2008 State Elections in Austria and Germany

[minionofmidas]

Andrea Ypsilanti was planning to get confirmed as minister-president tomorrow. Today (and that’s "Breaking News" now), four state parliament members are planning to leave the SPD. Ypsilanti has no majority. The show’s over.

When will Hesse finally get a government and how will it look like? No idea.

They're not leaving the SPD, unless forced to. I guess they won't be - heck, they might even get renominated if this leads to new elections, and I can't see where else this could now lead (though I don't think they'll much enjoy any future term in the SPD parliamentary party).

[Franzl]

And Hesse and its reputation are saved!!!

[minionofmidas]

Reputation for chaos?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hesse update: Early elections in January. CDU will win. End of story.

[minionofmidas]

January 18th to be precise.

And the SPD outdoes itself in new ways - Ypsilanti will not run again, though will remain as party chair - That's not the "outdid in new ways" part. This much is actually perfectly sensible - the guy who will run, yeah well, I heard his name for the first time ever this morning on the radio, and I follow politics.

[Tender Branson]

A coalition of CDU-FDP is most likely then, right ?

A recent Infratest-Dimap poll shows:

CDU - 41% (+4)
SPD - 27% (-10)
Greens - 12% (+4)
FDP - 11% (+2)
The Left - 5% (nc)

[minionofmidas]

Who knows. There are, really, two ways this can go: Basically it's more likely to turn out as either something of a 2008 rerun or something of a 2003 rerun (except with a pretty strong left) than on in-between territory.

[Tender Branson]

Who knows. There are, really, two ways this can go: Basically it's more likely to turn out as either something of a 2008 rerun or something of a 2003 rerun (except with a pretty strong left) than on in-between territory.

More likely a re-run of 2003 I think. The new sacrificial lamb of the SPD, Thorsten Schäfer-Gümbel (who?), won't have much time to get the party back on track. If the election would be held in 6 months, it could be different, but as of now, probably landslide CDU.

[Franzl]

And to be honest, I don't particularly like Koch...and I don't want to really directly vote for him...but a CDU/FDP coaltion is a hell of a lot better than the alternative...so I think that means my vote will be FDP.