2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[Hash]

Any instances in Bayern where the CSU dropped under 50%, or 40%?

[Tender Branson]

Any instances in Bayern where the CSU dropped under 50%, or 40%?

State Elections: Below 50% not since 1966, below 40% 1950 and 1954 only

Federal Elections: Below 50% in 1953, 1998 and 2005, below 40% in 1949 only

A good link with interactive maps:

http://www.statistik.bayern.de/daten/intermaptiv/archiv/home.asp

[Middle-aged Europe]

Any instances in Bayern where the CSU dropped under 50%, or 40%?

State Elections: Below 50% not since 1966, below 40% 1950 and 1954 only

Federal Elections: Below 50% in 1953, 1998 and 2005, below 40% in 1949 only

A good link with interactive maps:

http://www.statistik.bayern.de/daten/intermaptiv/archiv/home.asp

And I would like to add that the CSU existed on such a level in the 1940ies and 1950ies because of the Bayernpartei (Bavaria Party), which was a very similar party (however, not affiliated with the CDU) and the CSU's main rival back then.

During the early 60ies the CSU was able to cripple the Bayernpartei permanently. Since then it has degenerated into a very minor party which holds only a few seats on local level. One of the reasons for the Bayernpartei's decline was the fact that it didn't have a counterpart/ally on federal level as the CSU did.

Nowadays, the Bayernpartei is probably noteworthy for being the only real (albeit minor) secessionist movement in Germany. They advocate for an independent Bavarian nation-state within the European Union.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting news coming out of the Austrian state of Carinthia:

Governor Jörg Haider (BZÖ) may call early state elections in late 2008 instead of the regular elections to be held in early 2009, mainly because of highly positive polling numbers of his BZÖ and (because of) the turmoil in the state SPÖ:

The head of the state SPÖ, Gaby Schauning, is accusing her fellow Klagenfurt City SPÖ chair of voter fraud and asked him to step down, which he refuses, to become Mayor of Klagenfurt in 2009.

The twist is highly beneficial for Haider, because this renegade county chair may very well drag down the whole Social Democratic party and the hopes of Schaunig to become governor next year or in 2009.

The poll numbers for Social Democrats are already down because of that struggle. The matter will be solved in the state party convention in October this year. If Haider calls for elections in late 2008, it would bring the number of state elections in Austria to 3.

Latest Carinthia poll, released today (change compared with 2004 state elections):

BZÖ: 38% (+ 38%)
SPÖ: 34% (- 4.4%)
ÖVP: 11% (- 0.6%)
Greens: 9% (+2.3%)
FPÖ: 8% (- 34.4%)

Note: BZÖ+FPÖ split from the then united FPÖ in 2005. The united FPÖ got 42.4% in the 2004 state elections. So it would translate into a 3.6% gain (BZÖ+FPÖ) since then.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm. Just found out that there are statewide mayoral and town council elections in the state of Burgenland this year, and they are alreadly taking place on October 7. I always thought there are no state-wide elections in Austria this year ...

[Tender Branson]

New polls out:

Bavaria:

CSU: 56%
SPD: 22%
Greens: 9%

FDP: 4%
Freie Wähler: 4%
Left Party: 3%
Others: 2%

The current 2/3-majority of the CSU in the Bavarian Landtag may be history next year if the CSU stays around 55% and the FDP manages to get over the 5% treshold. The Left Party crossing the 5% line for representation in the state parliament is unlikely at the moment, SPD and Greens would have to lose some voters for that ... The election will take place exactly tomorrow in 1 year.

Hesse:

CDU: 43%
SPD: 30%
Greens: 9%
FDP: 8%
Left Party: 5%
Others: 5%

The current CDU absolute majority may also be history next year and a CDU/FDP government is the most likely outcome, because SPD-Green is far behind CDU-FDP and the SPD has further ruled out a coalition with the Left Party.

[Hash]

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What is Freie Wahler? "Free Elections"?
 

[minionofmidas]

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What is Freie Wahler? "Free Elections"?
 

"Free Voters".

[Tender Branson]

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What is Freie Wahler? "Free Elections"?

I would call the "Freie Wähler Bayern" a bunch of people, who are normally running as Independents in community elections, but who are running under some sort of umbrella organisation for statewide elections ...

[Tender Branson]

CSU leadership elections tomorrow. The last poll is out and it shows (about what I predicted earlier):

Huber: 48%
Seehofer: 30%
Pauli:  6%
Undecided: 16%

[Middle-aged Europe]

Oh boy, Pauli is screwed... one of her family/marriage reform proposals got only the vote of a single convention delegate (maybe her own vote?).

[Tender Branson]

Oh boy, Pauli is screwed... one of her family/marriage reform proposals got only the vote of a single convention delegate (maybe her own vote?).

Yeah. I saw it on N-TV about an hour ago. Both of her proposals were defeated. She only got 1 vote (her own ! ROFL) out of over 1000 delegates. The attention whore will really shine in tomorrows leadership elections ...

For our US users, to get a glimpse on who we are talking about:

 

[Tender Branson]

Erwin Huber (58.2% - 558 Delegates) defeated Horst Seehofer (39.1% - 375 Delegates) and Gabriele Pauli (2.5% - 24 Delegates) for CSU-party-chairman.



From top to bottom: Huber, Seehofer, Pauli

Günther Beckstein received 96.6% of all delegates to succeed retiring Bavarian Prime Minister Edmund Stoiber.



Beckstein + Stoiber

[minionofmidas]

Pretty bad result for Huber. Though I had hoped for worse.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Pretty bad result for Huber. Though I had hoped for worse.

