Survey USA: Norm Coleman's approval at 43%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=ff954ea5-ea5f-49b1-a582-9dd73e4855c7

[Democratic Hawk]

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think Iraq is killing this warmonger.

[Sam Spade]

Considering there's no trend line indicating any downward movement and this is quite a sharp shift, my gut says outlier.  The poll being summer polling strengthens that thought.

However, we'll really know (for sure) in the next couple of months.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I can't believe it's that high, after his Oscar the Grouch escapade where he went rooting through the trash looking for a lamp.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The local media has been ravaging him on Iraq, so this wouldn't surprise me if true, and it makes me happy.

I can't believe it's that high, after his Oscar the Grouch escapade where he went rooting through the trash looking for a lamp.

What happened? I didn't hear of that.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What happened? I didn't hear of that.

Norm Coleman was seen with a big Band-Aid on his forehead, and it turns out he got it while rummaging through a dumpster searching for a lamp that his wife had accidentally thrown away.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Haha. That's funny. I can't believe the Star Tribune didn't give that coverage.

[Verily]

Considering there's no trend line indicating any downward movement and this is quite a sharp shift, my gut says outlier.  The poll being summer polling strengthens that thought.

However, we'll really know (for sure) in the next couple of months.

53-51-48-43 isn't a downward trend? It wasn't downward before April, but that doesn't look like a healthy sign to me.

[12th Doctor]

What happened? I didn't hear of that.

Norm Coleman was seen with a big Band-Aid on his forehead, and it turns out he got it while rummaging through a dumpster searching for a lamp that his wife had accidentally thrown away.

I fail to see what is exceptionally odd about that... which is more than I can say for you.  Either way, my gut says Sam is correct... it wouldn't surprise me if he were in a bit of danger, though considering the state and the climate.  It's a shame though, he is a good Senator.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I fail to see what is exceptionally odd about that...

So you think it's normal for a senator to do a low-budget Oscar the Grouch imitation.

[Conan]

And his dad, iirc, was having sex in a parking lot and was arrested?

It's not a surprise seeing how he's a republican senator in a blue state that he's doing not so great.

[Gabu]

I fail to see what is exceptionally odd about that...

So you think it's normal for a senator to do a low-budget Oscar the Grouch imitation.

How do you propose he retrieve a lamp that was located in a dumpster that his wife presumably wanted?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

How do you propose he retrieve a lamp that was located in a dumpster that his wife presumably wanted?

His wife no longer wanted the lamp. The only person who wanted the broken lamp was Norm "Oscar" Coleman.

[12th Doctor]

I fail to see what is exceptionally odd about that...

So you think it's normal for a senator to do a low-budget Oscar the Grouch imitation.

The lamp right have meant something to him... then again, his wife might have just thrown the thing out thinking it was broken and he was able to fix it... the later has happened in my house before... my mom loves to toss things that show even a little bit of ware, and someone else ends up pulling them out and getting them working again.  Senators are just like you and I in many ways.

[Gabu]

How do you propose he retrieve a lamp that was located in a dumpster that his wife presumably wanted?

His wife no longer wanted the lamp. The only person who wanted the broken lamp was Norm "Oscar" Coleman.

It said his wife accidentally threw it away.

[12th Doctor]

And his dad, iirc, was having sex in a parking lot and was arrested?

Doesn't surprise me.  His family is far from normal, they might as well be circus performers.  Coleman's early life wasn't exactly The Osmond's.

[Alcon]

How do you propose he retrieve a lamp that was located in a dumpster that his wife presumably wanted?

His wife no longer wanted the lamp. The only person who wanted the broken lamp was Norm "Oscar" Coleman.

It said his wife accidentally threw it away.

That is officially the stupidest "scandal" ever.

[12th Doctor]

How do you propose he retrieve a lamp that was located in a dumpster that his wife presumably wanted?

His wife no longer wanted the lamp. The only person who wanted the broken lamp was Norm "Oscar" Coleman.

It said his wife accidentally threw it away.

That is officially the stupidest "scandal" ever.

Well, some people will grab onto anything.

[Alcon]

How do you propose he retrieve a lamp that was located in a dumpster that his wife presumably wanted?

His wife no longer wanted the lamp. The only person who wanted the broken lamp was Norm "Oscar" Coleman.

It said his wife accidentally threw it away.

That is officially the stupidest "scandal" ever.

Well, some people will grab onto anything.

Hey now.  Keep that kind of talk in private messages.

[Smash255]

Considering there's no trend line indicating any downward movement and this is quite a sharp shift, my gut says outlier.  The poll being summer polling strengthens that thought.

However, we'll really know (for sure) in the next couple of months.

He has actually been going downward 53-51-48-43.  This month did see the sharpest drop, but he has been headed down.  Granted the internals tend to have higher margins of error, but the Senate campaigns getting under way could have hurt him, as he saw a rather sharp drop among Democrats

[Tender Branson]

Considering there's no trend line indicating any downward movement and this is quite a sharp shift, my gut says outlier.  The poll being summer polling strengthens that thought.

However, we'll really know (for sure) in the next couple of months.

He has actually been going downward 53-51-48-43.  This month did see the sharpest drop, but he has been headed down.  Granted the internals tend to have higher margins of error, but the Senate campaigns getting under way could have hurt him, as he saw a rather sharp drop among Democrats

The last Rasmussen poll had him ahead of the Franken and Ciresi guys by 10%. This was a few months ago. With his approvals down and the good fundraising by Franken, they might be about tied now ...

[Ban my account ffs!]

Which way does the wind blow this week Norm?

Are you a Democrat?  A Republican?  Whatever the polls say?

Norm Coleman flips and flops like a desperate pan fish on a dock gasping for air.

[Sam Spade]

Considering there's no trend line indicating any downward movement and this is quite a sharp shift, my gut says outlier.  The poll being summer polling strengthens that thought.

However, we'll really know (for sure) in the next couple of months.

53-51-48-43 isn't a downward trend? It wasn't downward before April, but that doesn't look like a healthy sign to me.

You can't just start at one point in the cycle and tell me a trend exists.  Look further.

Consider that the five months before your numbers have hovered between 47%-49% and his disapproval ratings from August of last year have hovered between 41%-44% throughout (with the exception of January, which looks like an obvious outlier).  That's pretty stable.

Thus, it appears like for quite a long while, Coleman's numbers hovered around 48% approve, 42%-43% disapprove.

Taken into context, the 53% and 51% would have originally seemed like possible data points that his numbers were going up.  The 48% number would have maybe indicated a down month or that the 53% and 51% were merely indicating outlier/upper end of the MOE scale.

With the 43% number, we now have a couple of interpretations - 1) trend line downward (your theory); 2) outlier or edge of MOE (interpretation I'm leaning towards).  

Unfortunately, it will take a little while to work the interpretation out, as all of this is quite fluid.  For example, if next month is 49%, it would be likely that my interpretation is correct, but not necessarily so, as later months could establish that 49% is the new high of the MOE.  Or, for example, he could get 45%, which would further establish your theory, but not necessarily so, as later months could establish that the 45%/43% numbers were merely lower ends of MOE (like the 53% and 51%, for example).  Or, if next month's number were, say, 52%, it would lend further credence that this number is a true outlier and that the trend to his numbers is actually going higher.

Add to this the problem of summer polling and we have some real fun at hand.    

Remember, all of this could just be MOE movement, since the MOE is +/- 5%.  Or there may be movement.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Norm Coleman would be so totally and inexorably screwed if it wasn't for the fact that he's up against Al Franken.