable, but not beatable.

Thank you for your insight.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I mean to say against 2nd tier candidates he is not as beatable as top tier candidates like blumear or Defazio. Things can change especially in a down GOP year, we will have to see.

[Sam Spade]

I see Smith as being vulnerable, but not beatable.

Thank you for your insight.

Insight is something sorely lacking from this thread (for the most part).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think we will gain more insight on this race when a reptible poll comes out. So, far only internal stuff has come on this race Grove Insight and Lake Research. I think this is a lack of polling from reptible sources on this race.

[HardRCafé]

If a top notch candidate like Bill Bradbury couldn't take Smith down in 2002 and he was more vulnerable, as of now, I don't see the dems taking this seat.

In 2002, Chellie Pingree was supposed to be top notch; Bill Bradbury was supposed to be better than nothing.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I see both of them winning with 55%  of the vote. The challengers aren't strong enough yet to knock the incumbants down who coopted much of the Democratic agenda.