Yeah... there wasn't even a second ballot. Well, I guess we schould blame Pauli, because she made herself so unpopular with her proposals. When the third candidate gets only 2.5% of the delegate votes, the chances for a deadlock are rather slim.

[minionofmidas]

A second ballot, even if he had led, would have been so embarassing for Huber that he might not have even faced a second one. Huber's victory has been considered a certainty for months.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting news coming out of the Austrian state of Carinthia:

Governor Jörg Haider (BZÖ) may call early state elections in late 2008 instead of the regular elections to be held in early 2009, mainly because of highly positive polling numbers of his BZÖ and (because of) the turmoil in the state SPÖ:

The head of the state SPÖ, Gaby Schauning, is accusing her fellow Klagenfurt City SPÖ chair of voter fraud and asked him to step down, which he refuses, to become Mayor of Klagenfurt in 2009.

The twist is highly beneficial for Haider, because this renegade county chair may very well drag down the whole Social Democratic party and the hopes of Schaunig to become governor next year or in 2009.

The poll numbers for Social Democrats are already down because of that struggle. The matter will be solved in the state party convention in October this year. If Haider calls for elections in late 2008, it would bring the number of state elections in Austria to 3.

Latest Carinthia poll, released today (change compared with 2004 state elections):

BZÖ: 38% (+ 38%)
SPÖ: 34% (- 4.4%)
ÖVP: 11% (- 0.6%)
Greens: 9% (+2.3%)
FPÖ: 8% (- 34.4%)

Note: BZÖ+FPÖ split from the then united FPÖ in 2005. The united FPÖ got 42.4% in the 2004 state elections. So it would translate into a 3.6% gain (BZÖ+FPÖ) since then.

Update: The SPÖ and ÖVP state conventions took place today and Gaby Schaunig was re-elected as chair of the Social Democrats by almost 86% of the delegates. The cheating SPÖ county official (mentioned above) she accused of vote fraud stepped down before the convention. So, the internal SPÖ crisis is now solved and Schaunig may focus on toppling Governor Jörg Haider in the 2008/2009 state elections. The only problem is that Haider is very popular right now among Carinthian voters, with 55% having a favorable opinion of him and 35% having an unfavorable opinion. Schaunig is more polarizing, with 39% favorable and 42% unfavorable. In a direct vote for Governor, 44% would elect Haider, 21% Schaunig and 10% would vote for the ÖVP candidate. Also, the SPÖ still lags the BZÖ by 2% in a recent poll:

[Tender Branson]

Hmm. Just found out that there are statewide mayoral and town council elections in the state of Burgenland this year, and they are alreadly taking place on October 7. I always thought there are no state-wide elections in Austria this year ...

Well, election day is here and most polling stations already closed. With about 35% of all cities counted, the results are as followed (change compared with last elections in 2002):

SPÖ: 48.5% (-1.9%)
ÖVP: 46.8% (+3.6%)
FPÖ: 1.3% (-2.5%)
Others: 3.4% (+0.8%)

[Jens]

Hmm. Just found out that there are statewide mayoral and town council elections in the state of Burgenland this year, and they are alreadly taking place on October 7. I always thought there are no state-wide elections in Austria this year ...

Well, election day is here and most polling stations already closed. With about 35% of all cities counted, the results are as followed (change compared with last elections in 2002):

SPÖ: 48.5% (-1.9%)
ÖVP: 46.8% (+3.6%)
FPÖ: 1.3% (-2.5%)
Others: 3.4% (+0.8%)

Is there any threshold in state elections like in Germany?

[Tender Branson]

Hmm. Just found out that there are statewide mayoral and town council elections in the state of Burgenland this year, and they are alreadly taking place on October 7. I always thought there are no state-wide elections in Austria this year ...

Well, election day is here and most polling stations already closed. With about 35% of all cities counted, the results are as followed (change compared with last elections in 2002):

SPÖ: 48.5% (-1.9%)
ÖVP: 46.8% (+3.6%)
FPÖ: 1.3% (-2.5%)
Others: 3.4% (+0.8%)

Is there any threshold in state elections like in Germany?

The elections yesterday were no "state elections", they were "state-wide mayoral and city council elections" (community elections).

As for Austrian state elections, 2 of them taking place next year for sure, the treshold varies from state to state. In Lower Austria, Upper Austria and Burgenland there´s a 4% treshold for a party to enter the state parliament, in Salzburg, Vienna, Tyrol and Vorarlberg there´s a 5% treshold and in Styria and Carinthia a party needs a basic mandate in one of the electoral districts.

[Hash]

Greens?

[Tender Branson]

Greens?

Well, this was with 35% of the vote counted. The full results were:

Mayoral Elections:

SPÖ: 49.5% (-0.9%)
ÖVP: 44.4% (+1.2%)
FPÖ: 1.3% (-2.6%)
Greens: 0.4% (+0.3%)
Independent candidates: 4.1% (+2.0%)

Council Elections:

SPÖ: 47.7% (-1.2%)
ÖVP: 43.1% (-)
FPÖ: 2.9% (-2.1%)
Greens: 1.4% (+0.4%)
Independent candidates: 4.9% (+2.9%)

Turnout was 83%.

[Hash]

Why so low in local ballots?

[Tender Branson]

Why so low in local ballots?

A) The Green Party is particularly weak in the state of Burgenland. They are just getting 5% in state and federal elections, whereas in most other states in Austria the Greens get between 8% and 15%.

B) Because of that and because of the fact that ÖVP and SPÖ are still dominant and their incumbent mayors are hard to beat there´s a lack of Green contenders, which is why there´s a low share for them in community elections. I think out of the 2400 Austrian cities and towns, there aren´t lots of Green mayors in Austria - if any.

[minionofmidas]

Probably contested only a smattering of towns.