SurveyUSA-MO-2008-Governor: Nixon (D) destroys incumbent Blunt (R)

[Tender Branson]

Wow, that´s not what I expected:

Nixon (D) - 57%
Blunt (R) - 38%
Undecided - 5%

"Despite MO GOP Governor Blunt Having Highest Job Approval Since Taking Office, He is Buried If Opposed for Re-Election Today by Democrat Nixon: Missouri Republican Governor Matt Blunt's Job Approval numbers inched into positive territory in July 2007 for the first time since taking office, according to SurveyUSA's monthly tracking poll, a dramatic improvement from the poor marks Missourians have given Blunt in his first term. Today, 48% of Missourians statewide approve of Blunt's performance, 46% disapprove, a Net Job Approval of "Plus 2."

This is the first month Blunt has ever had a "Plus" Net Job Approval. Plus 2 compares with Net Job Approvals of "Minus 30" in March 2006, and Minus 20 or more for most of the months of his administration. Exclusive SurveyUSA tracking data is here. Against this backdrop, Blunt can take no comfort in SurveyUSA's first look-ahead to the 2008 MO governor election. In a head-to-head hypothetical matchup against Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon,  Nixon defeats Blunt 3:2, carrying every part of the state. The survey of 514 Registered Voters statewide was conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV in Kansas City.

Nixon and Blunt are effectively tied among men. But Nixon leads by 37 points among women, a startling gender gap. Nixon leads by 20 points among younger voters, by 18 among older voters. 25% of Missouri Republicans cross-over and vote Democrat in a head-to-head contest today. Independents break 3:2 for Nixon. Blunt carries 67% of the Conservative vote, but loses 73% of the Moderate vote. Blunt runs strongest in the Ozarks, but still trails Nixon by 9 there.

Nixon leads by 17 in greater Kansas City, by 19 in Central Missouri and by 25 points in greater St. Louis. The election is in 467 days, on 11/04/08. Nixon is not yet a declared candidate for office. This poll does not attempt to forecast what will happen on election day. This poll is a snapshot of where a hypothetical head-to-head contest stands today. This is not a survey of "likely voters," this is a survey of "registered voters."

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8384602e-7a93-4779-b82f-bdddb1cd370c

[Alcon]

Now...granted, summer polling, and SurveyUSA, and a thousand other caveats...but damn.

[Tender Branson]

Now...granted, summer polling, and SurveyUSA, and a thousand other caveats...but damn.

Indeed damn. SUSA wasn't this bad when it comes to MO polling in 2004 and 2006. They had Bush up 5 in their last 2004 poll, the same spread Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen had.

In 2006 they had McCaskill up 6 in their last poll, while Rasmussen got this race wrong and had Talent up 1 in their last poll. M-D had McCaskill up 1.

Allthough I can´t believe Nixon is up that much, in my book he´s still ahead by 10-15% right now ...

[Sam Spade]

My guess:

This poll, much like the approval poll, is probably on the edge of MOE or outlier.  Nixon is probably up 10%-15%, and Blunt's approval is probably in the low 40% (maybe 45%) range.  The only good thing Blunt's got in this regard is the upward trend on his approval numbers.

[they don't love you like i love you]

And this is with Blunt's supposed upward trending ratings.

I doubt Nixon's up by that much, or will win by that much, but I am pretty sure that even if he has really improved and continues to improve, Nixon is too strong for Blunt to withstand.

[AndrewTX]

And this is with Blunt's supposed upward trending ratings.

I doubt Nixon's up by that much, or will win by that much, but I am pretty sure that even if he has really improved and continues to improve, Nixon is too strong for Blunt to withstand.

I'm sure his approval ratings are going up, but we all know that it wont stop Nixon. A popular AG is always a tough candidate to go up against, even if your an incumbent.  I could care less if Blunt goes or not though.