Roe v. Wade Hypothetical

[Person Man]

Gee, you just opened a can o' worms, SPC. Perhaps because SCOTUS took a stance on abortion, they will ALWAYS have to take a stance on abortion. If live begins at ciotus or a time before it could be reasonably and reliably interupted from starting, then SCOTUS would have to amend constitutional jurisprudence to either force states to start enforcing their murder laws on abortionists or order federal agents to enforce Article I Sec IV, which guarantees a republican form of government for all American citizens. If life does not begin until quite some time after sex, then abortion bans would be unconstitutional because they either I, are cruel and unusual in their punishment or II, are crimes that can never be proven beyond a reasonable doubt or III, cannot be reasonably enforced without unreasonable searches and seizures or IV they deprive women of their physical persons without adequate compensation.

But just so we are on the same page-

Scalia and Thomas- would amend the constitution to ban abortion

Alito and Roberts- Wants federal neutrality on abortion.

Kenedy- Tends both uphold Roe and uphold regulations that do not pertain to circumstance- Roberts would probably convince him to  concur in part and dissent in part- probably would rewrite jurisdiction to allow for allow bans throughout pregnancy so long as rape, incest,(or unconsented or invalidly consented to sex) self defense (ecotopic pregnancy, credible suicide attempt, diabetes, heart disease) and unforeseen difficulties (Trisomy, Job Loss, Sickness making pregnancy expensive, Permanent Emotional or Physical Maternal  Damage). This would be hard as hell to do, but would pretty much end the abortion debate in this country for a while as our abortion jurisprudence will look like most other anglospheric countries.

Others- will uphold

[Person Man]

Option 2 and giggle manically and watch as the right culture wars alliance falls apart and the left uses the backlash to move america to something resembling sanity.

That wouldn't be a bad idea. But the cost may be too high.

[Person Man]

....or better yet if a swing state like Michigan or Colorado banned abortion one year when the republicans had more power, would a democratic governor grant amnesty to offenders the next? I mean if the courts declared nuetrality on the abortion issue NO ONE would EVER know what the law would be ANYWHERE*

*Except for the Beehive Kingdon, The South and New England

[Person Man]

Option 2 and giggle manically and watch as the right culture wars alliance falls apart and the left uses the backlash to move america to something resembling sanity.

That wouldn't be a bad idea. But the cost may be too high.

Not really. I'm not female and not attracted to the unstable type who'd not be smart enoguh to use birth control/would need to resort to an abortion so zero chance of it affecting me.

Ummm....what about other people?

[Person Man]

Yeah, but then again, Roberts and Alito were mules for the Reagan dynasty(Reagan, Bush, (Gringrich, but that's not an issue here) Bush) before coming to SCOTUS. Souter was always just either a private lawyer or judge and Stevens came about in the time before reactionaries were that powerful.

[Person Man]

Gee...this website is pretty inline with the general american public. 54ish-46ish (though there are a lot of pro-abortion ban democrats and not that many pro-abortion rights republicans here)...although it would be about 57ish-43ish if you calculated the votes of SPC and other social liberal federalists....but is still about in line with Libertarian Red States (like Colorado or Montana) and Weak Blue States (like Deleware or Michigan).

[Person Man]

If Roe was overturned, I think the country map would look like this:

26+D.C. - legal (with 5 in the grey area)
24- illegal  (With 3 in the grey area)

Light Red (mostly states with conservative reputations that have libertarian tendancies)- Abortion legal when need is established- Abortion is legal, but most be approved by two or three physicians who must show that it was needed; would typically come with the same restrictions as the "Red" group. 

Red (Libertarian and Democratic states)-  Abortion is a matter of personal choice, but discouraged- Legal without question, but subject to typical abortion control measures suchs as mandatory counciling, waiting periods and madatory family involvement, if possible with possible restrictions on certain types of second-term abortions.

Dark Red (the most progressive of states)- Abortion would possibly be state funded and would definately be subject to few, if any legal spped bumps.

Light Blue(some conservative swing states and some conservative states that are libertarian)- Illegal but law can be waived in court if evidence is presented to show that an abortion is needed because of an unforeseen complication that arose after birth.

Blue(republican states and democratic states that have a large fundamentalist community)- Illegal with exception of rape, incest or threat to mother's life or possibly if the fetus will not be able to survive much after birth. Would probably be treated as a drug offense or a involuntary manslaughter offense and would be  punished with hard time of the minimal hard time that can be offered to a couple of years. Because there would not be enough exceptions to allow for clinics or ever hospitals to sustain a legal abortion practice, abortions would be done at police stations and clinics inside of the court houses under the supervision and approval of the Sheriff and the DA.

Dark Blue(the most reactionary of states)- Thorughly Illegal. Abortion could be considered a crime no matter what, or have only a "double effect" clause or even just a clause that permits abortion if it is the only way to save maternal life and the fetus is dying anyway, or there might be a rape clause, but not for incest. Abortion would be treated as manslaughter, or even capital murder, if that state kills certain convicts.

[Person Man]

Let's keep this poll going.

[Person Man]

I'd be willing to accept abortion being made a capital crime in exchange for marijuana legalized fully.

...and maybe cloning being allowed.

[Person Man]

No. One goal at a time. but sincr abortion is THAT perhaps marijuana being legalized and an end to FCC decency censorship.

What do you mean?

[Person Man]

That's what I thought. Needed to make sure.

