Outlook Worsens for GOP in Close House Races

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democracy Corps conducted four focus groups in two congressional districts -- NY-25 and IL-10 -- that Republicans won in closely contested elections last November. The discussions "revealed that voters' frustrations in the battleground have only deepened since the last election. President Bush has weakened his party even further, and Republicans who continue to support him, especially on Iraq, should face real electoral consequences next year."

But they also found warning signs for Democrats: "Optimism for the new Congress is quickly waning. Many voters still express a wait-and-see attitude, but most have now returned to the same concerns we heard last year -- accomplishing nothing, career politicians just trying to get re-elected, do nothing but argue with each other, lobbyists, wasteful, paid too much money, and most of all, out of touch."

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/07/30/outlook_worsens_for_gop_in_close_house_races.html

[HardRCafé]

Political Wire is the equivalent on the left to NewsMax on the right.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democracy Corps recently conducted surveys in key battleground districts for 2008 "and the results look like a rerun of 2006 -- an election when Democrats lost no incumbents and swept the competitive seats."

Key findings:

    * In the battleground of the 70 most competitive congressional districts (35 Democratic and 35 Republican-held), the Democratic incumbents, including the big class of freshmen, have quickly moved into dramatic leads in the named congressional ballot (52% to 40%.)
    * In the 35 Republican battleground districts, the named Republicans trail their generic Democratic opponent by 5 points, 49% to 44%.
    * In a poll across seven Republican-held U.S. Senate seats, the named U.S. Senators had a vote to re-elect of only 37% and were garnering only 44% of the vote against a generic challenger.
    * The overall image of the Democratic Party has fallen back from the honeymoon post-election period to essentially where it stood for the whole 2006 election period -- and that has been stable since April. On the other hand, the Republicans have weakened in the current period since April to their lowest thermometer score in the past half century.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/07/31/gop_facing_another_wave.html

[Adlai Stevenson]

The latest strategy memo from James Carville and Stan Greenberg touts a recent poll in the 70 most competitive Congressional districts which shows the Democrats "in a strong position to hold their gains from 2006 and move far into Republican territory in 2008."

"Indeed, Democrats hold an 18-point electoral advantage in their own districts while Republicans are losing their districts by 5 points overall -- 7 points in their most vulnerable districts, 51 to 44 percent."

Key finding: "Republican incumbents are paying a big price for the deep discontent in the country and for aligning with the President who is no more popular in the Republican districts than in the Democratic ones. "

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/08/03/democratic_seats_secure_republicans_at_risk.html