I would have -

- repeal of the "PATRIOT" act
- repeal of the 1937 Marijuana Tax Act and other federal laws that ban pot
- Equal funding for embryonic stem sell research to funding of its "kosher" alternatives.

[Person Man]

Can you come up with a map of what the nation's abortion laws would look like if the federal government declared nuetrality on abortion and refused to take up any cases, legislation, or constitutional amendments on the issue?

Besides #2 on your list you're thinking too small. Also the patriot act is a good thing(compared to the pre-9/11 status quo. Yes the act needs revising but its still needed).

Okay, how about just an end to warrantless wiretapping, Iraq War and attempts to constitutionally recognize homophobic jurisprudence?

[Person Man]

1 No.
2 No.
3 Yes

As long as we have 1.4 billion muslims alive on earth we can't loosen up any on security.

I'm guessing that you are a lot like Joe Lieberman? Not neccesiarily a bad thing.

...and I doubt that Islam is our biggest long term concerned. We have had bigger enemies, lived for 1500 years with these people and we can't just murder 25% of the population.  Dangerous short-term solutions are not preferrable to ones that emphasize long-term assimilation based out weeding out radicals, educating moderates to be more moderate and economic growth.
...and what about the map?

[Person Man]

if Roe was overturned, what do you think the abortion policy map would look like?

[Person Man]

and a life exception isn't an exception. You can kill born live people with the life exception.

[Person Man]

We should really be talking about Planned Parenthood v. Casey...

Of course...but you know what we mean. What do you think will happen if banning abortion becomes a legitimate state interest warranting only a rational-relationship level of review?

Map?

[Person Man]

or just throw out the right to privacy or say that Roe flies against tradition and should get the Bowers standard. My question was how the states would react. Can you answer that?

[Person Man]

Bowers only scrutinizes those that are deeply held in American tradition. They can say that abortion is not part of american tradition and therefore is a behavior that can be prosecuted.


But...what would the map look like?

[Person Man]

Bowers only scrutinizes those that are deeply held in American tradition. They can say that abortion is not part of american tradition and therefore is a behavior that can be prosecuted.


But...what would the map look like?

But Bowers has been overruled by Lawerence...Kennedy used the Heightened rational basis test there...(gays don't get the same type of scrutiny as race or gender, but can something because they're targeted for some sort of exclusion).

Not neccesiarily... it was just overruled in respect to sodomy. It could still be used as a means of due process. Just look at the Washington assisted suicide case.

[Person Man]

Bowers only scrutinizes those that are deeply held in American tradition. They can say that abortion is not part of american tradition and therefore is a behavior that can be prosecuted.


But...what would the map look like?

But Bowers has been overruled by Lawerence...Kennedy used the Heightened rational basis test there...(gays don't get the same type of scrutiny as race or gender, but can something because they're targeted for some sort of exclusion).

Not neccesiarily... it was just overruled in respect to sodomy. It could still be used as a means of due process. Just look at the Washington assisted suicide case.

Well i'd think we'd be looking at it from an equal protection standard...I think it was a mistake to ground abortion in substantive due process...and privacy

Well, I guess if Roe was overturned, this would be the new argument to get the right to have an abortion back into the constitution.

[Person Man]

R-TX?

[Person Man]

Bowers only scrutinizes those that are deeply held in American tradition. They can say that abortion is not part of american tradition and therefore is a behavior that can be prosecuted.


But...what would the map look like?

But Bowers has been overruled by Lawerence...Kennedy used the Heightened rational basis test there...(gays don't get the same type of scrutiny as race or gender, but can something because they're targeted for some sort of exclusion).

Not neccesiarily... it was just overruled in respect to sodomy. It could still be used as a means of due process. Just look at the Washington assisted suicide case.

Well i'd think we'd be looking at it from an equal protection standard...I think it was a mistake to ground abortion in substantive due process...and privacy

Well, I guess if Roe was overturned, this would be the new argument to get the right to have an abortion back into the constitution.

Well yeah...you'd go the Ginsberg route and anchor it in the equal protection clause and give it intermediate scrutiny...higher if ginsberg could ever get sex discrimination on par with race

As a disclaimer, I am pro-life, but apathetic...there are far many more issues I feel like we have to deal with and until we address them, I am somewhat okay to keep them safe, legal, and rare...

But my main concern with getting rid of abortion, and what keeps me apathetic, is that because it has been grounded in privacy, and substantive due process...a reversal of the Roe/Casey line, may erode privacy rights...and that does bother me.

A lot of people are like that. Pro-Life means you want an abortion ban and you don't seem to want that. Maybe you are neither Pro-Life or Pro-Choice.

[Person Man]

Technically, it doesn't.....but we all know what it means on a subjective level.

[Person Man]

Technically, it doesn't.....but we all know what it means on a subjective level.

OK.  Do you have any more illogical statements you would like to present on this thread?  (snarf, snarf)

Some things can't be proven objectively. *shrugs* That doesn't mean they don't exist.

[Person Man]

Option 2 and giggle manically and watch as the right culture wars alliance falls apart and the left uses the backlash to move america to something resembling sanity.

That wouldn't be a bad idea. But the cost may be too high.

I hadn't even thought of that when I voted, but hopefully improvements in the quality of life and standard of living will make abortion less necessary.

...and the general acceptance of illegitimate children into society has helped to reduce the need for abortion. We must walk a fine line between personal responsibility and forgiveness.